Tomorrow is looking interesting for this part of the world once the front clears. There is the potential for everything but the kitchen sink. If the air is unstable enough we'll get a fair bit of lightning as the cells bump into the Pennines. I'd imagine a warning will be issued this morning.

It could all come to nothing put those doughting the setup, have a look at the 29th January 2015. That brought 3 inches of snow in just one hour here as the showers banded together. Even places like Stockport/South Manchester had proper snow.

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Remember that 29th January 2015 event.

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Polar Low mischief in 48 hours?

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06z Euro4... 6am Wednesday. 

This is normally quite conservative so I'm surprised by this.

Decent snow cover for Glasgow, with snow cover possible in Manchester, Birmingham and parts of the SE.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

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I have found that the Euro4 can often overdo the snow in certain circumstances, but nonetheless I believe it looks decent for some parts, most notably in the shower NWly following the front. Here? A little drizzle then dry!

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I have found that the Euro4 can often overdo the snow in certain circumstances, but nonetheless I believe it looks decent for some parts, most notably in the shower NWly following the front. Here? A little drizzle then dry!

Interesting one this.

Last winter we had a near perfect Arctic WNW'ly with -10C uppers knocking on the door of Liverpool.

Saint and co may remember the one. IB was in Manchester at the time too.

Euro4 was never on board and refused to show any lying snow for this part of the world. I was baffled and assumed it must be wrong, but all we got in the end was a bit of hail. The flow was simply too strong and I realise we do better here when the winds are lighter.

If this model predicts lying snow (not just the random pink shading), then I do tend to take notice. Maybe it's just having a moment.

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It's not just EURO4, the various other hi-res models seems to be toying about with the idea of Kent having a short spell of sleet and snow on Tuesday night & into Wednesday morning, all associated with a very shallow low pressure over the North Sea while uppers are still around -7 c.

Cold rain for my South Kent harbour location, then.   

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Interesting one this.

Last winter we had a near perfect Arctic WNW'ly with -10C uppers knocking on the door of Liverpool.

Saint and co may remember the one. IB was in Manchester at the time too.

Euro4 was never on board and refused to show any lying snow for this part of the world. I was baffled and assumed it must be wrong, but all we got in the end was a bit of hail. The flow was simply too strong and I realise we do better here when the winds are lighter.

If this model predicts lying snow (not just the random pink shading), then I do tend to take notice. Maybe it's just having a moment.

Yes, when the Euro 4 shows no cover, it is not a good sign normally. The frontal snow last February, Euro 4 was showing snow but no cover and that is what happened.

 

 

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Watching the Met Office weather forecast by Alex Deakin - Notice the snow showers behind the front look more frequent or potent compared to the BBC precipitation graphics which show little if any wintry showers for tomorrow:

I would say the Met Office have it right? - what would you say?

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The high res WRF is going for widespread and heavy showers tomorrow especially for western parts. AROME reckons they will be a mix of sleet and snow. So for lower levels expect some snowflakes (especially in the heavier showers) but don't expect settling snow (or only tempory deposits). Anywhere above 150m should see accumulations though.

 

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Watching the Met Office weather forecast by Alex Deakin - Notice the snow showers behind the front look more frequent or potent compared to the BBC precipitation graphics which show little if any wintry showers for tomorrow:

I would say the Met Office have it right? - what would you say?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-iwmmxnDz0

 

Thats interesting.  It aligns with no other model i have access to, so either the Met's Hi-RES model is amazing, or its way off the mark.

 

Time will tell.

 

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Thats interesting.  It aligns with no other model i have access to, so either the Met's Hi-RES model is amazing, or its way off the mark.

 

Time will tell.

 

 

Now watch the BBC forecast if you scroll down-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

 

- see the difference esp the re precipitation amounts/type and intensity (or lack of) and compared that with Alex Deakin's Met Office forecast:

 

 

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This brought around 5cm of a snow and graupel mix during the afternoon to a large part of NW England/N Midlands (the high then toppled over us, bringing clear skies and a freeze-up of the lying snow):

 

 

Although there's key differences in the set-up, the 850 profile and thickness for tomorrow look very similar. So then it comes down to the intensity of the ppn.

 

 

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Now watch the BBC forecast if you scroll down-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

 

- see the difference esp the re precipitation amounts/type and intensity (or lack of) and compared that with Alex Deakin's Met Office forecast:

 

 

 

The ICON on TWO seems to be relatively low res compared the WX charts, which seems almost idential to the HIRES Metoffice output:

 

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu&region=uk&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=015&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

 

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UKV latest take 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw2hzs1u#?date=2019-01-22

Very strong signal for snow tomorrow now. Unsure if this is the 12z data.

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ICON has upped its tracking of a small Low pressure running down the irish sea tomorrow evening.

 

This potentially could increase shower activity beyond what is currently being forecast.  

 

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Met have posted an update for this evening and overnight into tomorrow. Gotta say it looks snowier than all the charts ive been looking at today.

This could have a few surprises for some

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVstU6ODHhM

 

 

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sVstU6ODHhM" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/21/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012306_2112.gif

Hmmmm. Significant upgrade at the last minute - sweet spot appears to be East Cheshire.

Looks like streamer potential. 

 

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https://www.instagram.com/p/Bs5IMpQj9h0/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1eg7okdtsdevw

My last 3 days in Grasmere, more to come here in the next 48 hrs

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It looks like the high ground in the northwest (especially) Scotland could be in the firing line for quite a lot of snow in coming days and weeks. Many eastern areas will remain much drier once the front moves through. Whether that front brings rain or snow for everyone remains to be seen (except here where drizzle is likely).

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