Indeed- I can remember the BBC's week ahead forecast last Monday night saying that there would be a thundery breakdown of sorts early this week followed by a cooler period with high pressure possibly returning afterwards. No sooner had they issued that forecast, the models slowly but surely back away from the idea of a breakdown this week.

IMO, 10 days ahead is the limit as to how far ahead we should be looking with any degree of confidence. I have heard it said many times before that the models often struggle more with blocked set-ups than they so with mobile west-east patterns and so a lot could change at relatively short notice, as was demonstrated pretty well last week.

 Exactly very good outlook no worries

Not TOO much sign of a definitive breakdown here.

FWIW 

Monday 16 July—Sunday 29 July

Often dry. Elevated risk of heat wave conditions.

There are slightly stronger indications than previously for hotter and somewhat drier than normal conditions into the second half of July. Indeed, high pressure is still likely to influence the weather over the country. It looks as though high pressure is most likely to shift a little further east across Europe; this should have two effects. First of all, the focus of the very dry conditions looks like moving to central and eastern Europe although the UK is still favoured to be somewhat drier than normal. Secondly, if high pressure does shift further east, this would allow a plume of heat to move in from central and southern Europe at times. Overall, temperatures are likely to be often above the July average and there is an elevated risk of heat wave conditions at times across the country. Indeed, there does appear to be prospects for temperatures to reach at least the low 30s Celsius at times. Occasionally, some showers or thunderstorms would be expected to drift in from the south, these appear most likely over southern parts of the country, with the north and north-east favoured to have the driest conditions. There are slight chances that high pressure could move far enough away to allow significantly wetter and somewhat cooler conditions to spread from the Atlantic. However, more likely is for rainfall amounts to remain somewhat below normal and temperatures to remain above the seasonal norm.

GFS says yes, with one pink area suggesting 40mm. Arpege and Icon say no, as does GEM. The BBC seems to think it’s low chance of isolated showers.

A very quick look at the EC 12z run shows a typical example of much higher pressure north of the UK. Over the last few months the models have had significant negative bias in pressure there during days 7-15 (basically they keep underestimating the persistence of the blocking high and they mean revert too much).

I expect the ens to have more high pressure even after the 15th.

It's almost like last year in reverse isn't it! Last year, the earliest that any possible settled spells seemed to ever appear in the model output was at 240hrs or even further out. What a difference a year makes.

I think we’ve got to the stage now where it all feels a bit too good to be true. 

You would expect to see signs of a breakdown by now, but as much as you try to find them, they just aren’t there. 

12z ECM is solid as far as the eye can see, as is the MetO. GEFS mean at T+240 (about as far ahead as can be trusted) shows yet more of the same. High pressure and warm temperatures. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_240_1.png

As it stands, this is an exceptionally good spell of weather, and the outlook remains exceptional. 

The EC15 has been fairly consistent now for some sort of breakdown towards mid-month as the jet moves very gradually more south. I sincerely hope it has caught onto something. 

I had to cheer up with the models and splendid EC ens as expected with much* higher pressure in the north throughout. That translates to sunnier and cooler next week (vs the 00z run) and then drier, warmer and sunnier for the following week.

Once again it drops several of the very hot paths for next week and the breakdown paths at the end.

The show goes on!

*The average change at 500hPa north of the UK in days 7-15 was a very big 100-150dam in this run (it basically switched from weak troughing on day 15 to moderate ridging).

Gone already in the latest run!

Hence, presumably, the change to the Met Office long ranger.

No, those met office updates are using the EC46 runs (which are basically the 00z runs of Monday and Thursday extended to 46 days out). The latest one (EC00 from Mon) had weak ridging for the 2nd half of July, but since then the 12z run of yesterday and 00z run of today had trended more unsettled, until tonight's big reversal.

One of the reasons I guess why the Met Office can be a bit behind.

Noooooooooooooooooooo…. 

I am still holding out some hope as the latest 10 dayer is showing some sort of weak troughing to become established towards mid-July, but as you suggest, looks weaker on this run.

Hoping the 15 dayer will show it gaining strength when it is released later. 

Oh, shut up your attention-seeking whinging.

You get crap (damp/wet, cool, dull) weather almost every year; just accept the very rare nice spell.

I'll accept nothing that is disagreeable to me. 

Bring on the cool, blessed rain.  (wishful thinking I fear)

The rest of us have to accept crap weather, so I'm afraid you have no choice. Just the way it is.