You both went with -2.3C, coldest on record and will embarrassingly slide down the table ruining a whole year of otherwise excellent guess work/CET wizardry

Sorry I am really busy at the moment and have other things on my mind. I will hopefully be able to get everything posted up tomorrow night. 

Ah well. Just look at next week now eh? We might yet see more fight back from the east but looks to me that the cold spell with potentially well below zero nights that I was hoping for will most likely take place just a little east of us.

Basically I saw this potential, knew it was a long shot, but decided it would be more fun that playing it safe and went for a CET of 3.85*C. Unless something highly unusual takes place for next week, or exceptionally cold for the 2nd half of Dec, I can see a(nother) pretty big error to round off the year . Just not had the luck of the draw since August - which is not the best when you're striving to be more adventurous than usual!

This reminds me of the downside to being in the 'podium' positions during Nov-Dec; it's hard to predict anything exciting without an unusually strong signal to back it up... and even then you feel constrained, such as I did in Dec 2010 when despite the incredible extended run of cold weather charts on offer, I still estimated a CET a few above zero.

With that in mind, very interested to see what the top three did actually go for this month .

Met Office Hadley      8.3c    Anomaly   3.1c. Provisional to 6th.

Metcheck                   8.93c   Anomaly   3.94c

Netweather                9.27c   Anomaly   4.18c

Canvey Island             10.6c   Anomaly   3.2c

Clevedon Weather        10.3c   Anomaly   2.18c

Hexam                         6.0c    Anomaly   0.24c

Forest Town Mansfield  8.4c    Anomaly   1.8c

Peasedown St John  9.7c    Anomaly   3.58c

Treveiskey Redruth   10.7c   Anomaly  1.74c

Mean Of My watched 10 =  9.16c.  Anomaly  1.8c. 

MetOffice Hadley        8.4c.     Anomaly   3.3c  Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                    8.74c    Anomaly    3.75c

Netweather                 9.31c    Anomaly     4.22c

Bordon                       9.1c      Anomaly      0.2c

Canvey Island             10.1c    Anomaly      2.6c

Cheadle Hulme            8.1c      Anomaly     1.18c

Clevedon Weather        10.2c    Anomaly     2.08c

Darwen                       8.6c      Anomaly     1.64c

Hexam                        6.3c      Anomaly      0.34c

Mount Sorrel                8.8c      Anomaly      2.26c

Forest Town Mansfield   8.2c     Anomaly      1.6c

Peasedonw St John      9.7c     Anomaly    3.58c

Treviskey Redruth       10.6c.   Anomaly     1.68c.

Mean of My 10 Watched stations  8.97c.  Anomaly  1.7c.       

Here we go then. Sorry for holding you all in suspense for the whole of this week.

December CET predictions

A large number of people have gone for something in my analogues range of 5.2C to 5.8C. 

This includes our two leaders who are once again very close with their predictions. The upshot is that if it stays mild then Darren wins. If it turns very cold Steve wins. If we end up around 5.5C then it gets very tight indeed.

Shoeshoe in third went for something a bit more extreme which was necessary to have any chance of winning. However, being only 1C higher than Darren's prediction it won't be enough to win even if it stays very mild.

The Professional in fourth went the other way and has a colder prediction but it is only 0.72C lower than Darren's. So again not enough to be in with a chance of topping the leader board.

Stormchaser went for broke but even that won't be enough should we see Arctic conditions. He is 2.14C behind Darren but his prediction is 1.85C lower.

So it is a straight fight between Darren and Steve for the 2018 title. Good luck to both. The models are all over the place at the moment so anything is possible.

Link to full size table TABLE

Latest December CET tracker

Still looks very mild, although not as mild as we head towards mid month.

Current estimate is a CET of 7.01C by the 21st

I've gone for 7.0C - From looking at the table I didn't realise how much I've stuck my neck out there. However, We've finished the first week of the month and so far it's higher than 8.0C Sure is interesting times and from the above post looks like being around 7 in 2 weeks time.

I'll blame you if I don't win this month then

Thanks for the update GW.

A nail biting month for Darren and myself. 

Darren is favourite as things stand tonight.

I'm relieved you went lower. I thought I'd blown it! I need 0.48C error or less to beat the all time minimum error I think, so it must be less than 6.18C.

You have a decent chance Darren to supersede the all time record low cumulative error of 5.99 that I set in 2016, which would be some achievement.

Its looking at the moment like the month will end milder than 5.6 so I think youre in the driving seat with regard to this year.  So could be a double victory over Steve and myself, we shall see.

Met Office Hadley        8.4c.     Anomaly    3.4c   Provisional to 8th.

Metcheck                     8.74c    Anomaly    3.75c

Netweather                  9.3c      Anomaly     4.21c

Bordon                         9.3c      Anomaly     0.0c

Canvey Island               10.2c    Anomaly      2.17c

Cheadle Hulme              8.7c      Anomaly      1.78c

Clevedon Weather          10.3c    Anomaly      2.18c

Darwen                          8.5c     Anomaly      2.4c

Hexam                           5.9c     Anomaly      0.14c

Mount Sorrel                   8.9c     Anomaly      2.36c

Forest Town Mansfield   8.1c   Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John  9.6c   Anomaly  3.48c

Treviskey Redruth      10.78c.    Anomaly    0.34c.

Mean of my watched 10 stations   9.02c  Anomaly   1.75c.

Met Office Hadley      8.4c.     Anomaly     3.4c. Provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                   8.48c    Anomaly     3.49c

Netweather                9.18c    Anomaly      4.09c

Forest Town Mansfield 8.1c    Anomaly   1.5c

Peasedown St John  9.5c    Anomaly   3.38c.

Mean of my 10  8.69c. Anomaly   1.42c    

Looking like another horribly mild December , the output at the moment suggesting 7c CET likely . Boooooo!

We might still be quite early in the winter just now, but the end of this month will take us to a third of the way through this winter already.

This means that if this is still somehow going to end up being a cold winter in the end, January and February are going to have to be really cold months in order to make up for this month being so horribly mild.

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?LANG=en&WMO=03166&ART=MXMN&CONT=ukuk&R=310&LEVEL=150®ION=0003&LAND=UK&NOREGION=0&MOD=&TMX=&TMN=&SON=&PRE=&MONAT=&OFFS=&SORT= 

Met Office Hadley       8.2c.     Anomaly     3.3c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                    8.17c    Anomaly     3.17c

Netweather                 8.9c      Anomaly     3.81c

Hexam                        5.0c      Anomaly     0.76c

Forest Town Mansfield  7.6c    Anomaly    1.0c

Peasedown St John      9.3c      Anomaly    3.18c

Treviskey Redruth  10.4c   Anomaly   1.44c.

Mean of my 10     8.43c.    Anomaly    1.16c. 

Well, it was worth a shot. Right on the edge of plausible outcomes but sometimes the outside chances come to pass.

The easterlies of Wed-Fri are a real-world representation of just how easily we could have been heading into a colder and longer-lasting period of anticyclonic weather. Much as the Met Office were also anticipating as of late November. Extended modelling was keen on very large height rises across the UK and some way to the west and northwest, but there was a crucial oversight; a stretching out of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the N. Atlantic sector as a result of unusually strong (for the time of year) stratospheric warming over both Canada and East Asia. 

This warming was greatly underestimated, so the stretching out was not depicted, or even hinted at. What it's done is increased the potential vorticity over the N. Atlantic at just the time needed for the Atlantic troughs to be able to deepen far enough to first hold the big pressure build just east of the UK instead of allowing it to build across further, and then push it at least a little further east by the weekend than would otherwise have been the case.

How very unfortunate for those with either sub-5*C estimates or seeking an extended break from the frequently wet and windy weather pattern of late (or both!). It's the third major misfortune of the year, following Aug and Sep with their failed tropical cycles. The weather's not been kind to us since the joys of high summer - how's that for a balancing act!

Signs are, the tail end of the month and a good part of next (maybe all of it) will swing the pendulum of fortune the other way if you enjoy it colder with more snow potential (not saying much I know!). Fingers crossed!

p.s. Had to write this post twice due to a network interruption. This forum really could do with an auto-cache of what people are in the process of writing... but I suspect that's simply not possible with the software being used (?).