As in 'Carlsberg don't do let-downs but if they did.....'

Or Domino’s? 

While we wait the ECM 12z is coming out and maintains the theme of a switch to more unsettled conditions midmonth. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_192_1.png 

EDIT: I actually prefer the next chart

No need for a 300+ club or any nonsense about the changes being at 384hrs. They were a week or so ago.

Plus the trend toward ever-more southerly tracking lows, and the Azores High retreating to.. errrr, The Azores. 

Indeed -10c 850s into Scotland by day 9 the 17th.

'If Carlsberg did..."  must have been one of the most successful marketing campaigns ever. 

oh yes, am liking that chart lol 

I'd nominate Blackcurrant Tango myself for directly causing an earthquake in the UK's political and economic system.

Anyway, ECM 240, and the Jet's on its Jollies into Africa.

I reckon so Rob, that 240 chart looks like LP’s ready to slide into very cold air 

Nice upgrades today and cold spell brought forward to the 17th!

I wonder if it might have successfully completed its testing period, and with effect from the 12Z has actually superseded the old model as the operational, but NOAA forgot to tell anyone. If so, then there won't be any more parallel runs. Burt I suppose a more likely possibility is that, with the US government shutdown, NOAA no longer has enough money to run the parallel model in addition to the operational one. All speculation, of course, and it will probably just turn out to be some hardware fault delaying things.

The target date I have read was by the end of January so I think it is probably just a blip rather than the fact the GFSP (FV3) has replaced the GFS.

ECM @ 240 Shows uppers of -7 and -9c widely at 850hpa with -10c knocking on the door of N. Scotland:

GEFS finally starting to look less like "interpretable scatter" and instead more  to "something is brewing"

Finally... its taken a while

Anyone else having this issue?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=3&run=12&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=3&mv=0 

It's bang on target that the NWP is starting to pick up on the possible trend to colder conditions. The SSW video on the Media thread features a good graphic showing how the downwelling of reversal/disruption was due to hit the troposphere during this period (well worth a watch).  

There's  a note on the Meteociel site saying 'GFS(P) is late'

Nice to see.

Aberdeen- the mean dips below -5 on 17th and stays below it; in London, it takes until 20th but still stays down.

This all fits well with earlier suggestions by several MOD posters that this would be about the time we'd see any tropospheric predictions following the well-modelled stratospheric event.

All to watch for still, though, as recent cold has all been about 10°-30° E of us so far- but that may be due to other cooling events.

If you watch the ECM 12z animation the whole NH sypnotics go from clockwise pressure flow into reverse just after 168hrs, and frozen air spills out of Russia. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&time=240&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91150-model-output-discussion-7th-january-onwards/?page=17&tab=comments#comment-3956325 

If only I could post up images on here

yes indeedy - hope reality follows the model :)

I would advse caution at this stage - cold spells counted down from T200 plus almost never verify, and we see spanners thrown in the works when we come inside T200.

Unexpected height rises over Iberia etc..we've all been around long enough to know that a couple of topplers could be all that comes of this before the jet fires up. Certainly never assume a meridional will sustain.

say it pleeeese