Tuesday 15 Dec - Thursday 24 Dec

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further north and east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the east and northeast. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in the northern and western parts. Showers could become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Thursday 24 Dec - Thursday 7 Jan

Confidence is very low during this period, with forecast signals weak and rather mixed. On balance, most likely to remain changeable with periods of more settled and unsettled weather both likely. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely, particularly in the north and west, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. There is a possibility of drier weather and sunshine for a time during the festive period. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. There is a possibility that conditions may become wetter and milder at the start of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

-52C in Omyakon, Siberia - wow!
https://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/oymyakon/571464/weather-forecast/571464

Normal winter then for some. Rather mild though for omyakon that -52C is like 40C in June at death Valley.

Normal winter then for some. Rather mild though for omyakon that -52C is like 40C in June at death Valley.

Average low is -49C in December so not really mild, just a bit colder than average.

Wednesday 16 Dec - Friday 25 Dec

Remaining unsettled to start the period, with a mixture of blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the north and east. Outbreaks of rain or showers are still expected at times, mainly in southern and western parts, which may become wintry on high ground, and perhaps at lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to be around average for this time of year, however, there remains chance of turning colder again later in the period.

Friday 25 Dec - Friday 8 Jan

Confidence is low during this period, with forecast signals rather mixed. Outbreaks of rain and windy conditions are likely, particularly in the south and west, with wintry showers possible on high ground and maybe to lower levels at times. There is a possibility of more settled conditions, drier weather, and sunshine for a time during the festive period, particularly in the north and east. This will bring potential for fog, frost, and very cold nights. Temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, though some colder interludes are possible. Conditions may become wetter and milder once again going into January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

">https://www.accuweather.com/en/ru/oymyakon/571464/weather-forecast/571464

Normal winter then for some. Rather mild though for omyakon that -52C is like 40C in June at death Valley.

Really?

Worth watching the video of how young children walk to school as if it's the norm:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-2310730/Video-Russian-primary-children-classes-temperature-51C.html

 

Average low is -49C in December so not really mild, just a bit colder than average.

Much colder than average - see below:

Weather in December

Meanwhile - NYC could see it's first snow of the winter next week:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/early-signs-point-to-potential-blockbuster-northeast-snowstorm/864166

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Lots of rain to come, especially in south & west

_________________________________

Saturday 12 December – Sunday 20 December

Milder than recently but windy and very wet

Saturday 12th will start cloudy in many areas, as a weak area of low pressure shifts gently eastwards across the UK and away into the North Sea. Some residual showers or spells of drizzle, most persistent over northern areas. However, sunny spells and mostly dry conditions will develop across Wales and south-west England quite quickly in the morning, spreading north and east to reach much of the UK by mid-afternoon. Eastern coastal counties staying dull and damp all day. A cold night to come across central and eastern areas with a touch of frost possible before morning, under mainly clear skies.

Sunday 13th will see cloud, rain and strengthening south-westerly winds scything rapidly across the UK, leading to a very unsettled day. Heaviest rainfall over western hills. Turning milder from the south-west, leading into a much milder night than Saturday night.

Next week is looking very unsettled, as a conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure areas track north-eastwards overhead the UK at regular intervals. Strong winds at times in the south, but not as windy as you might expect over Scotland in this unsettled spell. Temperatures mostly on the mild side.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 27 December

Mild start, perhaps colder later. Staying wet.

As we head into the Christmas week, there will be little change. While cold polar air may well start to encroach over Scandinavia, our weather will still be coming in from the west, with a seemingly never-ending supply of Atlantic low pressure areas.

Some unusually cold air for the time of year is likely over Canada during mid-December and this may linger into the Christmas week. Very cold air here, combined with the residual warmth of the north-west Atlantic ocean, helps to accelerate the jet stream. This is a high altitude belt of westerly winds above the north Atlantic. The jet stream will frequently be aimed straight at the UK, so this will help to steer the low pressure areas our way.

Temperatures in the lead up to Christmas will be near or above the long term average. Northern areas could get the odd chilly night with a touch of frost, between the fronts. Rainfall amounts start to become a concern, especially across Wales and the south-west of England. At the moment, no individual rainfall event looks especially severe. Rather, it will be the steady accumulation of rainfall and saturation of the ground during December that threatens some flooding by this time.

Could we see a white Christmas? For most of us this seems unlikely, but for the higher ground in the north there is a better chance than in the last couple of years. Some recent forecast computer models suggest cold air could push south towards the UK by 26th and 27th December, but the signal is still not conclusive. Widespread UK snowfall seems very unlikely on Christmas Day itself, but some higher areas in the northern half of the UK have a slight chance.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 10 January

Wet. Any cold snap should not linger into 2021

The final few days of 2020 are expected to stay rather unsettled. If we are to see some cold air coming down from the north, then late December offers the best chance. High pressure will still be located to the north of the UK, near Iceland and Greenland, helping to keep the Atlantic low pressure track either overhead the UK or a bit to the south. This favours southern England and Wales to be wettest, a risk that snow could fall over some northern hills, while western Scotland could end up a drier than average. We will continue to watch the trends for late December, as the detail is still open to change.

Into early 2021 and the latest computer predictions suggest the low pressure track over the north Atlantic will stay active but will probably start to shift a bit further north again with time, allowing milder conditions to return. Whether we see a pattern similar to mid-December, with the wettest and windiest weather in the south and west, or we see a more classical stormy westerly pattern, with Scotland wettest and windiest, is still open to question. An extended dry, calm spell is unlikely.

Any threat of cold and snow in January? A higher chance than last January, but we may have to wait until later in the month.

Further ahead

The detail for the festive period weather should become clearer in the next update. We'll focus on the threat of heavy rainfall and also the chance of a late December cold snap.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Lots of rain to come, especially in south & west

_________________________________

Saturday 12 December – Sunday 20 December

Milder than recently but windy and very wet

Saturday 12th will start cloudy in many areas, as a weak area of low pressure shifts gently eastwards across the UK and away into the North Sea. Some residual showers or spells of drizzle, most persistent over northern areas. However, sunny spells and mostly dry conditions will develop across Wales and south-west England quite quickly in the morning, spreading north and east to reach much of the UK by mid-afternoon. Eastern coastal counties staying dull and damp all day. A cold night to come across central and eastern areas with a touch of frost possible before morning, under mainly clear skies.

Sunday 13th will see cloud, rain and strengthening south-westerly winds scything rapidly across the UK, leading to a very unsettled day. Heaviest rainfall over western hills. Turning milder from the south-west, leading into a much milder night than Saturday night.

Next week is looking very unsettled, as a conveyor belt of Atlantic low pressure areas track north-eastwards overhead the UK at regular intervals. Strong winds at times in the south, but not as windy as you might expect over Scotland in this unsettled spell. Temperatures mostly on the mild side.

Monday 21 December – Sunday 27 December

Mild start, perhaps colder later. Staying wet.

As we head into the Christmas week, there will be little change. While cold polar air may well start to encroach over Scandinavia, our weather will still be coming in from the west, with a seemingly never-ending supply of Atlantic low pressure areas.

Some unusually cold air for the time of year is likely over Canada during mid-December and this may linger into the Christmas week. Very cold air here, combined with the residual warmth of the north-west Atlantic ocean, helps to accelerate the jet stream. This is a high altitude belt of westerly winds above the north Atlantic. The jet stream will frequently be aimed straight at the UK, so this will help to steer the low pressure areas our way.

Temperatures in the lead up to Christmas will be near or above the long term average. Northern areas could get the odd chilly night with a touch of frost, between the fronts. Rainfall amounts start to become a concern, especially across Wales and the south-west of England. At the moment, no individual rainfall event looks especially severe. Rather, it will be the steady accumulation of rainfall and saturation of the ground during December that threatens some flooding by this time.

Could we see a white Christmas? For most of us this seems unlikely, but for the higher ground in the north there is a better chance than in the last couple of years. Some recent forecast computer models suggest cold air could push south towards the UK by 26th and 27th December, but the signal is still not conclusive. Widespread UK snowfall seems very unlikely on Christmas Day itself, but some higher areas in the northern half of the UK have a slight chance.

Monday 28 December – Sunday 10 January

Wet. Any cold snap should not linger into 2021

The final few days of 2020 are expected to stay rather unsettled. If we are to see some cold air coming down from the north, then late December offers the best chance. High pressure will still be located to the north of the UK, near Iceland and Greenland, helping to keep the Atlantic low pressure track either overhead the UK or a bit to the south. This favours southern England and Wales to be wettest, a risk that snow could fall over some northern hills, while western Scotland could end up a drier than average. We will continue to watch the trends for late December, as the detail is still open to change.

Into early 2021 and the latest computer predictions suggest the low pressure track over the north Atlantic will stay active but will probably start to shift a bit further north again with time, allowing milder conditions to return. Whether we see a pattern similar to mid-December, with the wettest and windiest weather in the south and west, or we see a more classical stormy westerly pattern, with Scotland wettest and windiest, is still open to question. An extended dry, calm spell is unlikely.

Any threat of cold and snow in January? A higher chance than last January, but we may have to wait until later in the month.

Further ahead

The detail for the festive period weather should become clearer in the next update. We'll focus on the threat of heavy rainfall and also the chance of a late December cold snap.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

They have backed away from it too - compared to last week's update:

------------------------------------------------

Monday 21 December – Sunday 3 January

A changeable outlook, with another cold snap.

A weather 'battleground' will develop across the north Atlantic and Europe during the Christmas week and the UK will be in the middle of it. Our last update suggested that a persistent and vigorous low pressure track across the north Atlantic would be the main driver of the UK's weather, delivering us all some mild, wet and windy weather through the Christmas period. This is still likely for some of the time, but there will probably be an interruption.

We can't ignore the prospect that the massive high pressure area over Scandinavia extends a bit further west for a time during the last 10 days of December. This would deflect low pressure areas near the UK further south, down over France and Spain. Cold air over Scandinavia and northern Russia would then find it much easier to flow towards the UK for a few days.

The longer range computer forecast models are struggling with which scenario will prevail during the final 10 days of December and there is a lack of agreement and consistency in the predictions. This of course reduces forecast confidence, but it does tell us that there is perhaps a greater chance for some changeable temperatures, compared with what was predicted last Friday.

With a low pressure track often close to the UK, an extended dry, calm and very cold spell still seems unlikely. But a short-lived cold intrusion, with frost, freezing fog and perhaps even some sleet and snow showers in a few areas, should make another appearance before the New Year. It's too early to be more specific on the exact timings yet, and crucially, if this colder weather will come in for Christmas Day.

Thursday 17 Dec - Saturday 26 Dec

Unsettled at first with a mixture of blustery showers and brighter spells for most of the UK, potentially falling as snow over mountains. The showers, accompanied by milder temperatures, will likely be heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east will experience drier spells. Windy conditions expected with potential coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a greater chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the north and east, accompanied by increasing incidence of frost and fog. Rain or showers may become less frequent, but will tend to become focussed across southern and western parts. Wintriness is most likely to be confined to higher ground, but there remains a chance of snow temporarily to low levels. Temperatures mild at first, probably slowly trending downwards through the period.

Saturday 26 Dec - Saturday 9 Jan

Confidence is extremely low with a large range of possible outcomes. The most frequent bouts of wind and rain, with milder conditions, are most probable across southern areas, whilst northern areas are likely to be a little colder and more settled overall, particularly at first. Into January, the most likely scenario is that milder and more unsettled weather overall will become established across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Met Office updates still showing the huge uncertainty moving forward. Must be some very mixed signals showing up.

Martin

Met Office updates still showing the huge uncertainty moving forward. Must be some very mixed signals showing up.

Martin

Yes but they continue to see zonality returning (if it ever goes away) by the end of the period.

 

Yes but they continue to see zonality returning (if it ever goes away) by the end of the period.

 

I’m sure they’ll do a “volte face” in due course.

Big upgrade for those in N America - along the eastern seaboard this is the AccuWEATHER forecast - keep in mind only a few days ago the weather for NYC on Wed 16th was for a low of 1c and a high of +6c with cloudy skies.

Now the forecast for Wed 16th are for lows of -3c highs of 1c with 12-18" of snow. Don't know what the record is for their daily snowfall accumulation but this must be close to it?

PS - I can't search the n. American thread.

Everything is still up in the air for Christmas although I don’t doubt things to be milder come the start of the new year

 

Average low is -49C in December so not really mild, just a bit colder than average.

FROM a hard core science perspective - does anyone know if covid-19 can survive in temperatures below -50c? With such extreme cold now in Siberia - I was wondering if the virus dies outdoors? Or can it spread outdoors in such cold temps?

Friday 18 Dec - Sunday 27 Dec

Unsettled conditions into Friday with heavy spells of rain clearing to a mixture of blustery showers and brighter spells. These unsettled conditions set to continue with showers likely heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east experiencing drier spells. Mild and windy across the UK, with coastal gales. Towards the end of the period, there is a greater chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the north and east, accompanied by increasing incidence of frost and fog. Rain or showers becoming less frequent and tending to become focussed across southern and western parts. Wintriness most likely confined to higher ground, but there remains a chance of snow temporarily to low levels. Temperatures mild at first, probably slowly trending downwards through the period.

Sunday 27 Dec - Sunday 10 Jan

Confidence is extremely low with a large range of possible outcomes. The most frequent bouts of wind and rain, with milder conditions, are most probable across southern areas, whilst northern areas are likely to be a little colder and more settled overall, particularly at first. Into January, the most likely scenario is that milder and more unsettled weather overall will become established across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 19 Dec - Monday 28 Dec

Unsettled conditions into Saturday with a mixture of sunny spells and showers, some heavy, especially in the western parts of the country. These unsettled conditions set to continue with showers likely heaviest in the west, whilst areas further east experience drier spells. Windy at times, with coastal gales, and staying mild. Towards the end of next week, there is a greater chance of more settled conditions, mainly in the north and east, accompanied by increasing incidence of frost and fog. Rain or showers becoming less frequent and tending to become focussed across southern and western parts. Wintriness most likely confined to higher ground, but there remains a chance of snow temporarily to low levels. Temperatures mild at first, probably slowly trending downwards through the period.

Monday 28 Dec - Monday 11 Jan

Confidence is extremely low with a large range of possible outcomes. The most frequent bouts of wind and rain, with milder conditions, are most probable across southern areas, whilst northern areas are likely to be a little colder and more settled overall, particularly at first. Into January, the most likely scenario is that milder and more unsettled weather overall will become established across the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 20 Dec - Tuesday 29 Dec

There is the potential for outbreaks of heavy rain in the south at the beginning of this period. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build to the west of the UK with many southern and western parts becoming predominantly dry and settled. The greatest chance of showers is in the north and perhaps in the east. There is a potential for strong winds in the far south at first; at other times any strong winds are likely to be confined to the north and perhaps the east. Prevalence of overnight fog and frost is likely increasing, with fog potentially slow to clear during the daytime. Temperatures either close to or slightly below normal.

Tuesday 29 Dec - Tuesday 12 Jan

High pressure will probably be remaining the dominant pattern for the UK over the last days of December. This means a good deal of dry weather for many parts but with overnight frost and fog, with fog potentially slow to clear. Some periods of wetter weather may develop at times, most likely in the east. Into January confidence is low, although a change to more unsettled conditions with Atlantic systems moving in from the west is looking likely to occur during the first half of January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/