Well, it was worth a shot. Right on the edge of plausible outcomes but sometimes the outside chances come to pass.
The easterlies of Wed-Fri are a real-world representation of just how easily we could have been heading into a colder and longer-lasting period of anticyclonic weather. Much as the Met Office were also anticipating as of late November. Extended modelling was keen on very large height rises across the UK and some way to the west and northwest, but there was a crucial oversight; a stretching out of the stratospheric polar vortex toward the N. Atlantic sector as a result of unusually strong (for the time of year) stratospheric warming over both Canada and East Asia.
This warming was greatly underestimated, so the stretching out was not depicted, or even hinted at. What it's done is increased the potential vorticity over the N. Atlantic at just the time needed for the Atlantic troughs to be able to deepen far enough to first hold the big pressure build just east of the UK instead of allowing it to build across further, and then push it at least a little further east by the weekend than would otherwise have been the case.
How very unfortunate for those with either sub-5*C estimates or seeking an extended break from the frequently wet and windy weather pattern of late (or both!). It's the third major misfortune of the year, following Aug and Sep with their failed tropical cycles. The weather's not been kind to us since the joys of high summer - how's that for a balancing act!
Signs are, the tail end of the month and a good part of next (maybe all of it) will swing the pendulum of fortune the other way if you enjoy it colder with more snow potential (not saying much I know!). Fingers crossed!
p.s. Had to write this post twice due to a network interruption. This forum really could do with an auto-cache of what people are in the process of writing... but I suspect that's simply not possible with the software being used (?).
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https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On