Ensembles still looking rather pathetic in comparison to what we want if we’re to rival last years beast.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

It's poor! How come para it's not updating on wetterzentrale?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=360&run=6&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=6&mv=0

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

GEFS06z isn't bad for cold but it's still the case of a few big dippers and none of them really staying in the trench.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

FI (of course) but very rare to see sub -25c 850s engulfing the entirety of Iceland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU06_384_2.png

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

FI (of course) but very rare to see sub -25c 850s engulfing the entirety of Iceland:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAEU06_384_2.png

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

No support for that in the GEFS, but that's still a very snowy looking ensemble for Reykjavik!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

CFSv2 still goes for a blocked Feb:

Look at all the above average pressure to the north of us esp over Iceland and east of Greenland! Unfortunately I can't enlarge the map chart but this looks very blocked!

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Except you won't get maxima that low (3-4c) in London from a north-westerly and certainly not the ice days that are appearing.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It was Yesterday's that's why. 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Good spot Tally. 2m temps looking much colder on the latest update too:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Also the cold lasts into feb.

I think at this point it may be how weak and how long the Azores high can p1ss off for a while.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Hmm, fair point, I was 5 degrees out with the scale! 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

"IBM announced today that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models"

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The Azores high has ruined countless winters since the 80s cold spells,is this due to global warming ? but the high has seemed to have shifted Northwards the past 30 odd yeas or so.

Originally Posted by: Argyle77 

IBM Introducing the World’s Highest-Resolution Global Weather Forecasting Model

"IBM announced today that they will be introducing the world’s highest-resolution global weather forecasting model later in 2019--the IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (GRAF). The model will be the first hourly-updating weather model that is able to predict something as small as a thunderstorm virtually anywhere on the planet.

The current top global forecasting models, the European (ECMWF) model and the U.S. GFS model, subdivide the global atmosphere into grid boxes that average 9 kilometers and 13 kilometers on a side, respectively, then solve the mathematical equations of atmospheric flow to generate a forecast for each of those grid cells. The new GRAF model employs a variable-resolution grid, resembling a honeycomb, that can be configured with higher resolution over areas of particular interest (Figure 1). Over land areas, the GRAF grid elements will have average resolutions of 3 km, which is about 3 - 4 times greater than the European and GFS models"

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

but will it have a pub run?

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

It'll have two or three of them.

Just think... new output every hour... it's just what the meteorological world has been crying out for...

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow