New thread as the old one was getting very long!

Parts of the Eastern US could have temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s Fahrenheit on Wednesday.

Yes... 80°F (27°C) on the 1st of March in parts of Virginia. 

https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/836200241477058560

A lot of vicious thunderstorms over eastern US at the moment (10.30 am), as a cold front sweeps eastwards;

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=43.8496;x=-41.6933;z=4;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;.

This came up in my Twitter feed before.

The recent thunderstorms and severe convective weather in the Midwest produced tennis ball-sized hail in parts of Kansas and Missouri. I bet that did quite a bit of damage! Truly remarkable weather phenomenon.

https://twitter.com/KCTV5/status/838932600760778752

A proper noreaster heading for NYC in a few days.

Unlike here in the UK..upgrades continue as T+0 approaches and a fall of 15-18 inches of snow is now looking likely in Central Park with significant drifting too.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

A proper noreaster heading for NYC in a few days.

Unlike here in the UK..upgrades continue as T+0 approaches and a fall of 15-18 inches of snow is now looking likely in Central Park with significant drifting too.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

 

So a question - why do the models always predict the weather in the USA and whenever there is a cold spell with snow or blizzards in the forecast it always get's upgraded and turns out true!? Yet here in the boring mundane muck weather the UK has - it always get;'s downgraded and or as most recently seen in forecast - the models flip flop?! So whilst they predict accumulations of 15 - 18" this could mean in excess of 40!?" - How come they are always upgrades and we get nothing but downgrades or even flips - Gosh! It was 17c in the sun earlier today and today we were due a northerly and an easterly next week. What ever has gone wrong with our weather and what happened to the WEATHER THAT WAS meant to be blocked and colder caused by the SW and SSW end of Jan and Feb?

So looks like NYC has escaped the worse of the snow looking at current snow depths reports:

http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-spared-projected-snow-totals-rain-sleet-move-article-1.2997486

 http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/weather-radar/349727

You can almost picture the posts on the USTWO moaning thread reading the following (from the above link)

"A change in the path of Tuesday's winter storm is sparing New Yorkers from the 16 to 20 inches predicted a day earlier by Mayor de Blasio.

The snow is instead expected to give way to a wintry mix of sleet or rain."

Can't get the radar up but basically it shows heavy rain and ice-freezing rain to the SW of NYC around staten island and Brooklyn/Manhattan and to the east and a few miles inland shows heavy snow. - So very localised.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/weather-radar/349727

 

So a question - why do the models always predict the weather in the USA and whenever there is a cold spell with snow or blizzards in the forecast it always get's upgraded and turns out true!? Yet here in the boring mundane muck weather the UK has - it always get;'s downgraded and or as most recently seen in forecast - the models flip flop?! So whilst they predict accumulations of 15 - 18" this could mean in excess of 40!?" - How come they are always upgrades and we get nothing but downgrades or even flips - Gosh! It was 17c in the sun earlier today and today we were due a northerly and an easterly next week. What ever has gone wrong with our weather and what happened to the WEATHER THAT WAS meant to be blocked and colder caused by the SW and SSW end of Jan and Feb?

The question I always have as well, but I'm led to believe as an island nation with a maritime climate, the models will never verify! I wonder which other nations struggle with models so much like ours?

The storm moved closer to the shore, that's why the totals were way down in some areas plus the incursion of warmer air which changed the snow to rain.

Central Park - had 4" of snow from the nor easter storm Stella:

http://heavy.com/news/2017/03/new-york-nyc-snowfall-snow-totals-winter-storm-stella-2017-by-town-city-weather-service-official-bronx-jefferson-laguardia-how-many-inches/

Well under the 12-24" that was expected.

So, your earlier comment about storms always being upgraded and being more significant than expected was wrong.....

The storm moved closer to the shore, that's why the totals were way down in some areas plus the incursion of warmer air which changed the snow to rain.

It's not just us snow-starved Brits that that happens to then!

 

 

It's not just us snow-starved Brits that that happens to then!

 

Of course not, and anyone who knows anything about North America's climate was fully aware of that already. 

This isn't the first bust and it won't be the last. 

Sadly three storm chasers died overnight when they collided at an intersection:

http://929nin.com/three-stormchasers-killed-in-crash-near-spur-tx/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Kelley was one of the ones I watched a fair bit and was always at any severe event, so a sad loss of lives.

Presumably this unstable area has been set in motion again by winter rains.
Looking at the aerial view the area to left (north?) is probably not stable either so could be more movement, very dangerous to start moving stuff away until everything settles.

Probably a year or more to re-open, they might need to investigate a safer route inland past this stretch.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40031704