With so much uncertainty in the models even 4/5 days away (and potential big differences in the resulting temps for the two main synoptic options), it really is a 'stick a pin in' time.
The optimist in me is tempted to go with a sub-average prediction, but the miserable realist is having none of it . I don't think it will be anything like as mild as December (no sh*t!), and I don't want to go too high in case we do get a decent colder spell at some point. So I'll go for a distinctly average..
4.6c
My normal method (NOAA upstream analogues) would have me going quite a bit below too but I'm still smarting from the awful decision to change the figure for February in this year's competition.
Looking at uncertainty in the models seems to be a regular month end feature - the light at the end of the tunnel suddenly becomes visible when competition deadline has just passed.
Wishing you all a happy and healthy 2016.
4.3C