The Met Office video, posted in the media thread, was interesting in that SSWs occur quite regularly: on average every other winter but sometimes twice in a winter.  The point was also made that a wind reversal in the stratosphere is just one part of a complex jigsaw when it comes to the troposphere.  The emphasis was put on a shift in the probability of blocking, not in any way a certainty.

The GFSP is due to take over the op permanently in short order, is it not?

I'm sure I recall someone saying it would flip to become the op around this time. 

It’s due to go live this month.  I guess the clue will be when the parallel option disappears from the options.

I think a lot of the reason for the expectations of some on here recently for a quick shift to stella-looking charts which RobK alluded to in his post on the last page is because of the pretty quick response there was in the troposhere last February to the SSW that took place that month. The main differences this time are that this SSW that has just happened has taken place rather earlier in the winter and thus at a time when the polar vortex is normally in a stronger state than it is im February. By the time last Feburary's SSW took place, the sun was already two months into its' journey northwards and thus the vortex would have been weakening.

GFS P is due to take over on Jan 19th

They must of realised its nailed it this morning. 

GFS ensemble members all over the place too. Interesting that the toppling high theme continues. Perhaps a sign that bursts of cold will be short and sharp? It all seems very finely balanced...

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) January 10, 2019

It makes good sense Neil (not that that may be helpful).

Hopefully things will become a bit more widespread in terms of wintriness in the coming few days. There is a lot of cold around but perhaps not a massive amount of high level blocking .That could manifest in a few different ways, some significantly more wintry than others.

Agreed Brian. A mixed outlook sums things up. 

Things could change but no evidence at present of sustained Northerly blocking. Pretty bog standard Winter fare but the models are not without interest.

LOL  Seriously though, the output today is hardly uunderwhelming, steady as you go, stunning GFS para, excellent UKMO and ECM, steady GFS ens, not sure where any negativity is coming from - apart from the usual doom mongers of course.

Could be a better op run, still got my eyes looking NE

Should hopefully start to see more of these types of runs as we head into Feb. 

Indeed looking good at 192 for  a nor easter

No sign of any blocking in the FI OP run this morning either:

If anything it's a strengthened PV - purples and blues over the Pole and Greenland and a strengthened Azores HP.?

Not what you would associated with a split PV, REVERSAL of Zonal winds following a major SSW.

06z run - yet again with a positive NAO - just as you think things are quietning down the jet fires up and a deep area of low pressure develops to south of Greenland heading into Iceland post +252:

Look at the NH view, though. It's totally different to the previous run, with a totally split vortex and high pressure over the pole. Run to run variation is so vast it is pointless to get hung up on the detail. The trend is for it to turn increasingly unsettled and cold from the NW. Good for the northern half of the country, and potentially good for the south later depending how deep the jet can dive.

That is an 00Z chart. The equivalent 06Z has a split vortex with high pressure over the pole. It's pointless posting individual op run charts when they change completely every six hours. Look at the medium term trends instead.

Yes I agree with this, I think those of us in the south might have to put up with a pretty miserable week or two of cold rain with maybe the odd surprise snowfall, but if the high pressure over the pole can nudge down this way a little bit (hints at the end of the GFSP 0z and op 6z) then fun and games could ensue from the northeast. Just need a fast forward button now, I'm getting impatient!

I know it's the 00Z run and it's hardly consistent is it? Bare in mind each run we're getting ever closer to the end of January...!?

Think I might give the charts a break for a day or two....

6 Para already looks more amplified at day 6. -10 850s into Scotland

careful there Tally- we may have to go live in a Scottish ski resort😉

Thought I would look at history and share how the blocking started which gave us the Feast from East in Feb 2018 commencing on 20th Feb 18:

THEN A BLIZZARD WHICH DUMPED 6 - 7 inches of snow in 5 hours in Exeter, along with a daytime max of -3c and many parts of the south and south west on 1st followed by more ice pellets of sleet freezing rain and then an additional amount of snow on afternoon of 2nd. - About 1cm. (wetter snow).

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NOW BEAST from the East part 2:

15th March was mild temps of 12 or 13c.

Wet snow fell all day and started settling 2-5cms by night!

Another spell of heavy wet snow fell - which only initially settled on rooftops and pavements and grass but then accumulated onto roads and all surfaces by mid afternoon and evening and continued throughout the whole night of 17th into 18th and another bout of snow much heavier this time fell on 18th and it snowed for 15 hours - gave us an additional 5- 6" of snow:

The snow that fell on Saturday was wet and didn't settle until very end of day when temp dropped to -1c then snowed all Sat night melted a little Sunday morning before another bout of snow came mid morning and this time settled everywhere and lasting throughout the whole day and night of 18th to 19th March and temp dropped to -2.5c so snow became more powdery. 

 I really don't think anything can beat that, esp after the first beast from east i thought we won't get snow like this for another decade or so and less than x2 weeks later we had the same - just not so much of a blizzard and now powdery drifting snow! 

Was truly a memorable month of weather!

We had more snow in the Spring month of March 2018 than we did throughout the whole of December 2010 and winter 2012/13 put together! If I was to totally up all the accumulated snow for March 2018, including storm Emma and 2nd beast from eass! I would have it 15" - 20" of snow! Although with storm Emma it was difficult to measure the snow depth as the powdery snow was like dunes and drifting but it averaged around 6 to 7 inches!

Maybe, we were lucky with that SSW? Perhaps, it was the La Nina or EASTERLY QBO but either way that SSW earlier in FEB 2018 delivered well and twice if not 3 times as we have more sleety snow on 29th March - Good Friday/Easter Saturday, less than weeks on from this! Nothing settled it was more sleety rain with snow mixed in followed by light rain and snowflakes in heavier bursts!

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I will be hard to find anything that beat's cold and snow that we had during March 2018.