I only hope for the MetO's sake that their forecast for winter temperatures quoted above turns out to be more accurate than their predictions for autumn temps over the whole season have turned out to be. They were right about September being above average, but that has not been the case with October and November even though the last few days have been somewhat milder in many areas.

40-45% probability of falling in the warmest category? That’s quite a vote for mild, by the standards of these very vague forecasts.

Didn't they make a similar prediction about the autumn as well as few months back?

Out of the last 100 months how many have logged a below average CET? 

Met office CPF 

November update

December to February

Temperature summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 5% and 10% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 40% and 45% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-djf-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For December and December-January-February as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-djf-v1.pdf

Depressing 

Out of the last 100 months how many have logged a below average CET? 

Not many for sure, but one doesn't have to go back that far in time to find one- only last month was below average unless I'm very much mistaken.

And there have been one or two notably cold months or periods in that time too, e.g March 2013 and the events of the end of the 2017/18 winter.

 

 

 

Depressing 

I wouldn't worry too much tbh, Saint.

As well as their predictions for temperatures this autumn not quite materialising as they thought, they didn't see the long severe cold spell of the 2009/10 winter coming until long after other forecasters had first seen it.

 

Not many for sure, but one doesn't have to go back that far in time to find one- only last month was below average unless I'm very much mistaken.

And there have been one or two notably cold months or periods in that time too, e.g March 2013 and the events of the end of the 2017/18 winter.

 Agree. But if the seasonal models suggest a mild winter and they are supported by recent climatology I don't think the Met Office have much choice. Independents may choose to look at other signals but most of them aren't backed by evidence and research, so the national provider can't really use them.

 

I wouldn't worry too much tbh, Saint.

As well as their predictions for temperatures this autumn not quite materialising as they thought, they didn't see the long severe cold spell of the 2009/10 winter coming until long after other forecasters had first seen it.

Or you could argue the UKM did see the signals but unlike many independent agencies they are more cautious and will need quite a high confidence threshold before committing - and quite rightly IMO.

Issued on 27th November 2009, this was the MetO's probability graphic for winter 2009/10 (NB - for Northern Europe and the UK):

The update, issued on 30th December 2009:

 

 Agree. But if the seasonal models suggest a mild winter and they are supported by recent climatology I don't think the Met Office have much choice. Independents may choose to look at other signals but most of them aren't backed by evidence and research, so the national provider can't really use them.

I agree generally there, Brian. What I would add is that I think it would be a mistake for any person to read one of these seasonal forecasts and then take them as gospel. One doesn't have to go back that far to find instances of MetO seasonal forecasts not entirely going to plan.

IIRC, the MetO went for a notable cold spell during the second half of last winter (this was mentioned on a daily basis in the 16-30 day updates for quite a while), yet what we had at the back end of the winter was the polar opposite. Then we have their thoughts for temperatures this autumn which I think they predicted to be above average overall. The first month was, but the weather patterns that have dominated both October and November and the accompanying temperatures have both rather gone against what the MetO had predicted.

People will make of these seasonal forecasrs what they will, but as I say, they shouldn't be taken as gospel.

Issued on 27th November 2009, this was the MetO's probability graphic for winter 2009/10 (NB - for Northern Europe and the UK):

The update, issued on 30th December 2009:

I rest my case.

 

Not many for sure, but one doesn't have to go back that far in time to find one- only last month was below average unless I'm very much mistaken.

And there have been one or two notably cold months or periods in that time too, e.g March 2013 and the events of the end of the 2017/18 winter.

May I think was slightly below too, and November will be below.

Just counted them up since Jan 2010 (relative to the 1961-1990 means)

January: 4/10 below average

Feb: 3/10

Mar: 2/10

Apr: 3/10

May: 4/10

June: 4/10

July: 3/10

Aug: 4/10

Sep: 3/10

Oct: 3/10

Nov: 3/9 (and likely to be 4/10)

Dec: 1/9

So assuming November comes out below average that's 38/119 months, or 32% of months being below average. In winter it's 27% below average, and in summer 37% below average 

December stands out as being above average every year except one - although of course that one year was quite far below 

So, according to the contingency planner's, this winter is twice as likely than average to be very mild, and half as likely as average to be very cold. 

 

 

 

Depressing 

But those are for the entire winter. I doubt that anyone would expect the entire 91 days to average out as 'very cold'; that's extraordinarily rare. 1962-63 was the last, I think. Climate change has added the well over half a degree since then, which makes it just that bit more difficult to achieve.

One very cold month and two mild ones would bring the winter into the 'above average' (2nd category) but most cold lovers would regard that as a decent winter.

Issued on 27th November 2009, this was the MetO's probability graphic for winter 2009/10 (NB - for Northern Europe and the UK):

The update, issued on 30th December 2009:

Q.E.D.

By their standards a poor one agreed. It would do many ‘forecasters’ in this little bubble of science we occupy to take these sort of data on board and realise that long range/seasonal forecasting has quite a way to go.

Wednesday 4 Dec - Friday 13 Dec

Much of England and Wales settled at first with areas of fog developing which will locally persist for much of the day on Wednesday and Thursday. Some bright or sunny spells are possible, particularly around coasts. Further northwest, increasingly unsettled conditions are expected to develop during Wednesday with wet and windy weather transferring slowly southeast through Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend and into the following week, the changeable theme is likely to persist with spells of more organised cloud, rain and stronger winds followed by some brighter, showery and colder interludes. The heaviest rainfall is likely across the northwest with snow over northern hills, possibly to lower levels at times. Temperatures are likely to remain at or slightly below normal with occasional milder interludes mainly in the south.

Friday 13 Dec - Friday 27 Dec

Although confidence is low for this period, the unsettled conditions are expected to continue, bringing some rain with interludes of cold but bright weather alongside a risk of showers. There is a continued chance of further wintry showers on high ground in the north. Temperatures will likely tend towards average, or just above, for this time of year. Towards the end of 2019 there is a possibility that we will see a transition to some longer, more settled and colder periods.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Since 62/63 I would at least add these

Think you could add 78/79 Peter still registered as the 28th coldest since records began – with the average temperature below zero.

Also 81/82

December 1981 and January 1982. December 1981 was the coldest for 100 years (a record that stood until 2010), with a lot of snow. The snowfall continued into 1982, with one snowstorm bringing chaos to the south of the UK – areas such as the Cotswolds, Wales  and Herefordshire saw record depths of snow and drifts could reach 23ft.

Tried to get a bus to Roding Valley no chance in lowland Essex had to walk 10 miles from a bus driver who gave up he turned around and said I can’t tell the fields from the the road mate.

And of course 10/11

 

But those are for the entire winter. I doubt that anyone would expect the entire 91 days to average out as 'very cold'; that's extraordinarily rare. 1962-63 was the last, I think. Climate change has added the well over half a degree since then, which makes it just that bit more difficult to achieve.

One very cold month and two mild ones would bring the winter into the 'above average' (2nd category) but most cold lovers would regard that as a decent winter.

Met Office keep changing forecast: - i can only put it down to their anticipation of a SSW and the effects of when it would take place on the troposphere i.e end of December - when they talk of 'A transition to longer settled colder periods!'
Meanwhile: - Terry Scholey has released his winter 2019/20 forecast which can be found on gavsweather vids:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• ‘Chopping and changing‘


• Impactful rain and snow possible


• Prolonged cold less likely

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/11/29/john-hammonds-month-ahead-ready-bumpy-ride/