I see the asylum has opened its doors again. 

Looks slightly better this morning. Absolutely nothing set in stone, but at least there are a very decent spread of good runs. 

Well we briefly enjoyed some relatively troll-free times 

Meanwhile the GEFS ensemble set looks a tad better in FI  although next week continues messy

Ohhh dear. More account deletions on the way.

It has to be said that this morning's GFS op may not have been a "considerable outlier" at the day 9-plus period, but compared with the 50 or so runs on the ECM ensemble, it was very firmly at the top end of the temperature scale, as shown by the blue line:

Well, camping trip to Blakeney north Norfolk is very much on this coming week with only 2-3 mm forecast up to Friday morning :I hope this is reasonably correct!

Growing chance of a transition to warmer and more settled weather next week. Could be great timing for the Bank Holiday weekend and the usual September is summer offering.

Looking good and for once good timing.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP

Wouldn't be the first time that has happened Michael, assuming the models are proved correct about an improvement next week. In each of the last two summers the weather has improved to some degree after the schools in Scotland have started back, having been pretty naff during the kid's holiday time. A classic case of Sod's Law, IMO.

EMS for Birmingham and Loughborough.

A drying and warming trend by the looks of things for now.

GFS 06 still looking good for Bank Holiday, just hope it verifies in all runs now, and other modesl pick up.

6z just about maintains the drying and warming theme.

It seem that the unsettled weather was programmed to strike us right on cue from 18th July to mid August because it summer peak time and good timing for strong heatwaves to occur.  It all damaged now and lost chances but to avoid very long Autumnal weather this chart above would be welcomed for prolonged usable days and just warm enough to carry on wearing summer clothing, avoid heating and coats. Was in horror to see people wearing coats, hats and scarves last week in August.

12z still hanging on to a better spell, just hope it keeps verifying.  ECMWF maybe latching onto something better too?

Another very good gfs this morning and a good ecm Op for once . For the south its looking pretty good for the next 10 days . The north closer to pesky low pressures but better than the last month. Summer is back ?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

One day of rain in the next 16 if the GEFS is to be believed 

Bank holiday weekend look iffy but still far away, at least most days will be dry enough to do things outside.  So far no signs for proper heatwave as it already damaged and cannot salvage it back like before and European heat also faded away.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850aberdeen0.png 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 

Better than the last two-and-a-half months as far as my neck of thw woods is concerned.

Sadly the models have taken a turn for the worse again especially for the north. The ukmo being particularly crap this evening.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html ouch!

GFS 12z looks OK for the few days beyond next Monday, though that is a long way from being set in stone at the moment.

Monday has always looked like a poor day- the only uncertainty has been on the exact track of ex-storm Gert.

Horrific ECM , and a very similar chart to the one that started this prolonged unsettled spell a few weeks ago.

Might be an idea to wait and see what the ECM mean charts show us plus what the runs tomorrow indicate before we draw any conclusions, IMO.

FWIW, ECM seems to be handling the track of the LP containing the remnants of Gert at the start of next weeks somewhat differently to UKMO and GFS. They seem to have it as a deeper feature and show it moving away to the east quicker than ECM. Until this is sorted out, we can't be sure as to what follows on from that.