As an example of what I was talking about in my post above, here is a comparison of the ECM and GFS 12z charts for T+168, i.e a week from today:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

Until exactly what ex-storm Gert is likely to do becomes clear, we should take all output for the period beyond early next week with a pinch of salt, in my view.

Another 11th hour spoiler that potentially threatens to ruin 3 or 4 days next week. For Scotland summer never really got started this year and since 20th July this recurring unsettled theme has also affected the south. 

Fortunately the traditional 8 hour drive west to Cornwall has sensibly been replaced with an 8 hour drive south these days. We leave for 2 weeks on Friday. This gets us to latitude 46N near La Rochelle....far enough south to get us into the high pressure zone with light breezes, ample sunshine and temps in the mid to high 20's.

No consistency between the big three at the moment wrt early-mid next week. FI starts pretty early at the moment I reckon.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

Yes a very good summary IMO. 

PS: La Rochelle is a nice place to go on hols. 

Agreed! FI starts at t96 IMO 

Is worth remembering that model reliability drops off this time of year due to tropical storms/ex storms causing model complications.

This often continues into the first half of Autumn.

I like the way UKMO is going this afternoon

Yes, looks good Gavin. Also encouraging to see that it's singing from the same song sheet as GFS in this regard.

Seems to be a case of GFS & UKMO against ECM for the T+144hr range in the 12z runs this evening:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

Could well be wrong here, but I'm not convinced that ECM has got a proper grip yet on how the LP early next weeks behaves. It seems to keep the LP hagning around the British Isles for an awfully long time, much more so than UKMO and GFS show.

Oh well, GFS 6z at least has a stinker lined up for Bank Holiday weekend

A crap Bank Holiday weekend.

Saint pointed this out as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP

UKMO falls into line , more heavy rainfall and below average Temos for the foreseeable

The way things are going, I am inclined not to trust anything for more than one day ahead, let along half-a-dozen or more days ahead.

Seems that ex-storm Gert has been a real headache for the models.

Well that's an optimistic way of looking at it, but we know from experience that the worst possible outcome will be the result for the UK 

That's nothing more than supposition, IMO. How anyone can have any confidence in any model output for early next week onwards right now is beyond me.

Just look at how the models have gradually lessened the strength and impact of the LP containing the remnants of Gert for this Sunday. Until a day or two ago it was looking likely that it would pass either over or just to the north if the UK during Sunday and Monday with a possible build of pressure behind it, and looked to be quite a deep low at that time as well. Now the models show it as a rather less potent system and have it still out in the atlantic come Tuesday.

GEFS12z have trended towards a more unsettled picture for the Bank Holiday weekend.

With a pleasant weekend in store, I'm looking forward to a brief dalliance with some warmth, which looks like it will peak Tuesday/ Wednesday  as something of a plume brushes the south:

This from 0z ECM:

yes, looks like the last hurrah for Summer in the south on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then it looks like we switch to Autumnal mode, though these days September can produce some serious heat as we saw last year

Summer these days is pretty much a summer month. Often one of the best months of the year weather wise - here's hoping 2017 continues the trend.

Looks like seeing a thundery trough crossing the country though late Tuesday/Wednesday with cooler more changeable weather following.

Remaining changeable in fi with close to average temps.

BH weekend continues to look atrocious. The low that's currently centred about 2,000 miles to the west of the UK influences our weather for pretty much the entire 385 hours of the GFS run, just sitting it's soggy ass right over us for about a week solid.

We're in Caernarfon and it looks like a persistent westerly so predominantly wet from when we arrive on the Saturday to when we leave on the Tuesday. Given there's cock-all to do in this country when it rains, I'm seriously not looking forward to it.

Well the far reaches of FI for the 6z are actually lovely - in fact, close to perfection for summer - so long-term unreliability in this case is not a salvation!