theweatheroutlook

Stormchaser
09 January 2016 17:31:08

With all the calamity in the NWP model output, the final CET for Jan '16 must now be about as unpredictable as it gets.


Good luck everyone... 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
09 January 2016 18:51:02
Unlikely it'll end up sub-zero anyway. For that to happen the next 22 days would need to average around -2C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
ARTzeman
10 January 2016 11:09:28

Met Office Hadley            6.2c.        Anomaly       2.6c.     Provisional   to9th.


Metcheck                        6.09c.       Anomaly        1.94c.


Netweather                     6.86c.       Anomaly        2.67c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
11 January 2016 11:24:35

  Met  Office  Hadley             6.1c.         Anomaly       2.6c.


  Metcheck                           5.90c.       Anomaly       1.75c.


  Netweather                        6.71c.       Anomaly       2.52c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather        6.5c.         Anomaly       1.6c.


Clevedon Weather                7.9c.          Anomaly       1.3c.


  Mount  Sorrel                     5.9c.          Anomaly        1.7c.


Peasedown  St  John             6.9c.          Anomaly        1.2c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
11 January 2016 11:48:07

Based on recent model output, and without computing any data (short on time at the mo), seems to me we should be able to knock close to 1.5*C off the CET by the end of the weekend.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Saint Snow
11 January 2016 12:09:46

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Based on recent model output, and without computing any data (short on time at the mo), seems to me we should be able to knock close to 1.5*C off the CET by the end of the weekend.



 


So, going of Art's update yesterday, that'd take it down to 4.6c


Did anyone go for 4.6c....?


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
11 January 2016 12:56:52

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


So, going of Art's update yesterday, that'd take it down to 4.6c


Did anyone go for 4.6c....?


 



[           Saint Snow


             Caz


             Essan           All on 4.60c.  


        





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
11 January 2016 18:56:33

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


So, going of Art's update yesterday, that'd take it down to 4.6c


Did anyone go for 4.6c....?


 




That's the weekend. But for the month, The Merthyr Tydfil Magi Model adds another 0.7C on.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
ARTzeman
12 January 2016 11:10:49

Met  Office  Hadley               6.0c.         Anomaly         2.4c.       Provisional  to  11th.


Metcheck                             5.77c.       Anomaly          1.61c.


Netweather                          6.52c.       Anomaly          2.33c.     





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
12 January 2016 11:21:07

Fair to say recent ECM det. runs in the 8-10 day range would upset things a bit... CET returns of more than 10*C!


A long way from set in stone of course. I could handle it if we had some decent cold cold conditions either side of it 

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
13 January 2016 11:22:54

Met  Office Hadley                 5.9c.           Anomaly       2.3c.     Provisional to 12th.


 Metcheck                             5.63c.          Anomaly        1.48c.


Netweather                           6.42c.          Anomaly        2.23c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather         6.2c.            Anomaly       1.3c.


Clevedon  Weather                7.7c.            Anomaly        1.3c.


Mount  Sorrel                        5.7c.            Anomaly        1.5c.


Peasedown St John                6.6.             Anomaly         0.9c.   





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
14 January 2016 11:33:28

Met Office Hadley             5.7c.          Anomaly         2.2c.     Provisional to 13th


Metcheck                          5.45c.       Anomaly           1.30c.


Netweather                       6.24c.       Anomaly           2.05c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
14 January 2016 19:58:00

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


Met Office Hadley             5.7c.          Anomaly         2.2c.     Provisional to 13th


Metcheck                          5.45c.       Anomaly           1.30c.


Netweather                       6.24c.       Anomaly           2.05c. 



I have a jolly good feeling about this.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
14 January 2016 20:07:58

4.3C here, that's about (+0.9C)

North York Moors weather 
ARTzeman
15 January 2016 12:05:30

Met  Office  Hadley              5.5c.           Anomaly      2.2c.   Provisional to   14th.


Metcheck                            5.20c.          Anomaly       1.04c.


Netweather                         5.99c.          Anomaly       1.8c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather       5.8c.            Anomaly       0.9c.


Clevedon Weather               7.3c             Anomaly       0.9c.


Mount   Sorrel                     5.3c.            Anomaly       1.1c.


Peasedown St  John             6.1c.            Anomaly       0.4c.


 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
16 January 2016 11:36:56

Met  office  Hadley            5.4c.          Anomaly        1.8c.    Provisional  to  15th.


Metcheck                         4.95c.         Anomaly          0.80c.


Netweather                      5.73c.         Anomaly          1.53c. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2016 14:40:04

3.9C (+0.7) now.
Since there's only two weeks records so far to affect, it is dropping quite fast.

North York Moors weather 
Rob K
17 January 2016 08:22:46
Only 48 hours ago the forecast was for severe frosts in the CET area last night. In the event most places ended up with temps above zero, so the CET will be holding up better than expected.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ARTzeman
17 January 2016 11:11:19

Expect CET to rise over the coming week. 





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
17 January 2016 12:12:04

Met Office Hadley                 5.1c.         Anomaly        1.6c.     Provisional to 16th.


Metcheck                             4.71c.       Anomaly        0.56c.


Netweather                          5.45c.       Anomaly        1.26c.


Cheadle Hulme Weather        5.2c          Anomaly        0.3c.


Clevedon Weather                7.0c.         Anomaly        0.6c.


Mount  Sorrel                       4.9c.         Anomaly        0.7c.


Peasedown St John               5.6c.         Anomaly       -0.1c.      





Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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