GW- when they calculate the seasonal CET do they simply combine the 3 monthly values and divide by 3 or do they multiply each monthly by the number of days in that month and divide by 90 (or 91 this year)? It won't make much difference I'm sure but I was interested. Either way, with your estimate for January and December's figure, and needing to beat about 20.31C in total, Feb will only need to be about 5C to give us the warmest winter on record, which WAS amazing in 1869 across the 3 months.

I think they just divide by three. I always do it on a days basis for my calculations and usually get a very slightly different figure.

Met Office Hadley            4.9c.           Anomaly         1.3c.   Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        4.73c.         Anomaly         0.58c.

Netweather                     5.17c.         Anomaly         0.78c.

Definitely on for mildest winter. An ssw event in february could change things though. February could go one way or th other, a difficult cet to predict

Definitely on for mildest winter. An ssw event in february could change things though. February could go one way or th other, a difficult cet to predict

The latest Met outlook goes for an above average Feb with colder weather more likely in March, just when we don't want it.

Provisional CET for yesterday (25th) was 11.5C which looks like a date record (again this winter !) and only 0.1C shy of the January record

Met Office Hadley         5.2c.    Anomaly   1.5c.  Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.93c.  Anomaly   0.77c.

Netweather                  5.41c.  Anomaly   1.22c.      

Met Office Hadley         5.2c.    Anomaly   1.5c.  Provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.93c.  Anomaly   0.77c.

Netweather                  5.41c.  Anomaly   1.22c.      

Looks like I won't get my 5.2C; ah well. Won't be too far off.

Still need a 5C or thereabouts for Feb to crack the record.

Very do-able. Not guaranteed.

Met Office Hadley                 5.4c.           Anomaly          1.6c.    Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                             5.13c.         Anomaly           0.98c.

Netweather                          5.59c.         Anomaly           1.4c.      

Met Office Hadley            5.6c.    Anomaly   1.8c.  provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                        5.18c.  Anomaly   1.03c.

Netweather                     5.78c.  Anomaly   1.59c.             

Provisional CET for yesterday (25th) was 11.5C which looks like a date record (again this winter !) and only 0.1C shy of the January record

 

11.1C provisional CET mean yesterday (27th) so looks like 2 date records in 3 days

Provisional CET for yesterday (25th) was 11.5C which looks like a date record (again this winter !) and only 0.1C shy of the January record

 

My calculation for the 25th was 11.4C which equals the 1846 date record. So will be touch and go whether the final figure breaks the record or not. But as you say very close to an all time record for January.

For the 27th I only get a figure of 10.7C but that is still a date record (current record 10.4C 2003).

My figure of 10.4C for the 24th is only 0.2C off the date record. 

So some very mild weather in the first part of this week.

Met Office Hadley                5.6c.         Anomaly     1.8c.    Provisional   to  28th.

Metcheck                            5.33c.       Anomaly     1.8c.

Netweather                         5.81c.       Anomaly     1.62c.

Peasedown St John              5.9c.        Anomaly      0.2c.    

Hmm I feel I could be close but a no cigar situation 

We now have the final data from the Met Office for daily temperatures in December. I have summarised below all of the date records for maximum and minimum temperatures in 2015. We had 9 records in November and December alone. There were several other days in December that came very close to date records. We also managed to beat the long standing date record for Christmas Day.

Here are the maximum date records for January. We have broken two of them this month.

This means there is now only one day in January where we have never recorded 15C - the 8th where the record is 14.9C.

Here is the winter CET tracker. I have added in for comparison 2013/14 (a recent very mild, wet and stormy winter) and 1868/69 (the mildest winter on record).

You can see that we are currently on track for the warmest winter ever. But we still need a relatively mild February to achieve this.

In order to beat 2968/69 the CET needs to average 5.2C for the rest of the winter.

Met Office Hadley               5.7c.           Anomaly          1.9c.    Provisional    to  29th.

Metcheck                           5.43c.         Anomaly           1.28c.

Netweather                        5.98c.         Anomaly           1.79c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather      6.1c.           Anomaly           2.2c.

Clevedon    Weather          7.4c.           Anomaly            1.0c.

Mount Sorrel                      5.6c.           Anomaly            1.4c.

Peasedown St John             6.0c.           Anomaly            0.3c.

My Annual     6.0c.   Difference   0.3c  NOAA  Monthly...  

To beat the seasonal record of 6.77 we need a sum of the 3 means to be 20.32. Assuming Jan finishes on, say, 5.7 that's 15.4; we need a Feb CET of 4.92 - although with Feb having fewer days the actual mean per day (not an official measurement I know) would require slightly less. 4.92 might still not be reached.

To beat the seasonal record of 6.77 we need a sum of the 3 means to be 20.32. Assuming Jan finishes on, say, 5.7 that's 15.4; we need a Feb CET of 4.92 - although with Feb having fewer days the actual mean per day (not an official measurement I know) would require slightly less. 4.92 might still not be reached.

I did wonder about that - but February only needs to be a repeat of what we had this January which I wouldn't thought was too hard to get.

But February can throw up some surprises.

Nearly the same as yesterday.

Met  Office Hadley          5.7c.           Anomaly         1.9c.   Provisional to  3oth.

Metcheck                       5.39c.         Anomaly         1.24c.

Netweather                    5.98c.         Anomaly          1.79c.