Brian Gaze
22 January 2018 21:52:05

Originally Posted by: Phil G 

Believe Brian mentioned some time ago about cleaner air and less fogs.
Still doesn't answer the other changes since the seventies.



Yes. Several years ago I speculated about the impact of deindustrialisation and in particular developments in central and eastern Europe since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Whilst I am sure a "rose tinted view of the past" is applicable in some cases there is no doubt that winters since 1991 have on the whole been milder. Perhaps of more interest in the short term is that I think we can say with a growing degree of confidence that the most recent batch of colder winters (2008 - 2013) has finished.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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doctormog
22 January 2018 21:53:31

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


 


Been running daily charts from 1st Jan to March starting in 1969 and working backwards to 1963 which was quite remarkeable how the cold reloaded and came back at us again and again.


Few observations overall during the sixties was the amount of cold to the north to east of us. It did not take much pattern change to bring the cold air in as it was so near, virtually on tap. The jet was much less powerful. Not many of these long ribbons running from the eastern seaboard, very fragmented and they dived south quite often. The atmosphere was quite turbulent though in that there were frequent changes in pressure. Again that cold air nearby was easy to grab and bring in albeit from a west- east moving low pressure or high pressure nearby.


 



Looking at the data across the decades, were the 60s the exception rather than the norm?


Gray-Wolf
22 January 2018 22:47:49

I'd better not throw in my ha'pence worth..... The trolls would be on it in a flash ,suffice to say lock at the date of the records in our weather data esp. second and third places?


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Karl Guille
22 January 2018 23:01:59
I will be fifty in 1 hrs time and can say with some certainty that cold easterlies / south-easterlies down here are almost a thing of the past. I can't say exact dates without spending some time researching them but I recall deep snow when I was around 6 or 7 and then in my mid to late teens (so circa 1982 - 1987) I recall relatively severe cold spells with lying snow on at least four or five occasions. Again in around 1990 and perhaps a year or two later we had two more fairly severe spells, I think it was in about 1989 / 90 that we had several ice days and overnight lows circa -5 or 6 which is pretty unheard of in these parts! Since then, maybe two or three similar episodes at very most and a couple of over night episodes and the famous 2013 snow drifts!!
St. Sampson
Guernsey
Rob K
22 January 2018 23:22:04
http://trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/britweather_years.html 

There was plenty of very boring weather in the past. It's the very nature of memory that the interesting bits get remembered, so you remember every exciting spell over say 30 years and they all get compressed together in your mind.

The 1960s and 1970s look absolutely dire for the most part. Yes there was winter 1963 but there wasn't a single decent summer in the whole decade!
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Norseman
22 January 2018 23:36:43

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


That must have been some winter. Which year was it?


memory is a funny thing so I always prefer facts and solid data sets. Thankfully many are available including everything from snowfall catalogues, almanacs and graphical presentations. 


http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html


http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/britweather_years.html 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/averages/maps/uk/6190_1km/SnowLying_Average_1961-1990_16.gif 


There are some great winters in the last 40 years or so but there are plenty of poor ones in terms of wintry weather. (And yes no extremely cold easterlies for a while)



I'm with you on this doc. Memory is a funny thing and I have been around since the fifties.

LeedsLad123
22 January 2018 23:40:29

I've mentioned this before, but I remember talking to someone from Finland on another weather forum and they mentioned that the 1961-1990 weather period in Scandinavia was actually colder than the preceding 30-year period, and that the 1980s broke all manner of cold records, so the 1961-1990 period was anomalously cold. Not sure if that applies here too, but I found it interesting.

And as Rob K mentions, the summers were shocking in the 1960s. There were summer shockers in the 1980s too that make 2007 look balmy (1986 looked astonishingly bad).


Oh, and if you rely on easterlies for cold and snow then you're bound to have a poorer view of the past 20-odd years than if you don't. Here in Leeds we can get snow from pretty much any direction but easterlies have a tendency to be cold and dry here. 1987 was very snowy for places like Kent and Essex up here it wasn't. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
some faraway beach
22 January 2018 23:55:17

I was born in Aug. 1961, so have no memory at all of 1963. This meant that for most of my life the benchmark for an epic winter was 1981-2, because I was living in W Germany at the time. Absolutely nothing I could remember from any winter of my life until then, spent in Slough, Berkshire, was comparable to that experience of a proper continental winter. The depth of cold, its longevity, the persistence of snow and the disruption to everyday life were all entirely new. And it meant that when I returned to this country, I just scoffed at every example of supposed cold weather, including those 1980s easterlies, as poor imitations of the real thing ...


... Until December 2010. 


I do understand why a few people on this forum, owing to their particularly unfortunate location, won't be convinced that that they lived through one of the ultimate winter events that this country can deliver. But the fact is that if you're talking about perfect, memorable winter cold, you want it to happen in the run-up to and around the shortest day, and the effects to persist until the 25th. And this did it, to a degree no one alive had ever experienced. 


Proper nationwide records, i.e. the Met Office ones, go back to 1910, and not only did 2010 boast the lowest mean December temperature, at minus 1.0 C, it utterly smashed the previous record of plus 0.1 C. And that had been set in Dec. 1981, which had hitherto been my benchmark.


I just can't have it that, from the point of view of the experience on the ground, wonderful cold weather or snow is a thing of the last century. Most of you lot have only just recently experienced a Dickensian Christmas on a scale that Dickens himself never experienced or could have imagined. (The December CET was minus 0.7 C, and only December 1890 is lower, at minus 0.8 C; Dickens was long dead by then - and there's no colder December going back to 1659).


It baffles me that some people on here simply don't appreciate that they have experienced the Holy Grail of winter, and that it happened so recently.


(For what its worth, my second-favourite winter event was also relatively recent - the West Country blizzard of Nov. 2005, because it combined the lot - surprise, earliness and proper disruption, i.e. hundreds of stranded motorists, school closures and those all-important RAF airlifts; I accept that such events may also have happened in autumns in the old days, but it was good to have it confirmed that they still happen in the here and now too.)


2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Retron
23 January 2018 04:17:27

Originally Posted by: some faraway beach 


It baffles me that some people on here simply don't appreciate that they have experienced the Holy Grail of winter, and that it happened so recently.



IMBYism, innt?


2010 was okay, but it was sopping wet snow rather than powder. No icicles. Ice days, yes, barely, but not coinciding with snowfall hence no powder. Feb 2005 saw much more snow, for far longer - it was the last time we had a textbook easterly setup, just a shame it was so late in the winter.


Jan 1997 was much better. Powder, icicles, daytime highs of -2 or -3 (and a string of ice days), sublimating snow (another thing not seen since then) and a proper deep cold easterly rather than recirculated northerlies.


Jan 96 was also better, as was Feb 91, Jan 87, Feb 86... the list goes on.


I can't believe that some people on here simply don't appreciate that 2010 was relatively pants in the far SE.


Leysdown, north Kent
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 January 2018 06:19:12

Originally Posted by: Karl Guille 

I will be fifty in 1 hrs time and can say with some certainty that cold easterlies / south-easterlies down here are almost a thing of the past. I can't say exact dates without spending some time researching them but I recall deep snow when I was around 6 or 7 and then in my mid to late teens (so circa 1982 - 1987) I recall relatively severe cold spells with lying snow on at least four or five occasions. Again in around 1990 and perhaps a year or two later we had two more fairly severe spells, I think it was in about 1989 / 90 that we had several ice days and overnight lows circa -5 or 6 which is pretty unheard of in these parts! Since then, maybe two or three similar episodes at very most and a couple of over night episodes and the famous 2013 snow drifts!!

Happy Birthday Karl!  Me too but I can give you more than a decade and I can remember more birthdays with rain than anything!  The odd occasion when it has snowed here on 23rd January, it’s mostly been just a few flakes.  For my 50th, my hubby took me away for a few days, further north in the hope I’d see snow. I didn’t but it was frosty.  


The one that was memorable was January 2011.  We’d had a lot of snow from December 2010, in fact it started here on 27th November, with a fair covering followed by freezing, then a heavy fall on 1st December and even more on the 3rd.  18” in all, albeit compacted.  We had some ice days too and very low overnight temps, so the milder Christmas period thaws, just froze again. So by my birthday, the snow was still here, with fresh snow on ice but it was quite tedious by then.  After two months of disruptive ice and snow, you resolve to be careful what you wish for!  


It’s currently raining here!  Which is what it does on this day most years!  


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Brian Gaze
23 January 2018 07:12:35

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


IMBYism, innt?


2010 was okay, but it was sopping wet snow rather than powder. No icicles. Ice days, yes, barely, but not coinciding with snowfall hence no powder. Feb 2005 saw much more snow, for far longer - it was the last time we had a textbook easterly setup, just a shame it was so late in the winter.


Jan 1997 was much better. Powder, icicles, daytime highs of -2 or -3 (and a string of ice days), sublimating snow (another thing not seen since then) and a proper deep cold easterly rather than recirculated northerlies.


Jan 96 was also better, as was Feb 91, Jan 87, Feb 86... the list goes on.


I can't believe that some people on here simply don't appreciate that 2010 was relatively pants in the far SE.



 I can remember back in the 80s snow was disappearing despite temperatures remaining below 0C. My chemistry teach Mr Moyce referenced it as an example of sublimation ! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LeedsLad123
23 January 2018 08:30:52

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


IMBYism, innt?


2010 was okay, but it was sopping wet snow rather than powder. No icicles. Ice days, yes, barely, but not coinciding with snowfall hence no powder. Feb 2005 saw much more snow, for far longer - it was the last time we had a textbook easterly setup, just a shame it was so late in the winter.


Jan 1997 was much better. Powder, icicles, daytime highs of -2 or -3 (and a string of ice days), sublimating snow (another thing not seen since then) and a proper deep cold easterly rather than recirculated northerlies.


Jan 96 was also better, as was Feb 91, Jan 87, Feb 86... the list goes on.


I can't believe that some people on here simply don't appreciate that 2010 was relatively pants in the far SE.



Isn't that the point? Your perspective will depend on where in the country you live. January 1997, for example, was nothing special here - totally forgettable in fact. Didn't even deliver any ice days in this neck of the woods. 


I think during many of the notable late 20th century winters, the SE was snowier than the rest of the country, which is why months like January 1987 and February 1986 are not held in very high regard here. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
NMA
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  • Advanced Member
23 January 2018 08:40:21

As many have pointed out there really is a lack of cold winter easterlies in the south of England. They seemed to stop about 20 years ago as Darren and others often mention.


2010 was an exception that was notable for this part of the UK (south Dorset) in that there was snow on the ground on Christmas Day. This was the only time I can recall snow on the ground on Christmas Day. It was a real White Christmas with a sharp frost, blue skies crisp snow but if I had put money on it being a White Christmas I would have lost out as technically snow has to fall on that day. And it didn’t as a bookie would have gleefully told me. Local too. We went to family on Christmas Day early in the morning in south Hampshire but there was no snow in the Lymington area. It ceased somewhere near Bere Regis.


When we came back near home near a place called Waddock we saw a herd of “Father Christmas” deer with antlers (Sika ones actually but magical all the same) and took photos of them in the snow. Again the only time I have ever seen such a thing. Quite a Christmas for the children to remember but since then snow of any variety has been almost as rare as proverbial hens teeth in this part of the UK.


I now have to get my snow fix from webcams such as the one on Etna where the snow comes and goes in sublimation at this time of year but you stand a chance of combining fire and ice. You could of course never do this pre the Internet.


 


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Phil G
23 January 2018 08:51:06

Looking at the link Ben kindly provided, running the charts in the sixties our cold spells there mainly came in mid February. Our hottest day was 8th August so perhaps nearly a contra that six months later the colder spells set in.
That cold air however easily barrelled into Scandinavia, then towards us. High pressure areas that brought the cold in those days were beasts from the easts, a very rare sight nowadays.

Saint Snow
23 January 2018 10:13:42

I think there's an element of rose-tintedness at play - but I think perception depends on where you live (and perhaps lived in the late 70's/early-to-mid-80's).


For me, and looking at winters only for the moment, I remember growing up and getting snow every year. This may be a false memory and there were the odd winter where it was snowless, but I can remember about 6 distinct and separate events up to be being around 12/13 years old, plus fragments of others.


What stands out is that it's only the December 81 event that I remember as having snow lying on the ground for any good length of time (think it was around 3 weeks).


I also remember a few very cold but dry spells through the 70's & 80's. But also spells of wet and not-cold weather, too.


My perception is that snow seems to have then become rarer from the late-80's. That coincides with me 'growing up' so there's an argument that I became less focussed on each snowfall event, but that's not really true. I remember a few early 'snow safaris', with my mates, as the really heavy snow forecast fell as rain/sleet/wet snow here. There were a few other snow events I remember in the 90's, but it was the late-Dec '00 snowfall that sticks out as being something out of the ordinary (IIRC was around 5-6" deep), and there was another fall in March 01. Perhaps it was just the timing (a few days after Xmas), or that I was off work and could enjoy it - but it's memorable. And we had snow the very same night the following year (not as deep, but it lasted into the New Year). Maybe it's just that my interest re-sparked around then, but winter prospects for MBY - especially from the 2005/6 winter onwards - seemed to have kicked back into the realm of being comparable to those winters of my childhood.


But the prime spots for snow seem more spread around the UK these days, and not concentrated on the SE, which the 80's seemed to do. We've had an extended run of winters without the infamous 'long fetch easterly' - although looking back through history tells us that it's not always been as common as it was in the 80's which was a bit of an anomaly in itself and may have skewed perceptions of what's 'normal'.


My own (very skeletal!) theory is that climate change, especially the changing characteristics of Arctic Sea Ice, has led to a varying range of set-ups predominating for a few years before morphing into another. We had a preponderance of HLB/southerly-jet set-ups - in summer probably more than winter - from the late-00's to mid-10's. Before that, we saw a higher frequency of mid-Atlantic blocks. There's deviations from each, obviously. I'm sure I put this better in a recent post...


 


 



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Saint Snow
23 January 2018 10:18:40

I'll also add that my memories of childhood are of mostly mild Decembers, with better weather coming later in the winter. 81/2 is obviously the exception, but I do remember a run of very cold (but very dry) weather around Xmas in the mid-90's. And, of course, we (MBY) had snow that settled in that general Yuletide period in 96, 00, 01, 04, 09, 10, 11, 14.


The incidence of cold and/or snow around Xmas has markedly increased since the mid-90's IMO.



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JACKO4EVER
23 January 2018 11:29:33

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


That must have been some winter. Which year was it?


memory is a funny thing so I always prefer facts and solid data sets. Thankfully many are available including everything from snowfall catalogues, almanacs and graphical presentations. 


http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html


http://www.trevorharley.com/weather_web_pages/britweather_years.html 


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/averages/maps/uk/6190_1km/SnowLying_Average_1961-1990_16.gif 


There are some great winters in the last 40 years or so but there are plenty of poor ones in terms of wintry weather. (And yes no extremely cold easterlies for a while)



 


Doc it was more of a culmination of winters in general- though I must stress for my area it needs deep easterlies to deliver. But when they arrived- it was often epic. I can however remember a really dry easterly that didn't deliver much snow but was bitter- may have been 84 or 86 ?

Brian Gaze
23 January 2018 12:01:52

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I'll also add that my memories of childhood are of mostly mild Decembers, with better weather coming later in the winter. 81/2 is obviously the exception, but I do remember a run of very cold (but very dry) weather around Xmas in the mid-90's. And, of course, we (MBY) had snow that settled in that general Yuletide period in 96, 00, 01, 04, 09, 10, 11, 14.


The incidence of cold and/or snow around Xmas has markedly increased since the mid-90's IMO.



That's a very good point IMO. I would look forward to Christmas and then look forward to the snow. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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LeedsLad123
23 January 2018 12:39:36

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


 


 


Doc it was more of a culmination of winters in general- though I must stress for my area it needs deep easterlies to deliver. But when they arrived- it was often epic. I can however remember a really dry easterly that didn't deliver much snow but was bitter- may have been 84 or 86 ?



Feb '86 was cold but dry here. I saw some pictures of Bradford in January 1984 and there was a lot of snow there, so it was probably similar here.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
23 January 2018 12:42:25

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


 


Feb '86 was cold but dry here. I saw some pictures of Bradford in January 1984 and there was a lot of snow there, so it was probably similar here.



 


There was one winter around that era that saw prolonged cold - I remember the running joke in our house about the birdbath in the back garden still being frozen; went on for seemingly weeks



Martin
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