I'll admit, I'm surprised that a very neutral background with the vortex taking until late month to become strong in the lower levels has been able to do more than neutralise the CET anomaly this month.
So ends an astonishing run of good CET fortune for me, albeit with some help from refined techniques, if I stop being super-humble for a moment. Looks like I should have at least used the older LTA as my basis, rather than the most recent with the downward skew by 2010.
I'm going to have a bit of a think over whether to take part in 2020. I'm not overly keen on how much it feels like a 'lucky dip', but on the other hand, the refined approach shows some promise for at least finishing inside the top ten unless there's a really huge gaff like there was in Feb this year.
The trick is being able to catch the unusual months when they happen, otherwise going for near-average CETs is inevitably the strongest approach. Incorrectly go for an unusual one and ouch, it really hurts!
Perhaps, one day in a less hectic future for me, I can try out a 'poll' type competition, where people go for certain categories of above or below average (probably 0.5*C wide, except for a middle one of -0.5 to +0.5*C), with correct estimates scoring the highest absolute of the category (e.g. if they went for -0.5*C to -1.0*C, they'd score 1.0 points). In principle, it sounds effective... but of course, reality could prove otherwise .
I know GW has mentioned an interest in trying out some different approaches too (also business-allowing). I'd not mind him trying this idea of mine out (in parallel to the usual?), if he fancied it. It's not patented, after all .
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