Met Office Hadley         5.5c.     Anomaly      0.6c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                     5.31c     Anomaly      0.32c

Netweather                  5.75c     Anomaly      0.65c

Peasedown St John    6.3c     Anomaly    0.33c.

Met Office Hadley        5.6c.      Anomaly      0.8c, provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     5.50c.    Anomaly      0.50c

Netweather                  6.02c     Anomaly      0.93c

Peasedown St John    6.5c      Anomaly        0.53c.

Met Office Hadley         5.7c      Anomaly      0.9c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                      5.51c    Anomaly        0.52c

Netweather                   6.07c    Anomaly        0.98c

Peasedown St John    6.5c     Anomaly     0.53c.

Until those pesky cold outliers disappear and until I see those long fetch SW'lies nailed in the ensembles post 28th - 31st I remain cautious. 

I think it's between Gez and myself now though. 

Col has had a remarkable year...a great pacemaker that's certainly kept the chasing pack on their toes ! 

I'm also pretty much resigned to losing out to Gusty too. The only hope now is that high pressure sits flat on top of England, giving chilly calm weather or unexpectedly retrogresses allowing a northerly.

ECM Mean at 168:

Latest CET tracker shows an expected final December CET of 5.98C.

Whether Idle's CET record of a cumulative error of 5.99C for the whole year is in the balance. A final December CET of 5.98C would give Gusty an error of 6.06C for 2019. 

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Latest CET tracker shows an expected final December CET of 5.98C.

Whether Idle's CET record of a cumulative error of 5.99C for the whole year is in the balance. A final December CET of 5.98C would give Gusty an error of 6.06C for 2019. 

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TABLE2

 Could easily tip the other way.  Finely balanced on a CET fulcrum.

Met Office Hadley         5.7c      Anomaly       0.9c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                      5.58c    Anomaly       0.59c

Netweather                   6.12c    Anomaly       1.03c

Peasedown St John        6.6c.     Anomaly       0.63c.      

Latest CET tracker shows an expected final December CET of 5.98C.

Whether Idle's CET record of a cumulative error of 5.99C for the whole year is in the balance. A final December CET of 5.98C would give Gusty an error of 6.06C for 2019. 

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Thanks for the update GW. 

I'm 'nearly' there. 

A very close call now also with regard to the 5.99 challenge. It could come down to one chilly night now. 

It won’t be a good finish for me but I was already too far down for one good month to make any difference anyway.  

Col, you’ve done great all year and it’s a shame the final month will let you down but that’s the weather for you!  Steve and Gez, great work by you both and what a competition!  Good luck!  

 

Thanks for the update GW. 

I'm 'nearly' there. 

A very close call now also with regard to the 5.99 challenge. It could come down to one chilly night now. 

To be only half a degree out on average each month for a whole year is astounding , I'd love to see the Met Office and the other big guns have a go at this competition I'm sure they'd do no better.

Met Office Hadley          5.7c.      Anomaly      09.c. Provisional to 22nd with Day 3 of the same Figure.

Metcheck                      5.63c      Anomaly      0.63c

Netweather                   6.17c      Anomaly      1.08c

Peasedown St John     6.6c     Anomaly    0.63c.                

Met Office Hadley        5.8c.     Anomaly      0.9c. provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                     5.67c    Anomaly        0.68c

Netweather                  6.23c    Anomaly        1.14c

Peasedown St John      6.7c      Anomaly      0.73c.             

I'll admit, I'm surprised that a very neutral background with the vortex taking until late month to become strong in the lower levels has been able to do more than neutralise the CET anomaly this month.

So ends an astonishing run of good CET fortune for me, albeit with some help from refined techniques, if I stop being super-humble for a moment. Looks like I should have at least used the older LTA as my basis, rather than the most recent with the downward skew by 2010.

I'm going to have a bit of a think over whether to take part in 2020. I'm not overly keen on how much it feels like a 'lucky dip', but on the other hand, the refined approach shows some promise for at least finishing inside the top ten unless there's a really huge gaff like there was in Feb this year.

The trick is being able to catch the unusual months when they happen, otherwise going for near-average CETs is inevitably the strongest approach. Incorrectly go for an unusual one and ouch, it really hurts!

Perhaps, one day in a less hectic future for me, I can try out a 'poll' type competition, where people go for certain categories of above or below average (probably 0.5*C wide, except for a middle one of -0.5 to +0.5*C), with correct estimates scoring the highest absolute of the category (e.g. if they went for -0.5*C to -1.0*C, they'd score 1.0 points). In principle, it sounds effective... but of course, reality could prove otherwise .

I know GW has mentioned an interest in trying out some different approaches too (also business-allowing). I'd not mind him trying this idea of mine out (in parallel to the usual?), if he fancied it. It's not patented, after all .

5.9c to the 24th

1.0C above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average
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Current high this month 6.0c to the 10th

Current low this month 2.4c to the 1st & 2nd

Metcheck       5.72c      Anomaly      0.72c

Netweather    6.32c      Anomaly      1.23c

Peasedown St John  6.8c   Anomaly   0.83c.

Yet another tediously mild December is unfolding. Will we ever see another 2010 or even a 1995/6? I expect to see the average shoot up when 1991-2020 is the reference point

I hope not.  Never again in my lifetime.