Met Office Hadley      9.6c.     Anomaly     4.6c Provisional to 3rd.

Metcheck                   8.75c    Anomaly     3.75c

Netweather               10.38c   Anomaly     5.29c

Forest Town Mansfield 7.6c. Anomaly    1.6c.

Peasedown St John  10.3c    Anomaly   1.6c

Mean of my 10 8.65c Anomaly 1.38c.   

Met Office Hadley      8,2.     Anomaly    3.1c. Provisional to the 4th

Metcheck8.                0.1c     Anomaly    3.02c

Netweather                8.73c   Anomaly    3.64c 

Forest Town Mansfield 7.2c    Anomaly    0.6c

Peasedown St John   9.3c   Anomaly   3.18c

Mean of my 10 8.32c.   Anomaly    1.03c   

The highest December CET following a June of 16.0C and greater is 5.8C 

We'll see if this December can surpass this.

Met Office Hadley        8.0c.    Anomaly     2.8c. Provisional to 5th.

Metcheck                     9.49c   Anomaly      3.50c

Netweather                  8.77c   Anomaly      3.60c

Canvey Island              10.2c   Anomaly       2.7c

Hexam                         5.1c    Anomaly       -0.6c

Forest Town Mansfield 7.9c   Anomaly   1.3c

Peasedown St John     9.37c    Anomaly    3.25c

Treviskey Redruth      10.8c    Anomaly   1.84c

 Mean of my 10 watched stations  8.67c.  Anomaly  1.84c.               

C'mon GW..at least let us all know what myself and Darren have predicted ? 

C'mon GW..at least let us all know what myself and Darren have predicted ? 

 

You both went with -2.3C, coldest on record and will embarrassingly slide down the table ruining a whole year of otherwise excellent guess work/CET wizardry

 You both went with -2.3C, coldest on record and will embarrassingly slide down the table ruining a whole year of otherwise excellent guess work/CET wizardry

Sorry I am really busy at the moment and have other things on my mind. I will hopefully be able to get everything posted up tomorrow night. 

Ah well. Just look at next week now eh? We might yet see more fight back from the east but looks to me that the cold spell with potentially well below zero nights that I was hoping for will most likely take place just a little east of us.

Basically I saw this potential, knew it was a long shot, but decided it would be more fun that playing it safe and went for a CET of 3.85*C. Unless something highly unusual takes place for next week, or exceptionally cold for the 2nd half of Dec, I can see a(nother) pretty big error to round off the year . Just not had the luck of the draw since August - which is not the best when you're striving to be more adventurous than usual!

This reminds me of the downside to being in the 'podium' positions during Nov-Dec; it's hard to predict anything exciting without an unusually strong signal to back it up... and even then you feel constrained, such as I did in Dec 2010 when despite the incredible extended run of cold weather charts on offer, I still estimated a CET a few above zero.

With that in mind, very interested to see what the top three did actually go for this month .

Met Office Hadley      8.3c    Anomaly   3.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                   8.93c   Anomaly   3.94c

Netweather                9.27c   Anomaly   4.18c

Canvey Island             10.6c   Anomaly   3.2c

Clevedon Weather        10.3c   Anomaly   2.18c

Hexam                         6.0c    Anomaly   0.24c

Forest Town Mansfield  8.4c    Anomaly   1.8c

Peasedown St John  9.7c    Anomaly   3.58c

Treveiskey Redruth   10.7c   Anomaly  1.74c

Mean Of My watched 10 =  9.16c.  Anomaly  1.8c. 

MetOffice Hadley        8.4c.     Anomaly   3.3c  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                    8.74c    Anomaly    3.75c

Netweather                 9.31c    Anomaly     4.22c

Bordon                       9.1c      Anomaly      0.2c

Canvey Island             10.1c    Anomaly      2.6c

Cheadle Hulme            8.1c      Anomaly     1.18c

Clevedon Weather        10.2c    Anomaly     2.08c

Darwen                       8.6c      Anomaly     1.64c

Hexam                        6.3c      Anomaly      0.34c

Mount Sorrel                8.8c      Anomaly      2.26c

Forest Town Mansfield   8.2c     Anomaly      1.6c

Peasedonw St John      9.7c     Anomaly    3.58c

Treviskey Redruth       10.6c.   Anomaly     1.68c.

Mean of My 10 Watched stations  8.97c.  Anomaly  1.7c.       

Here we go then. Sorry for holding you all in suspense for the whole of this week.

December CET predictions

A large number of people have gone for something in my analogues range of 5.2C to 5.8C. 

This includes our two leaders who are once again very close with their predictions. The upshot is that if it stays mild then Darren wins. If it turns very cold Steve wins. If we end up around 5.5C then it gets very tight indeed.

Shoeshoe in third went for something a bit more extreme which was necessary to have any chance of winning. However, being only 1C higher than Darren's prediction it won't be enough to win even if it stays very mild.

The Professional in fourth went the other way and has a colder prediction but it is only 0.72C lower than Darren's. So again not enough to be in with a chance of topping the leader board.

Stormchaser went for broke but even that won't be enough should we see Arctic conditions. He is 2.14C behind Darren but his prediction is 1.85C lower.

So it is a straight fight between Darren and Steve for the 2018 title. Good luck to both. The models are all over the place at the moment so anything is possible.

Link to full size table TABLE

Latest December CET tracker

Still looks very mild, although not as mild as we head towards mid month.

Current estimate is a CET of 7.01C by the 21st

Latest December CET tracker

Still looks very mild, although not as mild as we head towards mid month.

Current estimate is a CET of 7.01C by the 21st

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I've gone for 7.0C - From looking at the table I didn't realise how much I've stuck my neck out there. However, We've finished the first week of the month and so far it's higher than 8.0C Sure is interesting times and from the above post looks like being around 7 in 2 weeks time.

 

I've gone for 7.0C - From looking at the table I didn't realise how much I've stuck my neck out there. However, We've finished the first week of the month and so far it's higher than 8.0C Sure is interesting times and from the above post looks like being around 7 in 2 weeks time.

 

 

I’ve gone the other way with 5c.    Oh well, between us we can keep the table together!   Now I’m betting it ends at 6c!   

I'll blame you if I don't win this month then

Thanks for the update GW.

A nail biting month for Darren and myself. 

Darren is favourite as things stand tonight.

Thanks for the update GW.

A nail biting month for Darren and myself. 

Darren is favourite as things stand tonight.

 

 

I'm relieved you went lower. I thought I'd blown it! I need 0.48C error or less to beat the all time minimum error I think, so it must be less than 6.18C.

 

I'm relieved you went lower. I thought I'd blown it! I need 0.48C error or less to beat the all time minimum error I think, so it must be less than 6.18C.

You have a decent chance Darren to supersede the all time record low cumulative error of 5.99 that I set in 2016, which would be some achievement.

Its looking at the moment like the month will end milder than 5.6 so I think youre in the driving seat with regard to this year.  So could be a double victory over Steve and myself, we shall see.

 

I'll blame you if I don't win this month then