This is going to set the cat amongst the pigeons a bit; ICM/Guardian Con 37% (+2) Lab 36% (-2) Lib-Dem 16% (-2) Con Lead 1%
An interesting poll Gavin; outwardly poor for the opposition, but it seems the main story is the Lab-Lib trading of support. Polling for the Tories has been remarkably consistent since the begining of the year. Although their poll range has been 32 to 40%, they've basically bobbled around 35 to 38, so no real cat amongst any pigeons there.
Over on the UK polling blog Anthony comments that the ICM poll held even more fascinating detail:-
"Looking at the rest of the poll, ICM also found a significant movement of support in favour of the scale of the government’s cuts. While 35% people still think the cuts go too far, this is down from 45% in November. 28% think the balance is about right, and 29% think the cuts are not severe enough, up by 15 points since November. That last figure here is particularly startling – suggesting a third of people would like even bigger cuts. Compare it to YouGov’s regular trackers on whether the cuts are too deep, too shallow or about right. YouGov too have shown the proportion of people thinking the cuts are too deep falling (down to 44% from 51% a month or two back), but they only find 9% thinking the cuts aren’t big enough."
Picking the bones out of this...it looks like the great British public may have bought Osborne's fabrication that he's given them some tax cuts; showing that a section of the electorate cannot give up their addiction to tax cutting. WRT the 29%...are these 'real tories' getting a little dissatisfied with the coalition's pace?
All very interesting.