4.0C please

6.1C please 

I'll go for 4.74C

Happy New Year

I'll go for 5.5C please ☺

Out of interest, what is the biggest monthly CET swing on record? If Jan were to come in below average (long shot, admittedly), then there'd be a huge downwards swing from Dec. 

Given the huge model back-away today from a cold scenario, the above is purely academic - but I would still love one of our great stattos to come up with the answer.

3.3C

I'll go for 4.84, please.

Thanks GW

David, Northallerton

5.7 please

Just a random guess.

Happy New Year!

How nice it is to see new members joining in this competition and 2 first time posters as well.  Credit to GW of course! 

I wonder how participation numbers of this comp has grown over the years.  Sorry GW, that means more work for you but if you do get time it would be interesting to see.  Of course, the more participants we get, the more work there is for you and as much as I'd like to offer my help, I couldn't do anywhere near as good a job as you.  

Grovel over! 

All the best for the coming year to you all and may the new year bring a bit of seasonal weather.

What a great idea..thanks GW.

I'll go for a Jan CET of 4.38C

If possible, I'd like to undercut zubzero and go for 2.85C

Very late with this.

Think I'll say 6.6 

Thanks.

 

 

Given the huge model back-away today from a cold scenario, the above is purely academic - but I would still love one of our great stattos to come up with the answer.

 

 

A quick scan through the data suggests there are 4 occasions where the swing from one month to the next has been 8C or more. All of these are pre 1900. They are:

1740 - September to October 8.7C (14.0C to 5.3C)

1807 - October to November 8.5C (11.4C to 2.9C)

1895 - September to October 8.3C (15.4C to 7.1C)

1684 - October to November 8.0C (11.0C to 3.0C)

So we would need to have an extremely cold January to beat any of these. Most unlikely.

How nice it is to see new members joining in this competition and 2 first time posters as well.  Credit to GW of course! 

I wonder how participation numbers of this comp has grown over the years.  Sorry GW, that means more work for you but if you do get time it would be interesting to see.  Of course, the more participants we get, the more work there is for you and as much as I'd like to offer my help, I couldn't do anywhere near as good a job as you.  

Grovel over! 

All the best for the coming year to you all and may the new year bring a bit of seasonal weather.

Actually the number of participants has been fairly static over the past few years. I introduced a rule change in 2013 to allow up to 2 missed predictions. Without that the numbers would have dropped off a bit. As it is they have stabilised at just over 50 in the last couple of years. The figures below represent those remaining in the competition at the end of the year. Obviously the numbers are much higher at the start of the year but fall away a bit as people who tend to only post in the winter miss predictions later in the year.

2009: 13

2010: 25

2011: 43

2012: 51

2013: 57 (rule change came in)

2014: 53

2015: 53

Always good to have new people taking part in the competition. Still time to join in for January and even if you miss this month you can still join next month given the current rules allow up to two missed predictions.

4.9 please!!

Some Figures to be getting on with ...

Met  Office Hadley               4.2c.        Anomaly        0.6c.     Provisional to 1st. .....

Metcheck                            5.42c.       Anomaly         1.26c.

Netweather                         5.01c.       Anomaly         0.82c.

Cheadle Hulme Weather       4.4c.         Anomaly        -0.5c.

Clevedon Weather                8.2c.         Anomaly         1.8c.

Mount Sorrel                        4.8c.         Anomaly         0.6c.

Peasedown St John               5.8c.         Anomaly         0.1c.       

Actually the number of participants has been fairly static over the past few years. I introduced a rule change in 2013 to allow up to 2 missed predictions. Without that the numbers would have dropped off a bit. As it is they have stabilised at just over 50 in the last couple of years. The figures below represent those remaining in the competition at the end of the year. Obviously the numbers are much higher at the start of the year but fall away a bit as people who tend to only post in the winter miss predictions later in the year.

2009: 13

2010: 25

2011: 43

2012: 51

2013: 57 (rule change came in)

2014: 53

2015: 53

Always good to have new people taking part in the competition. Still time to join in for January and even if you miss this month you can still join next month given the current rules allow up to two missed predictions.

I'm surprised but as you say, not all those who begin stay to the finish.  Nevertheless, having over 50 finishers is pretty impressive and shows how popular the CET competition is.  I have to smile at the thought of us pulling our hair out in the 2010/11 winter. 

HT, I've just posted this on the December thread but it's perhaps best requested here.

Would it be possible to have an archive of the CET competitions? 

I'd find it useful to look back on these threads as I often wonder how previous months performed, especially the ones that throw up record breakers like December did and I'd also like to see how I performed in previous months.  Apart from that, some of our members take the time and effort to post some very useful stats. 

So it would be nice if we could keep them all because it's a shame when these threads drop off the radar and disappear for ever and I'm sure other members would agree.

Thanks in advance and anticipation!