So elderly Geordies are doubly-affected?

 

 

😁

GFS in recent days has overcooked the shower risk. I remember seeing a discussion a few days ago about how much rain there would be this week. ICON and Arpege were both much nearer the mark than GFS. Having said that I've been in St Mawes, Cornwall this week and yesterday it was cool, quite windy and very wet. Didn't feel like the UK was enjoying the best start to summer since 1976.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw= 

It’s quite a consistent theme now and the last few ECM op runs seem to be showing similar: high pressure retreating into the mid Atlantic and turning the mean flow Northwesterly. Sometimes with heights rising over Greenland, sometimes not.

Could this be the well established mid July switch we’ve seen in so many recent years?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GEM&var=2&time=312&run=12&lid=P02&h=0&tr=6 

It has stood firm a few times earlier in the season where GFS showed a breakdown, although in the last few times it was on the same side as ECM.

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I just assume this type of stagnant block is not something the models look for and so seek to return us to the past 'average'?

It won't rub!

This summer is doing its own thang

 

 

 

 

 

 

or maybe the early noughties warnings were sound?...... what will us opening a record number of vineyards last year and now all needing Mediterranean plants this year ................

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ECM 12z is finely balanced. The mid Atlantic ridging trend is there but the jet stream never dives too far South, at least up to 240z

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I think it's time to stick the (barbecue) fork in this spell. The writing is on the wall now with even the ECM calling an end to the settled stuff. After Tuesday the 850s look like retreating back into single figures for much of the country now. As ever, as soon as the media start to get on board, the models flip.

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Still looks good.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

I have seen one or two crap runs. Lets hope they don't verify.

 

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I think it's time to stick the (barbecue) fork in this spell now. The writing is on the wall now with even the ECM calling an end to the settled stuff.

I wouldn't call and end to it just yet tbh, Rob. More runs are still needed in my view.

For instance, I seem to recall that about three weeks ago when the models first began to pick up on the arrival of the HP cell from the Azores which has given us this heatwave, a few GFS and ECM runs at that time were indicating that it would last for no more than a few days before pressure either fell from the NW or there was a thundery breakdown from the south. Yet here we are, a fortnight on from when this fantastic spell began and any possible breakdown is still at least a week away.

GFS and the ECM 12z may be right, but I wouldn't be making assumptions either way at the moment because this is not a normal pattern we are experiencing.

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I wouldn't call and end to it just yet tbh, Rob. More runs are still needed in my view.

I will be keeping an eye on the Met Office updates. At the moment they are still fairly bullish about the rest of July, but that could change.

The automated output on my phone reflects the steady downgrade of the models: this morning it was showing a run of 28s and 29s right out to the end of the 10-day period. Now it is 25s to 27s. Still looks like a mostly fine week coming up - don't get me wrong! I just want some more heat, as down here in the south the nagging easterly wind has often prevented it being a real scorcher.

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We’ve probably suffered from having seen a proper heatwave in the charts a few days ago, with mid 30s. It’s stopped us focusing on today and the following 3 days all of which promise 30C+ maxes. Today hit 31C in Pershore for example.

Any other year a 4, possibly 5 day run of 30s would be considered a good heatwave, whereas I’m finding myself discounting it as a run up to the main event which was going to be next week.

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We’ve probably suffered from having seen a proper heatwave in the charts a few days ago, with mid 30s. It’s stopped us focusing on today and the following 3 days all of which promise 30C+ maxes. Today hit 31C in Pershore for example.

Any other year a 4, possibly 5 day run of 30s would be considered a good heatwave, whereas I’m finding myself discounting it as a run up to the main event which was going to be next week.

Yes, Arpege is still going for maxima of 31C, 33C, 34C, 32C over the next four days, which is not bad at all. It also shows minima not falling below 22C overnight in some places, which I think is a bit optimistic.

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Yes, Arpege is still going for maxima of 31C, 33C, 34C, 32C over the next four days, which is not bad at all. It also shows minima not falling below 22C overnight in some places, which I think is a bit optimistic.

 

Arpege was the best model regarding temps today so id expect those temps to be pretty close.

ECM quite progressive today the other models continue the heat but maybe mid 20s rather than low 30s.

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I think it's time to stick the (barbecue) fork in this spell. 

Over the last 48h the EC ens has been trending towards a breakdown after the ~15th of July (with pressure rising over Greenland).

I think it will probably fail again (as will the very hot runs).

Expect a bit more uncertainty in the MetO updates for H2 July.

 

You dont need big 850;s this time of year Rob they only become more important about after the 3 week of August 

looks like a typical n/w s/e split to me.

 

I think it's time to stick the (barbecue) fork in this spell. The writing is on the wall now with even the ECM calling an end to the settled stuff. After Tuesday the 850s look like retreating back into single figures for much of the country now. As ever, as soon as the media start to get on board, the models flip.

But you can’t measure 2 Metre T like that in July  this is for London across its members  some keep it very warm until 21st

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=GEM&var=2&time=312&run=12&lid=P02&h=0&tr=6 

It has stood firm a few times earlier in the season where GFS showed a breakdown, although in the last few times it was on the same side as ECM.

Day 9 ECM means nothing to alarming perhaps no heatwave but above average temps and little rain. I think some are getting overly worried for nothing. 

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

 

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There was a good stagnant block in July 13, after such a grim late winter. Has anyone considered the possibilities beyond the party line that a late winter SSW event could have a +ve feedback effect for later in the year? 1947 might be another example to investigate but I find sadly that continuous Start temps were not maintained until 1951. The protocul statement is that it can take from a few days to a few weeks to take place-

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming

which translated means to me the scientists have not fully understood the science involved (unsurprising giving the timescales of continuous measurement) and/or the effects are not predictable precisely. Either way, I would suggest there is a possibility of longer term effects if the SSW is significant enough to begin with; after all, the event sometimes produces little surface outcome eg in terms of winter cold; why not an enhanced outcome on other occasions? 

Physicists (I am not one): can systems be perpetuated longer than expected because of their +ve feedbacks and deviations from expected?

Someone do a correlation of late winter SSWs of any magnitude, and anomalous blocking patterns (ie not the Atlantic N-S aligned high to our west). It's got to be worth it- can't be any forgettable than the OPI surely?

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Day 9 ECM means nothing to alarming perhaps no heatwave but above average temps and little rain. I think some are getting overly worried for nothing. 

To be fair the EC mean for day 12 does have a trough over the UK and a WNW flow, but that's still too far out and I'd be surprised if it comes forward.

 

 

Yes, Arpege is still going for maxima of 31C, 33C, 34C, 32C over the next four days, which is not bad at all. It also shows minima not falling below 22C overnight in some places, which I think is a bit optimistic.

Would depend on the lucky coincidence cloud cover, humidity and breeze away from city centres, but with very strong sunshine and ambients of 32+, 20+ mins is certainly a chance. Higher would, I agree, need higher 850s.

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To be fair the EC mean for day 12 does have a trough over the UK and a WNW flow, but that's still too far out and I'd be surprised if it comes forward.

 

 

It's going to be interesting to see if we do go unsettled mid month and how long its lasts. A real test for the models. Looks set fair for the next 8 to 10 days though.

 

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