It's interesting to see how the Lib share of the vote has all but evaporated since their power sharing adventure started.
Were their policies so much more left that their supporters have now deserted them for crossing the divide? Were their policies on the right side of the political equation, but a coalition with the Tories unthinkable?
What would their share of the vote look like now had they been part of a Labour led coalition Government ?
It strikes me that the dillusional euphoria of the pre-election hustings, the opinion poll standings at that time and the dreams of their supporters that the Libs could actually form a Government themselves, has worked against them.
Whatever juggling you try to divise a system to make the voting system more representative of the voters wishes, the Libs will always be periphal in a two party system.
A lot (a majority?) of the rise in Lib Dem support over the past 2 elections came from traditional supporters of Labour, who became disillussioned with the policies of NuLabour and saw the Lib Dems as having policies more in keeping with their principles. Look at the places where Lib Dem vote share grew and it's predominantly in places where Labour are/were strong.
Whilst I never viewed the Lib Dems as any sort of leftist party, they did have some policies that could be described as generally redistributive (ie taking more money off the wealthy and less off the less wealthy) and this struck a chord with many toward the left who saw NuLabour as a Tory-Lite party.
The 2010 Lib Dem manifesto contained such policies as closing the Capital Gains Tax loophole, a 'Mansion Tax', scrapping higher rate tax relief on pension contributions, and blitzing 'non dom' parasites with much higher tax bills. These four policies made me seriously consider voting Lib Dem last election - indeed, I only changed my mind once actually stood there with ballot paper in my hand (I'm so glad I did!).
So let's look at these policy pledges now. The mansion tax has been binned totally. CGT has been amended slightly, but nowhere near to bringing it in line with income tax rates. The changes to pension relief are even less cutting than NuLabour's proposals were. There is some vague promise to 'review' how non-doms are taxed (to be fair, Lib Dem Lord Oakeshott is one of the biggest critics of the non-dom tax dodge, but I fear he'll be twarted by vested interests)
Meanwhile, whilst allowing their plans to target tax-increases at the wealthy to be jettisoned, the Lib Dems have given their support to the Tory policies to hack at the public sector and the welfare budget.
Whilst I'm sure that the majority of long-standing Lib Dem supporters will stay with them, those from the left who saw them as an alternative to NuLabour will scurry away.
It's worth remembering that through the late 80's and 90's, the Lib Dems were the chosen refuge of centrist Tories who were disillusioned with the path the Tory Party was taking. I recall the Lib Dems winning several Tory seats in by-elections, overturning chunky majorities in some. At the time, they sat between the Tories and Labour on the political spectrum. As they moved to the left, their support in the south and south east ebbed away somewhat, but was more than tempered with the gains further north from disaffected Labour voters. It will interesting to see how the party positions itself as the next few years role on. What the hell will their manifesto look like for 2014/15??? If they follow the path their leadership has taken in adopting and supporting largely right-wing Tory Party policy, the the irony could be that they tempt back some voters who waiver between Tory and Lib Dem support. If they try to move back to the left, they may find far less rich pickings as not only will people toward the left simply not trust them after their shenanigans with the Tory Party, but people on the left may be more prepared to give Milliband a go.
Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan