I wouldn't be expecting snow from that down here TBH:

as ever jam tomorrow. In the meantime we have pleasure of looking forward to some wintry showers if we are lucky. All standard fayre I suppose for the UK winter model watcher. 

You can shout it from the highest steeple, but some will still refuse to hear it.

Definitely slider potential here. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_186_1.png

The 18z solution would be the best case for cold + snow potential with that area of deep cold creeping south out of the pole...

A slightly quicker evolution to cold on the 18z, at least for the north!

I was suggesting the likelihood of wintriness, particularly with elevation; certainly not lowland snow in southern Britain. That opens up the potential for something wintry in the Chilterns, for example.

Certainly a colder Op on the 18z, be interesting to see where this sits in the ensemble suite!

What a weird looking hp to the north of us. Not a scandi or GH. But i think moreover a signal that the atlantic is going quite. Less LPs developing out west.

Edit... this could go full beast ... alot more energy to the south and east than to the west.... will the HP relocate to the north....

This cud we be a stella finish

Some support for the Op on the 18z and the Control is even colder on the short ensembles together with a couple of even colder runs!

One thing to keep in mind is how close the deep cold actually is.

Even in the most potent of northerlies do you rarely see the 0C isotherm so far south over the sea. Its at the latitude of the Fareo and close to shetland. The cold air in the atlantic arctic is not forecast to go anywhere fast. Although, currently, no cold spell is anticipated were there to be a slight shift we could be looking at a very potent northerly indeed.

The signal for increasingly cold weather grows stronger on the ECM 12z ensemble:

Now moving into the more reliable timeframe - and the scatter has decreased markedly in the last 24 hours.

Come back to see any signs of a block in FI run on 18z ...? nope:LP over Greenland! The GFS Op is so inconsistent! 

I don't want to sound pessimistic for cold and snow but i am really surprised to see these charts/set ups cropping up during the last week of Jan 25th):

Poor runs this morning, and the GFS in FI goes on to really strengthen the PV again.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&runpara=1 

Truly stunning run best of the winter.

I could lose four fingers and a thumb and still count the number of days like that I've experienced in the Chilterns on one hand. A "cold" west / northwesterly in these parts means 8C and sunny spells with not a radar blob in the vicinity.  

Not much deep cold but plenty of snow rows

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

GEFS 00z in its later stages has more of a twelve bore look to it than yesterday's 12z update. It could be just be background noise or we could be seeing a trend towards more mixed conditions during the last third of the month. The latter would fit in with the recent updates from Exeter and the idea of a fairly mobile but at times cold pattern. My view hasn't change significantly in the last 24 hours - colder with the best chance of significant snow in the north. Roll the dice in the south and you need a 5 or 6 from this.   

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London