https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx?run=06&charthour=240&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM 

Yes, you would have to assume it is overdoing the 850s here, as that is a heck of a cold westerly!

6z Para goes full on January 1795 again late on.  Nice consistent signal

Remember a few years back where we had snow down here associated with an Atlantic front as it bumped into a cold pool already over us.

The here and now and to my untrained things still look too fragile on either side. There's no overwhelming feature modelled giving any confidence to any outcome.

 I'd take that 300hr chart.

FI charts from the 06z ensembles. Some have BLOCK over Scandinavia or try to build it where as some have block over Greenland! They look more blocked with a few bringing in an easterly too...? Can only be upgrades from now on:

Snow event for the SW?

Another snow potential for the south?

Proper Northern Blocking setting up>?

06z ens looking great, as others have said you don't need -10s for Snow.

Nor easters can often spring something in the Chingford Alps. There's nothing to stop them or warm them up as they track across the North Sea, across the freezer that is Epping Forest and into Chingford. There have been several occasions in the past few years when we have had a couple of inches (more just a mile away in Epping Forest itself) and there has been grey, cold rainy nothingness in town. Quite extraordinary differences in conditions over a few miles due to the UHI effect. 

300 hrs if only? This could be a very snowy southern half of the UK:

Temps at or just above Freezing and then dropping below freezing!?

Presumably the US government was waiting for stellar UK charts to arrive before promoting the P to the op? 

Just insane snowstorm for the SE can I bank that one please.

Impressively cold without being very cold. New winter snow row record of 71!!!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Faux snow?

6Z ensemble mean by 384 hours looks fairly decent. The actual range of options is vast though. P13, 16, 17 and 20 are fun. 

Having said that, the ensemble pack for London looks tighter than we have seen for a while.

To be fair the start of the snow rows appearing is still January 17, as it has been for several days now. I'll only get worried when that starts getting pushed back.

Snow rows across the country. pretty impressive these types of figures haven't been seen since March 18. It will be more marginal but somewhere could get a lot of snow.

Sheffield 90

Glasgow 115

London    71

Norwich   93

Cardiff     51

Aberdeen  121

Newcastle  150

esp as they are snow depth in CM 😂

Just looked at the snow rows for my location, well, Brighton, which is close enough.   61 - not bad.

Is there anywhere to view earlier GEFS data to compare?

indeed Ballamar. Despite various protests the winter moaning posts continue to pile in here from Melton Mowbray. 

It’s actually looking more likely than any time in the last 2 weeks we’ll see a half decent cold spell end of Jan. And more importantly a reminder that timescales have not changed.

You missed one.

Liverpool - 90

Is that the last time you won the league?

Hoping for some better clarity as to the way forward starts this afternoon.