Well, it has been a fascinating period of model watching as the models have struggled to determine the extent of any ridge over southern Britain.  The trends from yesterday for fine dry and warm conditions to prevail over the bulk of England, persist.

It looks to me as if August will provide warmth and settled conditions for the majority of its remainder, helping to nudge the CET above 16, possibly.

Here is the ECM for Monday.  What is clear from watching the models closely over the past days is that ECM and GFS have both tended to overplay the influence of LP to the north.  As the days get closer to t0 the influence of HP to the south has tended to expand.  Whether this will be the case from Tuesday onward is unknown, hopefully, it will push the finer conditions north and west of the Tees-Exe line for the foreseeable.

Edit - 6z ens for the capital indicate a marked  cool down on Tuesday to end off the month as it began - on a cool unsettled note after 6 warm days in the meantime.

The UKMO is keen to ridge HP in from SW @ 120 with barely a one day interruption Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon: Breezy but fine for the S eventually.

The 18Z GFS run has a wedge of quite warm tropical maritime air across the UK for Bank Holiday Monday. If that verified and we managed to get the sun out, I think 28-29C in the south certainly couldn't be ruled out.

It would also make a change from a lot of recent August Bank Holidays. In recent years it has gained a bit of a reputation for being perhaps the worst one of the year, weatherwise. That chart would no doubt make it one of the warmest for quite some time.

00z show HP easily move in just in time once September start, we haven't seen this HP moving in easily since early summer.  BH weekend look great too.

Good to see some decent objective analysis there Bolty.

What has interested me is the rejection of the charts from 10 days ago that had people shrieking about a nightmare bank holiday.  The march northwards of the 1015mb contour has been very noticeable on a day by day basis.  The end of August could now be quite settled, the ensembles below show the cool unsettled consensus from yesterday now appears to have some alternatives.  More runs needed on the situation beyond Monday, which is looking pretty decent for many!

yes as expected as the school holidays come to a close the weather improves. very nice ecm for the south all the way from day 1 to day 10.

by day 10 it's looking hot 30c for the first day back to school?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

weather hasn't actually been to bad here for the last week or so . it really was just the heart of summer late July early August which was a write off.

I do hope to see the last 30C being reached because it nice to see some last proper heat before Autumn start.    Most cases 3 out of 4 weeks of September are usually good but hope this time to see full Sept and early Oct to be warm settled side often to compensate.  We wait for further runs to see if that much needed heat to happen.

Definite improvement in the weather recently and into the future. The period 20 July to 8 August was very wet but since then rain has fallen less frequently and there has been mostly useable and pleasant days.

Most members in the GFS ENS 06z stalling the return of the westerly jet- keeping 10C+ uppers over the SE at least until the end of the month. Certainly Tuesday is not now shown as the day the jet breaks through. It tries- but early on Wednesday it is shown dividing, the main arm once again dipping south to the west of Iberia, allowing low pressure to develop to our south, a hint of an easterly flow for a time, then the possibility of plume or thunder thereafter.

12z op continues the theme. Hot in south until Wednesday, then a thundery plume with very heavy rain sending the temperatures plummeting. Not sure what the convective potential would be this late in the summer- September th'orms are rare IMNOTW.

Summer showing signs of finishing as it started in the south. Personally I don't consider it a particularly good one because the heart was ripped out with unsettled weather.

Very emotive language there Brian.  My Simple Summer Index for 2017 will be updated and published within a week, and will aim to provide objective data based on the quality of the summer weather. Here today was the warmest day since July 21st.  The unsettled period here, when almost all the sub 20 maxes occurred, lasted from 22 July to 8 August, which is 18 days compared to about 71* very fair ones, IMBY.

*assuming the forecasted weather transpires out to 31/8

WI

Your summer index will I assume weight all days equally. For example, I would give a hot sunny day in July a higher score than one in early June or late August. 

Yes Brian.  The aim is objectivity rather than subjectivity.  I prefer June sun to July sun as it can last longer and the sun is at 62 degrees hereabouts at its zenith.  My preference for June, is however, subjective, as yours may be for July (I'm sure you have your reasons).  Indexes should IMHO, avoid subjectivity.

Absolutely spot on Brian, we had very high potential to see 36-40C temps from mid-July to early August from the way the heat in Europe was going.  We got all the perfect ingredients, very dry ground, well above temperatures daily and little rain since last year all being ripped severely out.  Why it have to be in summer to get it because all other countries would get it in Autumn or Winter.  Never heard having all the rain in the height of summer peak.  Despite the models showing very nice weekend but still I cannot go back to excitement mode anymore and now want to see any warm weather to persist just primary to reduce the duration of the worse season is Autumn time, we already got it 5 weeks in advance. 

This is going to be a bit of a shock to the system for us southerners if this 06z output rings true.

Forecast mid-afternoon temperatures for this Tuesday . . .



And 24 hours later.

12z GFS going for a settled start to September, turning warmer with time and probably nudging in to hot at times.  It's only in FI things go unsettled. Whilst the South fares better for longer, most of the UK looks like getting at least a few days of settled and fairly warm stuff.

Be interesting to see if ECM sings from the same hymn sheet.

(Should say I've not checked for shower activity or little disturbances drifting up as the temps build!)

These are really low max temps forecast for the south on Wednesday. The contrast will be poetic if they deliver.

I hope this is on the money from Arpege for rainfall accumulation out to Weds pm.  Local river is low and one arm of it has dried up.  Aquifer re-charge required urgently.  I'm also tiring of watering my hanging baskets.

Edit - 850s for Tuesday below.  Big gradient NW-SE:

Western Europe on the cool side for the next couple of weeks, bar a patch in the Balkans; the heat is well out to the east,

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

That accords better with ECM which brings lows in off the Atlantic rather than GFS0z which stands them off to the west and gives us a flow from the south. See Thu 7th Sep for a sharp contrast.

Into deep FI, ex-hurricanes are appearing in these charts which really means that all bets are off!

GFS isn't quite done with summer just yet

Oh hello summer