We’ve seen a number of recent hurricanes intensify far more quickly than forecast, make berlines for the US coast, but often then weaken more rapidly than modelled when approaching landfall, sometimes when models show them strengthening. I’ve been wondering whether this is just chance or:
- the environmental conditions have changed (deeper warm water content, higher atmospheric humidity), though why then the frequent weakening at the end?
- we are just monitoring these storms more intensively and noticing mid ocean strengthening more than we would have done in the past
In any case this one really has intensified very quickly. Remains to be seen if it holds its intensity. I suspect not based on recent years but who knows. We’re due an EWRC at some point.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl