Day 9 ECM means nothing to alarming perhaps no heatwave but above average temps and little rain. I think some are getting overly worried for nothing. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

There was a good stagnant block in July 13, after such a grim late winter. Has anyone considered the possibilities beyond the party line that a late winter SSW event could have a +ve feedback effect for later in the year? 1947 might be another example to investigate but I find sadly that continuous Start temps were not maintained until 1951. The protocul statement is that it can take from a few days to a few weeks to take place-

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming

which translated means to me the scientists have not fully understood the science involved (unsurprising giving the timescales of continuous measurement) and/or the effects are not predictable precisely. Either way, I would suggest there is a possibility of longer term effects if the SSW is significant enough to begin with; after all, the event sometimes produces little surface outcome eg in terms of winter cold; why not an enhanced outcome on other occasions? 

Physicists (I am not one): can systems be perpetuated longer than expected because of their +ve feedbacks and deviations from expected?

Someone do a correlation of late winter SSWs of any magnitude, and anomalous blocking patterns (ie not the Atlantic N-S aligned high to our west). It's got to be worth it- can't be any forgettable than the OPI surely?

To be fair the EC mean for day 12 does have a trough over the UK and a WNW flow, but that's still too far out and I'd be surprised if it comes forward.

Would depend on the lucky coincidence cloud cover, humidity and breeze away from city centres, but with very strong sunshine and ambients of 32+, 20+ mins is certainly a chance. Higher would, I agree, need higher 850s.

It's going to be interesting to see if we do go unsettled mid month and how long its lasts. A real test for the models. Looks set fair for the next 8 to 10 days though.

Tipping point remains around 15th July IMO

Bearing in mind the June Monsoon never materialised it remains in the balance for me.

Would be nice to get a shot at the furnace but no sign of intense heat at present 

Off topic - I am over the water from St. Mawes, and have been off work due to a recent emergency op for the past 2 weeks. To be fair, the weather has been amazing during this period, to the point I was actually feeling guilty for being in recovery during it!

This week I returned back to work, and yes it has been hit and miss, wet at times, and not so good. That said, the days rain yesterday was much needed and received!

2nd weekend in June down here I was participating in an ultra marathon that was brutal because of the extreme heat and sun. And this kind of stayed. This week has been the only diversion from that weather there has been since June. Sorry Brian, you chose the wrong week! 😁

In many years I have not known such a sustainable period of warmth, clear weather here. 

ECM delays the breakdown to day 10 again pushed back to 16th July now.

Arpege going for 35C this Sunday:

As expected because that what we suffered before during poor summers that unsettled breakdown to settled weather never come below 10 days range,  Make a change and hope to see this continuing.   I booked 4 weeks off from next weekend onward mainly due to moving house so need lot of settled days to move stuff around.

Would be a record 23C range from 12C uppers with 35C max somewhere, it show the drier the ground is the range from uppers to ground surface become more further apart than normal 15C range.  What about Monday as I am off?  At least everyone is off on Sunday and should see all beaches packed with low 30's on the south coast.

Indeed. To get a summer with pretty much no unsettled breaks is virtually impossible, if I'm honest. Even 1976 and 1995 had some cooler and unsettled periods at times. Low-20s and the odd shower is still not bad... have we really become that used to warmth and dryness?

19 July 1976: low pressure over the UK:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976071900_1.png

4 July 1995: northerly winds and low pressure heading down the North Sea:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1995/noaa/NOAA_1_1995070400_1.png

Anyway this morning's runs haven't really changed much. GFS keeping us pleasantly warm with high pressure not too far away. ECM threatens to bring the Atlantic in by day 9, but never really gets anywhere at this stage:

Good ridging.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

My view this morning is that the signal for a breakdown has weakened.