The Azores High is not be underestimated.  It continues to be a dominant force in our weather, this FI snapshot from 0zGFS run for 23rd January (into the last third) is indicative of how it can readily throw very mild air over the UK from the SW approaches.  More of a wedge than a slice. I would be very cautious about the prospects for cold weather dominating later in the month, all the while the Azores High is alive and kicking.

Yes - but the op was a very clear outlier at that point. Possible but currently an unlikely outcome.

Edit: Removed outdated GFSP chart

Overall no change in trend or timescale this morning.

That's yesterday's run?

A good summary. Not much has changed in the outlook this morning. The 00z GEFS suite screams cold zonality out to the end of January with the Azores high poking its nose in now and again to calm things down and raise temperatures. Pretty bog standard Winter fare. Good for the Scottish ski resorts who have had a grim season to date.

Its way too far away to be confident of anything.  Im highlighting the uncertainty, and drawing attention to the dangers of believing ensembles at a long distance.  I suspect the Azores High will end up scuppering the first attempt(s) to establish cold from the N/ NE.

Ah yes, so it is! WZ normally highlights the runs in red when they are out of date. The other points still stand and you know something is brewing when we start to highlight the milder options in FI as possibilities rather than the main body of evidence.

Of course absolutely nothing is guaranteed but the timescale and trend have been very very consistent for ten days or so now - Mid-month change to more unsettled and then cold shots, with some options for more.

Yesterday's GFSP 06z was the last run. The 12z and 18 z didn't run. It's conceivable the 00z may appear but it is very unlikely now.

Yes, Meteociel have stated it will not be available today.

Charts not as spectacular this morning but still not bad . The start of winter though looks like its been pushed back from the 17th to the 20th but nothing to concerning yet. But plenty of time for it to go wrong nothing is ever guaranteed in this country when it comes to cold weather. Even when the background signals are so good.

Agree about the uncertainty - although there have been quite consistent signals for a change to cold zonality in 10 days time. Obviously that brings the chance of winds from south of west at times, but mainly Pm and occasional incursions of Arctic air. Certainly no solid evidence yet of blocking.

The ensembles are just a tool for testing the stability of the operational evolution. Even then they’re of very limited value once you get out beyond 7 days. Looking for clustering and consistency is the best bet, IMO.

The 18z run is on Meteociel this morning. 

Yes, sorry the 18z data is available from NCEP. Yesterday's 12z and today's 00z isn't .

Things progressing today if you look at the NH view - large high developing over the pole. The switch to a tanking AO could be quite rapid.

For potential this is excellent - hopefully we get that to slide pv to split nicely and the cold to get a good route to UK - too much to ask?!!

That is something which has been highlighted in a number of Gavin P.'s recent videos which also tell us that whilst the SSW event which we have just had will improve our chances of getting a much colder second half of the winter, this should really just be seen as something which favours a colder second half of the the winter, rather than something which actually guarantees that (in the same way that we view things like solar activity and ENSO as factors which either favour or go against our chances of a cold winter when we are trying to make a prediction for any coming winter before we actually enter into it).

Looking at it in that manner, I'm not surprised that a lot of the short term model output in particular, continues to be rather disappointing from a cold and snow perspective and I wouldn't even be surprised if this continues to be the case for the rest of this so-called "winter". With the Atlantic SSTs set up for a positive NAO, this can only mean that the Azores High is going to be much stronger for the time of year than what we would like it to be and as of yet, I'm not fully convinced that the SSW event will be enough on its own to change that.

Then as long as that rather stubborn Azores High remains in place, I can only see it being more difficult for any northern blocking which arises out of that SSW event, to be of any benefit to us here in the UK from a cold perspective (i.e. we are more likely than not, to just be on the mild side of that block as a result).

Yes note the distorted jet axis as well - 

Extreme NW / SE allignment west of the UK ...

Thats always good news for UK cold--

This is looking interesting. This is at 222hrs as well!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_222_2.png

EDIT:

It does go a bit messy. But this is usually a sign the model is struggling. This is a good thing

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_240_2.png

Looks like another flat op run. The pendulum swings back away from cold thanks to the limpet Azores high. Probably quite good for northern hills though!