Is it Dorian that’s affecting Jamaica?  Last night we had an amazing light show and constant thunder for a couple of hours over the sea to our North West but no rain or wind here.  It’s lovely for us but obviously I hope it doesn’t cause distress for other areas. 

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Dorian almost a Cat 5 now, but its looks like landfall in South Carolina after slicing the coast

 

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Is it Dorian that’s affecting Jamaica?  Last night we had an amazing light show and constant thunder for a couple of hours over the sea to our North West but no rain or wind here.  It’s lovely for us but obviously I hope it doesn’t cause distress for other areas. 

Might have just been normal storms in the area 

 

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Is it Dorian that’s affecting Jamaica?  Last night we had an amazing light show and constant thunder for a couple of hours over the sea to our North West but no rain or wind here.  It’s lovely for us but obviously I hope it doesn’t cause distress for other areas. 

Satellite shows Dorian well north of Jamaica

e.g. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/weather/2019/08/30/florida-hurricane-dorian-lightning-orig.cnn

 

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nearing cat 5 now with 150mph sustained

Florida looks in the clear now. North Carolina now landfall but changing every update

 

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Florida looks in the clear now. North Carolina now landfall but changing every update

 

Probably but Florida still in NHC cone of uncertainty so keep watching. Also the possibility of some big storm surges.

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Probably but Florida still in NHC cone of uncertainty so keep watching. Also the possibility of some big storm surges.

Another tweak back west on the official blend this morning with GFS among others taking Dorian onto the FL coast again. 

Regardless a major hurricane drifting up the coast is not good with respect storm surge - some severe coastal inundation likely from central FL to South Carolina next week.

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Amazing how it hugs the coast all the way up to New York but the eye never quite getting over land

 

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Satellite shows Dorian well north of Jamaica

e.g. https://edition.cnn.com/videos/weather/2019/08/30/florida-hurricane-dorian-lightning-orig.cnn

 

Yes, thanks and as Beast says, probably just the usual storms here as we’ve had nothing really out of the ordinary by Caribbean standards.  We fly home Wednesday morning and the flight path is usually down the Eastern seaboard, so I’m still watching the path of Dorian. 

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Now at CAT 5

Dorian consistently outperforming forecasts

 

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Yes, the sustained winds are now 160mph and it is about to hit the Abaco Islands (then later the Bahamas). I wouldn’t like to be in its path given the incredible speeds and what is likely to be a massive storm surge,

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NHC have just updated to say Dorian is now at 175mph!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/011330.shtml 

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Where is Q? Surprised he hasn't contributed to this thread

Scary press release just now

 

000 WTNT65 KNHC 011330 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches). The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 200 mph - Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours. SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

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Now 180mph and a new modern day record for Bahamas

And increased again to 185mph on the latest update. Remarkable.

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And increased again to 185mph on the latest update. Remarkable.

That's just 5 MPH less than the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record - putting it in joint second place.

Those sorts of winds (which will be gusting well into the 200s) are simply incomprehensible.

To put it into perspective, it's equivalent to an F3 tornado... but unlike one of those, it'll linger for longer.

Wiki says the following effects from an F3 tornado, btw:

"Roofs and some walls torn off well-constructed houses; trains overturned; most trees in forest uprooted; heavy cars lifted off the ground and thrown. "

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We’ve seen a number of recent hurricanes intensify far more quickly than forecast, make berlines for the US coast, but often then weaken more rapidly than modelled when approaching landfall, sometimes when models show them strengthening. I’ve been wondering whether this is just chance or:

- the environmental conditions have changed (deeper warm water content, higher atmospheric humidity), though why then the frequent weakening at the end?
- we are just monitoring these storms more intensively and noticing mid ocean strengthening more than we would have done in the past

In any case this one really has intensified very quickly. Remains to be seen if it holds its intensity. I suspect not based on recent years but who knows. We’re due an EWRC at some point.

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We’re due an EWRC at some point.

A what?

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A what?

Eyewall replacement cycle.

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