Agreed - but more in the sense that its a sign that things are beginning to show signs of stalling.  Which shows the Jet is beggining to lose its oomph (SSW impact?)

0z Para rolling out now...

So the chances of much colder weather is swinging away because the 06 gfs says so,despite the fact it’s the worst performing model of any of the big 3 ,constantly.Bet you any thing the next run will be totally different,then gfs has the cold spell “ nailed on” etc.

Why are you  using just the gfs to make that assumption?

Pendulums go back and forth. That was kind of the point of my post! I'm sure it will swing back towards cold, but that doesn't mean that the cold is nailed on any more than the 6Z GFS means it isn't. People shouldn't focus so much on single runs!

GFS OP run look POOR THIS MORNING - COULD YOU SEND ME LINK TO PARALLEL Run please?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=1&time=384&run=0&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=3&mv=0 

Can someone send me the link to the wed's 06z parallel run please?

There you go:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6&runpara=1

Not great for cold out to 240h it has to be said. 

GFS P has a very deep low heading towards Iceland at t234 where it has now frozen

GFSP 00z has pizza at 240. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfsp.aspx

GFS P has woken up

For the avoidance of doubt, this  latest run is the is the 0z, not 6z. 

6z Op on the mild side at the end of the run.

Quite a difference in positioning of HP in FI

Control run of 06z:

Op run of 06z:

It's poor! How come para it's not updating on wetterzentrale?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=360&run=6&lid=PARA&h=0&tr=6&mv=0

Yesterday's parallel we saw quite a lot of northern blocking appearing around FI period right over top of the Pole into Greenland:

Today we see little if any signs?

06z Ensembles for London:

Looks like more in the way of cold zonality or transient northerlies then north westerly than true a true freeze or cold easterly etc?

Well the GFS has gone a bit meh today. At least the ECM looks solidly cold from the 20th.

Better than I feared looks pretty good not many -10c runs though 

I was also looking at the Average ensembles - from N. Hemisphere view down:

That Azores HP really doesn't help does it?

Yes as I mentioned earlier it's looking more like chilly northwesterlies than a continental freeze-up. Plenty of interest and hopefully just an appetiser for early Feb!

The main cluster is signalling a very cold period in around 12-14 days, so reasonably consistent.  Within that a growing number of ice days.  But with the scatter towards near-normal conditions we need to be cautious: the mean showing maxima around 4c and minima around 1c shows there's still a way to go.

Recent GFS runs have changed the handling of LP exiting the east coast of the USA.  Instead of heading north and supporting WAA and a mid-Atlantic block they're now progged to move north then east, flattening the pattern.   Was it right before or is it right now?  Who knows, but the ensemble chart above shows the 00z was off into mild outlier land at the end.

Except you won't get maxima that low (3-4c) in London from a north-westerly and certainly not the ice days that are appearing.

Hmm, fair point, I was 5 degrees out with the scale! 

Snow rows upto 67 the most ive seen all winter.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png