LeedsLad123
02 July 2018 23:19:26

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


18z FI threatens a bit of 2012 action. And there’s still the whole of August.


I was just looking through the 2013 archive charts. Mid way through July you’d have thought the patter was set in stone for the season, that isn’t what happened. So it could easily all go pear shaped and end in a damp squib. Like late winter 2010-11 and late summer 1994, 2006, 2013, 2015.


But on the other hand even a moderately decent rest of summer now would mean 2018 being up there as candidate for best summer of the 2010s.



August 2013 was decent, so that would presumably fill the requirements. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
bradders
03 July 2018 08:16:56

Originally Posted by: Caz 


 Cheers Brian. I don’t understand it but at least there’s an explanation!  


I was lost after the first 4 words "interpolation from a gaussian grid"



Eric. Cheadle Hulme, Stockport.
Rob K
03 July 2018 10:02:14
This mornings ECM seems to lose the high pressure a bit towards the end. 00Z GFS also brings a fresher incursion by mid July although a ridge does build again after that.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
03 July 2018 11:09:26
6Z GFS has 20C 850s in the south by July 13, before a very wet looking breakdown. Also seeing high pressure building over Greenland, with high pressure to the south of the UK trapping the jet across the country. No thanks!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
03 July 2018 11:48:43

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

6Z GFS has 20C 850s in the south by July 13, before a very wet looking breakdown. Also seeing high pressure building over Greenland, with high pressure to the south of the UK trapping the jet across the country. No thanks!


Definitely no thanks!


Thankfully operational charts at that timeframe mean so little.


The op was clearly the hottest member on 12th July. Thereafter there's a fair amount of scatter, only a couple of members tip below the long term average.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS06_52_0_201.png


Interestingly the precipitation spike for 6th July is higher than any other point in the run. 


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Polar Low
03 July 2018 12:18:28

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


FWIW look at the mean Joe for around the 12th July fab stuff


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0


 


 


Definitely no thanks!


Thankfully operational charts at that timeframe mean so little.


The op was clearly the hottest member on 12th July. Thereafter there's a fair amount of scatter, only a couple of members tip below the long term average.


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSENS06_52_0_201.png


Interestingly the precipitation spike for 6th July is higher than any other point in the run. 


 


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 17:01:15
Looks like GFS 12z is continuing the recent trend and gearing up for the traditional start of the school holidays...
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
03 July 2018 17:02:41
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png 

GFS 12Z goes cooler and more unsettled too. It's the Greenland high rebuilding that I don't want to see.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
03 July 2018 17:10:01
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png 

GFS 12Z goes cooler and more unsettled too. It's the Greenland high rebuilding that I don't want to see.


Not concerned just yet. This breakdown was meant to have already started. This week was forecast to be much wetter and cooler. Quite the opposite.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Jiries
03 July 2018 17:19:37

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Looks like GFS 12z is continuing the recent trend and gearing up for the traditional start of the school holidays...


If that does happen I don't think it will be very bad as last year which was like a switch off from 18th July onward and never recovered.  Like what moomin said supposed to be unsettled from 1st July here had been cancelled and push further away so hopefully it carry on until Autumn then they can do what they want.  Remember the models last year was showing settled runs in the FI from 18th July onward and it kept pushing back and back all the way to Autumn, bar brief settled warm BH weekend.

Polar Low
03 July 2018 17:25:24

I don’t see any problems it always gets pushed back look at 216 no clear signal silly to look that far really.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=216


Gm looks very hot at that time


 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php


In any case we do live in the uk we will get a let up at sometime but the outlook looks very good to me.


 


quote=Jiries;1013341]


 


If that does happen I don't think it will be very bad as last year which was like a switch off from 18th July onward and never recovered.  Like what moomin said supposed to be unsettled from 1st July here had been cancelled and push further away so hopefully it carry on until Autumn then they can do what they want.  Remember the models last year was showing settled runs in the FI from 18th July onward and it kept pushing back and back all the way to Autumn, bar brief settled warm BH weekend.


Arcus
03 July 2018 17:26:45
GFS 12z ensembles (for what it's worth) look more consistent to me in the mid- to longer-term than the 6z in terms of keeping the heat going.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
David M Porter
03 July 2018 17:27:22

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 


Not concerned just yet. This breakdown was meant to have already started. This week was forecast to be much wetter and cooler. Quite the opposite.



Indeed- I can remember the BBC's week ahead forecast last Monday night saying that there would be a thundery breakdown of sorts early this week followed by a cooler period with high pressure possibly returning afterwards. No sooner had they issued that forecast, the models slowly but surely back away from the idea of a breakdown this week.


IMO, 10 days ahead is the limit as to how far ahead we should be looking with any degree of confidence. I have heard it said many times before that the models often struggle more with blocked set-ups than they so with mobile west-east patterns and so a lot could change at relatively short notice, as was demonstrated pretty well last week.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Polar Low
03 July 2018 17:28:31

cool Exactly very good outlook no worries


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

GFS 12z ensembles (for what it's worth) look more consistent to me in the mid- to longer-term than the 6z in terms of keeping the heat going.

Brian Gaze
03 July 2018 17:31:44
To be fair tomorrow looks like being cloudier with a risk of showers in the south, and today it's cooler and wetter in parts of the south west. Northern areas will also have more mixed conditions at times in the next few days. Therefore I think the models have been pretty good for this week. The issue has been more on the presentation / interpretation side by certain agencies.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
03 July 2018 17:47:06
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Not TOO much sign of a definitive breakdown here.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Polar Low
03 July 2018 17:55:29

FWIW 


Monday 16 July—Sunday 29 July


Often dry. Elevated risk of heat wave conditions.


There are slightly stronger indications than previously for hotter and somewhat drier than normal conditions into the second half of July. Indeed, high pressure is still likely to influence the weather over the country. It looks as though high pressure is most likely to shift a little further east across Europe; this should have two effects. First of all, the focus of the very dry conditions looks like moving to central and eastern Europe although the UK is still favoured to be somewhat drier than normal. Secondly, if high pressure does shift further east, this would allow a plume of heat to move in from central and southern Europe at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to be often above the July average and there is an elevated risk of heat wave conditions at times across the country. Indeed, there does appear to be prospects for temperatures to reach at least the low 30s Celsius at times. Occasionally, some showers or thunderstorms would be expected to drift in from the south, these appear most likely over southern parts of the country, with the north and north-east favoured to have the driest conditions. There are slight chances that high pressure could move far enough away to allow significantly wetter and somewhat cooler conditions to spread from the Atlantic. However, more likely is for rainfall amounts to remain somewhat below normal and temperatures to remain above the seasonal norm.


 


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Not TOO much sign of a definitive breakdown here.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2018 18:21:58
Any resolution yet on whether we’re going to see meaningful rain in the South tomorrow and Thursday?

GFS says yes, with one pink area suggesting 40mm. Arpege and Icon say no, as does GEM. The BBC seems to think it’s low chance of isolated showers.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
xioni2
03 July 2018 18:52:53

A very quick look at the EC 12z run shows a typical example of much higher pressure north of the UK. Over the last few months the models have had significant negative bias in pressure there during days 7-15 (basically they keep underestimating the persistence of the blocking high and they mean revert too much).


I expect the ens to have more high pressure even after the 15th.


 


 

moomin75
03 July 2018 18:59:27
Steady as she goes on ECM. Settled most of the time with again just a hint of a breakdown at 240hrs....where it's been most of the time.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Users browsing this topic

Ads