ECM to flip back to easterlies later then . I have my doubts

i can feel his embarrassment and detect his sloping shoulders after putting that tripe out earlier...especially now that we all  know who puts that media release out..

Well lets see what they do tomorrow - I guarantee it won't say 'north easterly winds' for next weekend.

Whilst I can guarantee they won't be talking about mild weather by next weekweek.

Eh?  I have no idea what you're complaining about. Would you care to enlighten us?

Well we will see but I bet from Friday on at least the phrase 'milder' will be used. Then probably unsettled and windy especially in the NW after that.

Based on the output we see I would say the forecast will speak of less cold for a time later next week.  There's absolutely nothing in the output to suggest it will become either mild or conventionally unsettled. But you know this already.

Agreed , Shrops knows that , it looks increasingly unsettled with a cold NWly flow with showers turning increasingly wintry 

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/nyregion/nyc-weather-snow-storm.html 

Someone has changed their forecast - or had a tweek'

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/week-ahead.htm

I wonder if they base their forecast on models only too? - Just interesting whenever the GFS or ECM etc models flip then their forecasts flip as well and go mild. Next one to flip is the Met Office update and then the BBC monthly?

Today's MetO update. Of note:

• Mention of a "small chance" of staying cold this weekend; a "less cold" period is mentioned
• In the extended outlook, "very cold" conditions are now likely

UK Outlook for Friday 25 Jan 2019 to Sunday 3 Feb 2019:

On Friday, southeastern areas are likely to stay dry, bright and cold, perhaps with some freezing fog patches at first. Elsewhere it could turn less cold as a band of rain and drizzle moves in from the west, with some hill snow possible in the north. However, there is a small chance that it could stay dry, bright and cold across much of the country with wintry showers in the east. Thereafter, an unsettled period of weather is possible with further band of rain moving southeast across the UK, with brighter and showery weather in between. Snow is also possible in some northern and central areas at times as it turns increasingly cold with overnight frosts, although some brief milder interludes are possible too.
UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Monday 18 Feb 2019:

Changeable conditions are most likely at first, with spells of rain, strong winds and some snow at times. However, very cold conditions are more likely to develop through this period with a greater chance of northerly and easterly winds. This brings an enhanced risk of snow and widespread frosts, however there is currently a large amount of uncertainty. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the northwest. The conditions described above could still be interspersed by some milder and wetter interludes, most likely across southern parts of the British Isles, and this would bring a risk of significant snow and ice at times.

Good update 

Cheers Darren 

A big shift as expected towards the milder end of week/weekend that we have seen from the NWP since late Friday. They have definitely been behind the NWP with this.

Thanks Darren. An interesting update for wintry weather fans. Chilly and uncertain seem to be the overriding themes.

yes I completely agree, let’s hope the extended very cold outlook doesn’t blow up in their face also as we move into Feb. 

Yes the worry is that they see topplers for the w/c 28/1 - not what the GFS shows and then we are relying on more jam tomorrow HLB ppearing early to mid Feb.

“Regional Forecast for Grampian

Headline:

Frost tonight. Mainly cloudy Monday, rain and hill snow later.

This Evening and Tonight:

This evening will be dry and clear with a widespread frost soon setting in. Remaining dry and frosty for the rest of the night, locally severe across Deeside, with localised freezing fog patches. Minimum temperature -7 °C.

Monday:

A bright start but dry and cold with a strengthening southerly wind. Patchy rain and hill snow spreading from the west in the evening. Snow possible to lower levels overnight. Maximum temperature 4 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Mainly dry, cold and bright on Tuesday, isolated wintry showers possible in the north. Staying mostly dry and cold with overnight frost Wednesday and Thursday. A severe frost in glens.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfnt07u1s#?date=2019-01-20 

There's no reference to 'milder' conditions at the weekend in that forecast.  It says 'less cold', which is altogether different - 'less cold' means still cold but less so.

Until we get the short term models singing from the same hymn sheet at +144 or less then it could well be another close but no cigar situation......... 😏

This week

Cold
Wintry showers
Harsh frosts
Less cold Friday

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46938377

Yellow warning out for snow for the Highlands... in January

Between 14:00 Mon 21st and 23:59 Mon 21st
Snow is expected to settle over the high ground of Scotland


Well no **** Sherlock. Does that really warrant a yellow warning? Surely anyone knows it snows on the tops in January?

There's also now a noticeable diconnect between the end of the 5-dayer and the start of the long-ranger.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold, with wintry showers in places on Wednesday, with sunshine elsewhere. Becoming less cold and cloudier thereafter, with some rain spreading erratically eastwards from Thursday, perhaps preceded by snow.

So expect the long-ranger to change quite dramatically today.

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Monday 4 Feb 2019:

Changeable on Saturday with rain and hill snow clearing southeastwards, to leave a brighter and showery picture for the remainder of the weekend. Showers will be of a wintry mix with snow possible at lower levels, particularly in the north and it will be windy with coastal gales probable in the north and west. Thereafter, the final few days of January and early February are likely to remain rather unsettled with brisk winds, outbreaks of rain and hill snow, as well as some showery interludes in between. It will remain cold for most with widespread overnight frosts as well as the risk of ice. Snow remains a possibility to lower levels, particularly in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 19 Feb 2019:

The weather will continue to be mixed through early February with a continuation of the generally cold conditions. This will bring spells of rain and hill snow, interspersed by showery interludes, with a continued risk of snow to lower levels, especially in the north. As we head through February there is an increased chance of seeing very cold conditions developing with a greater probability of northerly or easterly winds. This will bring an increased risk of snow to all areas and more widespread frost, however there remains some uncertainty. In this scenario the driest conditions will be across the northwest, whilst the south could see wetter and occasionally milder interludes, bringing a risk of more significant snow.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Or not Rob 

A repeat of the forecasts starting in December...Jam tomorrow....