Interesting one this.

Last winter we had a near perfect Arctic WNW'ly with -10C uppers knocking on the door of Liverpool.

Saint and co may remember the one. IB was in Manchester at the time too.

Euro4 was never on board and refused to show any lying snow for this part of the world. I was baffled and assumed it must be wrong, but all we got in the end was a bit of hail. The flow was simply too strong and I realise we do better here when the winds are lighter.

If this model predicts lying snow (not just the random pink shading), then I do tend to take notice. Maybe it's just having a moment.

It's not just EURO4, the various other hi-res models seems to be toying about with the idea of Kent having a short spell of sleet and snow on Tuesday night & into Wednesday morning, all associated with a very shallow low pressure over the North Sea while uppers are still around -7 c.

Cold rain for my South Kent harbour location, then.   

Yes, when the Euro 4 shows no cover, it is not a good sign normally. The frontal snow last February, Euro 4 was showing snow but no cover and that is what happened.

I would say the Met Office have it right? - what would you say?

The high res WRF is going for widespread and heavy showers tomorrow especially for western parts. AROME reckons they will be a mix of sleet and snow. So for lower levels expect some snowflakes (especially in the heavier showers) but don't expect settling snow (or only tempory deposits). Anywhere above 150m should see accumulations though.

Thats interesting.  It aligns with no other model i have access to, so either the Met's Hi-RES model is amazing, or its way off the mark.

Time will tell.

Now watch the BBC forecast if you scroll down-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

- see the difference esp the re precipitation amounts/type and intensity (or lack of) and compared that with Alex Deakin's Met Office forecast:

This brought around 5cm of a snow and graupel mix during the afternoon to a large part of NW England/N Midlands (the high then toppled over us, bringing clear skies and a freeze-up of the lying snow):

Although there's key differences in the set-up, the 850 profile and thickness for tomorrow look very similar. So then it comes down to the intensity of the ppn.

The ICON on TWO seems to be relatively low res compared the WX charts, which seems almost idential to the HIRES Metoffice output:

https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=default&model=icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu,icon_eu&region=uk&chart=overview,850temp,wind10mkph,snowdepth&run=12&step=015&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

UKV latest take 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw2hzs1u#?date=2019-01-22

Very strong signal for snow tomorrow now. Unsure if this is the 12z data.

ICON has upped its tracking of a small Low pressure running down the irish sea tomorrow evening.

This potentially could increase shower activity beyond what is currently being forecast.  

Met have posted an update for this evening and overnight into tomorrow. Gotta say it looks snowier than all the charts ive been looking at today.

This could have a few surprises for some

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVstU6ODHhM

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sVstU6ODHhM" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/euro4/2019/01/21/basis12/ukuk/weas/19012306_2112.gif

Hmmmm. Significant upgrade at the last minute - sweet spot appears to be East Cheshire.

Looks like streamer potential. 

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bs5IMpQj9h0/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=1eg7okdtsdevw

My last 3 days in Grasmere, more to come here in the next 48 hrs

Not sure i have seen a euro4 chart look so positive for the NW.  Somewhere looks to get pasted tomorrow. I think you will see some lying snow by evening too.

Ties in with the latest Met video forecast 

That's not right. The charts on TWO use the EU Nest which is the highest resolution version of ICON.

My apologies. Either way ICON seemed to tie well with the METO video

Looks unusually good.

Last time it did so was Jan 2015. Fingers crossed :-) 

The wind direction will be critical - I find a WNW breeze usually hits the sweet spot for streamers here. Wind speed will also be a factor in determining just how much evap. cooling we get in the showers. Winds were very light here back on Friday where we had some moderate to heavy wet snow - the temp. had dropped 3 C in the precipitation. Certainly looks an interesting day - even if it's just for convective potential. No snow warning (yet?) tho' I see the ice warnings are out for many areas. 

Awaiting next batch of following showers, hopefully snow

On the subject of ICON here is the 18z snow depth forecast:

18z HIRLAM below:

Still let's not be negative