The September QBO figure has now been issued by NOAA. As expected the QBO is rapidly transitioning from easterly to westerly. 

The September figure is -9.9 up from -20.4 in August. I would expect the October figure to be somewhere close to zero with a positive figure by November.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

So we should be in the westerly QBO this winter. I am not sure how long it takes the atmosphere to adjust to changes in the QBO so we may still  be somewhat influenced by the legacy of the easterly QBO, at least for the first part of the winter

Of course the QBO is only one factor that can influence winter conditions.

Looking at years where we transitioned from easterly QBO to westerly QBO in late Autumn the closest match to this year is probably 1977. December 1977 was warm but January and February 1978 were both rather cool. The cool conditions continued right through until August. The middle part of 1977 was also very cool so completely the opposite to what we had this year. We did have weak El Nino conditions in the winter of 1977/8. Solar activity was much higher than it is now.

There are a few other years where we transitioned to westerly QBO a little earlier than this year i.e. in the late summer / early autumn. These were 1963, 1982, 1987, 1992 and 2010.

Dec 1963 - March 1964 was chilly

Dec 1982 - Feb 1983 was mixed - cold December and very cold Feb but mild January

Dec 1987 - Feb 1988 was mild

Dec 1992 - Feb 1993 was mixed - Dec cold but Jan very mild

Dec 2010 - Feb 2011 was also mixed - Dec very cold but Feb very mild

So no real trend there. But it does show that where we transition into the westerly phase of the QBO just prior to winter, it is still possible to get some quite cold spells of weather during the winter, more particularly in December (4 of the 6 years mentioned above).

Looking at the EC seasonal model  82 could well be  a good match for this coming winter. All speculative and long way out  of course but food for thought nonetheless.

This winter is easily the most interesting one in the history of TWO. As noted in the Met Office CPF most of the traditional forcing mechanisms favour mild. On the other side are the more speculative impacts of low solar activity and the aftershocks from the SSW in February. 

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This winter is easily the most interesting one in the history of TWO. As noted in the Met Office CPF most of the traditional forcing mechanisms favour mild. On the other side are the more speculative impacts of low solar activity and the aftershocks from the SSW in February. 

And since then we (South) haven't really seen much appreciable amount of rain. 

 

This is how I feel the jet stream will go and will be throughout the N. Hemisphere - I think there will be a ridge off the coast of western Canada and west coast of USA - Bringing milder and drier than average conditions to the west from LA to SFC to Seattle to Vancouver to Whitehorse to Anchorage with colder and wetter than average conditions across the eastern seaboard with above average snow for the great lakes and anywhere north of NYC and Newark. There would also be some storms emerging in the Gulf of Mexico and moving northwards coinciding with the LP systems from Canada bringing nor easter. Looks like south of DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia will see more rain/snow events than pure snow (wintry mix!) - Then there will be a mid Atlantic ridge as far north as S Greenland and Iceland, then a dip in the jet again and goes right down into central and southern Europe and then a ridge down in the Eastern Mediterranean and SE Europe where it will be warmer and drier. Western Russia/ Eastern Europe as a whole would be much milder than average especially during the first half of winter, whilst the Central north and NW of Europe will be colder with the jet stream taking a NW'ly - SE'ly track. NW England, N. Ireland and Scotland will get frequent northerly blasts. If we get a SSW then things could change but for now this is my best guess.

Just a thought. What do you think?

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Frosty Friday night and cold again last night here in the rural part of the KA4 postcode.

Can’t remember so many frosts so early.

Pleasing.

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Frosty Friday night and cold again last night here in the rural part of the KA4 postcode.

Can’t remember so many frosts so early.

Pleasing.

Frost? What's that?

from the PO19 postcode

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Frost? What's that?

from the PO19 postcode

I'm asking the same question here in Edinburgh.

I know that it's possibly a little bit early for that but since there are a few places even down south which have already had their first official frost, it surely shouldn't be asking for too much for there to have been some frost in this part of Scotland where I live as well.

Having said that though, I live in a part of the UK which just doesn't get any sort of "interesting" weather any more (as I have said so many times elsewhere on this forum) so on that basis, it probably shouldn't come as any surprise that we haven't had any frost here yet.

Knowing my luck as well, it wouldn't even surprise me if we got all the way up to December and the start of the meteorological winter, yet still found myself waiting for that first elusive official air frost of the season here in Edinburgh since that has been known to happen in many a year.

 

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And since then we (South) haven't really seen much appreciable amount of rain. 

 

This is how I feel the jet stream will go and will be throughout the N. Hemisphere - I think there will be a ridge off the coast of western Canada and west coast of USA - Bringing milder and drier than average conditions to the west from LA to SFC to Seattle to Vancouver to Whitehorse to Anchorage with colder and wetter than average conditions across the eastern seaboard with above average snow for the great lakes and anywhere north of NYC and Newark. There would also be some storms emerging in the Gulf of Mexico and moving northwards coinciding with the LP systems from Canada bringing nor easter. Looks like south of DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia will see more rain/snow events than pure snow (wintry mix!) - Then there will be a mid Atlantic ridge as far north as S Greenland and Iceland, then a dip in the jet again and goes right down into central and southern Europe and then a ridge down in the Eastern Mediterranean and SE Europe where it will be warmer and drier. Western Russia/ Eastern Europe as a whole would be much milder than average especially during the first half of winter, whilst the Central north and NW of Europe will be colder with the jet stream taking a NW'ly - SE'ly track. NW England, N. Ireland and Scotland will get frequent northerly blasts. If we get a SSW then things could change but for now this is my best guess.

Just a thought. What do you think?

Was it not ok to insert that map?

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My initial ideas on what the coming Winter season has in store then...

So, I've determined that there are six years (since 1960) that are matched quite well with the current situation in 2018.  These are:

1976  (ENSO & Solar cycle match)

1977 (ENSO & QBO match)

1979 (ENSO)

1986 (ENSO & Solar cycle match)

2009 (ENSO & Solar cycle match)

2012 (ENSO & QBO match)

In addition, all of the Septembers of these years, bar 1976, have a similar synoptic anomaly with 2018.  I also feel that 1977 is a particularly good match because the trend of the QBO is closely mirroring that of 2018.  

So in trying to determine which direction the Winter 2018-19 season could be heading in, I noticed that the six matched years can be grouped into three pairs in terms of each year's October synoptic anomalies.  These are:

1977 and 1986:  Both of these Octobers featured a dominant Azores High with a Euro High anomaly, and Low Pressure dominating around Iceland.

1976 and 1979:  Both Octobers had a strong High over Northern Russia, with a dominant trough from SW Britain to Iceland and frequent SE winds.

2009 and 2012:  Both Octobers had a significant High Pressure anomaly near Iceland, with a dominant Low near the Azores, E-SE winds over the UK.

Now interestingly, judging by the October 2018 pattern so far, and assuming the current Model Outputs are reasonably accurate, it looks to me like we may be heading down the route of the first outcome, ie. a similar route to 1977 and 1986. A combination of those two outcomes would give us a cold Winter with some significant snowfalls.  Even if the pattern changes in October, just look at the other 4 matches.  All of the other years went on to produce some significant wintry weather in the Winter that followed, and even the least snowy Winter (1980) did produce some decent snow events.

So at this early stage, the signs are looking good for cold weather fans, however...

I will be keeping an eye on the QBO trend over the next couple of months.  I feel that the brakes need to be put on its current rate of transition into a wQBO event.  I've noticed that when a QBO transition is rapid, it tends to disrupt cold Winter weather patterns.  There is reason to be hopeful though.  As I've mentioned, 1977 is probably the best match to this year for the QBO, and that Winter did see the transition rate slow down dramatically. Of course Winter 1978 went on to produce quite a memorable wintry second half, and I feel that Winter is often overshadowed by 1978/79 understandably.

 

 

 

 

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Good work, Andy.

I wonder whether the QBO is something that's simply too poorly understood at this stage to be used for forecasting or pattern matching. I'm thinking here of the Feb. 2016 event, where the expected transition to an easterly regime simply didn't happen, and there was a renewed burst of westerlies. Basically the quasi-biennial oscillation turned out to be so quasi that it didn't actually oscillate.

Brian, quite rightly in my view, references the off-the-scale sudden stratospheric warming of February 2018 as a reason why seasonal weather might be following new patterns going forward. I wonder whether the strange QBO events of Feb. 2016 might be having a similar effect. Indeed, it might even have something to do with the Feb. 2018 SSW being so dramatic.

I've always said that having only about sixty years of detailed weather data is nowhere near enough to isolate patterns for seasonal forecasting. Not that that stops me looking for them. Maybe by October 2118 we'll have enough data for this thread to be useful as well as just really entertaining.

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Andy's post above is very well researched and informative. However, I shall add two penneth here - I don't think we have a match for the current state of the solar cycle which is not behaving like any of the SCs in the 20th Century. That could be a wildcard to throw into the mix this winter.

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Look forward to seeing the QBO progress.

The mangling of the strat /trop boundary layers ,by a wayward polar night jet ,was favoured as best fit forcing for the 'failed reversal' of the QBO we witnessed a few years back.

Could we be in for a repeat of this again this reversal? It has timed its reversal well for the setting up of the PNJ for the winter!

Throw in Low Solar and the prospect of a strengthening Nino signal and we appear to have a very interesting period in front of us!

If the tweek to the Arctic , back in 2012, is now compensated for by the path of the Atlantic section of the Polar Jet then we are out of the 'washout summer' pattern and into a H.P. dominated period.

With low solar also promoting blocking we might find quite a settled winter with folk , north and south of the block. not doing so well as weather is deflected around it?

I'd favour a Bartlett bottom to the block but it reaching up beyond NW Europe? Warm/Mild airstream all winter with one or two breakdowns for variety!

With nino in the making I don't fancy the atmospheric moisture burden at all, I've seen what such can bring with it!

A nice shield deflecting such humongous rains away from us would be very welcome!

 

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I'd favour a Bartlett bottom to the block but it reaching up beyond NW Europe? Warm/Mild airstream all winter with one or two breakdowns for variety!

 

Oh dear no way, even during solar minimum?! I don't want mild and wet - I think this dry weather is set to continue, although we have had wetter periods we never really have had sustained spells of wet weather they have only been brief. Even if we did go into a westerly QBO - then would it not take time to have an im,pact on the troposphere ? same for the weak El Nino? - Developing so late !!

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Oh dear no way, even during solar minimum?! I don't want mild and wet - I think this dry weather is set to continue, although we have had wetter periods we never really have had sustained spells of wet weather they have only been brief. Even if we did go into a westerly QBO - then would it not take time to have an im,pact on the troposphere ? same for the weak El Nino? - Developing so late !!

As we see with the speed of SSW impacts, and how long they can rumble on for, any atmospheric aberration can have near real time impacts on other aspects of the climate system ( MJO?) and so feed into the seasons weathers with only weeks having elapsed from the 'event'.

The flooding of the atmosphere above the ENSO areas have a similar effect occurring to their north as the Arctic tries to shed its summer warmth. both are full depth atmosphere impacts so surely this then pushes other impacts ( like the QBO's descent?)

Last winters atmosphere became so unstable that we saw our hemisphere's Polar Jet head over the equator and on to South Africa . You might say that this is just one filament of high speed winds at height in the trop so why worry but I do worry as it is not supposed to be able to occur!

The lower strat is becoming event wackier than that as the polar night jet is thrown from its old traditional position and into its trachoidal wobbling!

Just be open to weird shyte happening across our hemisphere this autumn/winter!

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As we see with the speed of SSW impacts, and how long they can rumble on for, any atmospheric aberration can have near real time impacts on other aspects of the climate system ( MJO?) and so feed into the seasons weathers with only weeks having elapsed from the 'event'.

The flooding of the atmosphere above the ENSO areas have a similar effect occurring to their north as the Arctic tries to shed its summer warmth. both are full depth atmosphere impacts so surely this then pushes other impacts ( like the QBO's descent?)

Last winters atmosphere became so unstable that we saw our hemisphere's Polar Jet head over the equator and on to South Africa . You might say that this is just one filament of high speed winds at height in the trop so why worry but I do worry as it is not supposed to be able to occur!

The lower strat is becoming event wackier than that as the polar night jet is thrown from its old traditional position and into its trachoidal wobbling!

Just be open to weird shyte happening across our hemisphere this autumn/winter!

 

Read that twice and tried to understand - so you expect an Autumn/winter of Extremes? 

We did have our coldest September daytime max in many years last month and our coldest October max on Saturday at 9.6c and tomorrow and Wednesday we may break records for October warmth with maxes of 24c?! - Some 10c above average. 

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I'm expecting the unexpected!

No , I think we are now consolidating the changes we have seen over the past decade that have impact on the climate system. alongside this we have the growing Nino signal and deep low solar to contend with. Of course they could all just cancel one another out........... but I tend to think that chaos demands some nasty constructive augmentations to go on and our warmer, wetter, atmosphere to just add into that mess.

If we see HP dominance it might mean cold clear weeks and under such conditions any 'extreme' snow event would linger on the ground and so impact the cold that is able to form under that high?

Long winter nights and Highs mean 'cold' to me!

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I think the EC seasonals gets updated around the middle of the month so it will be interesting in seeing whether or not the blocked December/January is maintained in its outlook.

I think the EC seasonals gets updated around the middle of the month so it will be interesting in seeing whether or not the blocked December/January is maintained in its outlook.

 

The way the charts are currently presenting - i wouldnt be surprised if a blocked November starts to show in the LRF's

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We are certainly seeing our Atlantic storms 'mixing up' our atmosphere recently?

With all this energy floating around over the coming weeks we might expect our hemisphere to see some extreme weather events.

I'm still thinking that low solar/sea ice levels will leave us with a predominantly blocked winter?

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The way the charts are currently presenting - i wouldnt be surprised if a blocked November starts to show in the LRF's

They're hinting at such a set up Russ, we could be looking at a very anticyclonic year come the end of 2018.

I think the EC seasonals gets updated around the middle of the month so it will be interesting in seeing whether or not the blocked December/January is maintained in its outlook.

EC seasonal outlooks at this time of year nearly always show a blocked winter pattern ahead. I'd not take much heed of them to be honest. Fun to look at.. but that's about it. 

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