Interestingly, I see that, based on the provisional CET figures, 6th October was 16.3°C, making it the warmest day since 26th August!

I reckon that's probably due to the high night time temps.  We've had some relatively mild nights and the air hasn't really cooled off much.

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Interestingly, I see that, based on the provisional CET figures, 6th October was 16.3°C, making it the warmest day since 26th August!

My calculations get to 15.8C but that still makes it warmer than any day in September.

Mostly down to the high minimum CET of 13.2C as Caz rightly suggests. That is the joint 5th highest minimum CET for 6th October on record:

6th Oct 1990 13.8C
6th Oct 1921 13.4C
6th Oct 1916 13.4C
6th Oct 1941 13.4C
6th Oct 1920 13.2C
6th Oct 2015 13.2C

Nowhere near the all time highest October minimum CET of 15.2C set in 2005.

The minimum CET has regularly been 3-4C below average this month notwithstanding the exceptionally high figure recorded on the 6th. Here are the coldest minimums this month and the anomaly in brackets:

9th  4.2C (-4.6C)
2nd 4.5C (-3.9C)
8th  4.7C (-3.2C)
4th  4.8C (-3.6C)
3rd  4.8C (-3.4C)

Met Office Hadley                12.2c       Anomaly      0.1c.   provisional to 9th.

Metcheck                            11.71c.    Anomaly      1.21c.

Netweather                         12.44c.    Anomaly      2.04c.

Clevedon Weather               12.9c.      Anomaly      -0.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                      11.7c.      Anomaly      1.3c.

My     Mean                         12.4c.      Anomaly     -0.1c.  

     

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10.0C here so far, which is +0.1

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Met Office Hadley            12.1c.        Anomaly       -0.0c.   Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                        11.68c.      Anomaly        1.17c.

Netweather                     12.32c.      Anomaly        1.93c.

Clevedon Weather            12.9c.       Anomaly       -0.8c.

Mount  Sorrel                   11.7c.       Anomaly        1.3c.

My   Mean                        12.2c.       Anomaly       -0.3c.

 

My Annual   11.3c.   Difference 5.6c.

          

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Met Office Hadley             12.1c.        Anomaly       0.1c.   Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                         11.45c.      Anomaly       0.94c.

Netweather                      12.24c.      Anomaly       1.85c.

Clevedon Weather             12.8c.       Anomaly        0.9c.

Mount     Sorrel                  11.5c.      Anomaly       1.1c.

My    Mean                         12.2c.      Anomaly      -0.3c.               

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That CET is going to slide big-time over the coming week or so... I'm glad to be near the bottom of the pack for this month.

Had I followed the model guidance I would have aimed higher. The final GFS op runs of the month had the CET at close to 13.5*C up to the 11th! 

So following my instincts seems to be working out rather well so far. Funny how that works.

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We may have chose the right one....

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That CET is going to slide big-time over the coming week or so... I'm glad to be near the bottom of the pack for this month.

Had I followed the model guidance I would have aimed higher. The final GFS op runs of the month had the CET at close to 13.5*C up to the 11th! 

So following my instincts seems to be working out rather well so far. Funny how that works.

There you go then your gut is certainly proving to work better than the models.  Glad I followed my gut and went low too. 

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There you go then your gut is certainly proving to work better than the models.  Glad I followed my gut and went low too. 

I went low as well - Hope it was low enough with 10.2C.

Some went even lower than that.

 

 

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I went low as well - Hope it was low enough with 10.2C.

Some went even lower than that.

Yes, I noticed I'm in good company at the cooler end of the table but I went a little higher with 10.3c and I'm now wondering if it was low enough.  Still, we are a third of the way into the month with a couple of degrees to play with, so I'll remain forever the optimist! 

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Lowest CET return since 14 May today at 8.7C.

Staying cool for the foreseeable future although significant cloud amounts may help to keep the minimum temperatures a little higher than they have been of late. Maximums will be disappointing. If the skies do clear at night then the CET will really crash.

Currently my CET estimate stands at 11.48C. Currently expecting it to fall about 1C in the next 2 weeks to 10.42C by the 27th. As things currently stand the CET looks like finishing somewhere close to 10C. Plenty of time for this to change though.

A 10C finish would mean the first two months of this Autumn are just colder than 2012. It would be the coldest first two months of Autumn since 1993.

Met Office Hadley          11.8c.        Anomaly        -0.1c.         Provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                         11.26c.       Anomaly          0.75c.

Netweather                      11.98c.       Anomaly          1.59c.

Clevedon Weather            12.7c.         Anomaly          -1.0c.

Mount    Sorrel                 11.3c.         Anomaly           0.9c.

My    Mean                       11.9c.         Anomaly          -0.6c.

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Met Office Hadley           11.6c.      Anomaly       -0.2c.     Provisional   t0 13th.

Metcheck                       11.8c.       Anomaly         0.57c.

Netweather                    11.77c.     Anomaly         1.38c.

Clevedon Weather           12.5c.      Anomaly         -1.2c.

Mount   Sorrel                 11.1c.      Anomaly          0.7c.

My     Mean                     11.6c.      Anomaly         -0.9c.

 

My Annual    11.2c.   Difference 5.5c.  

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I'll be amazed if we aren't well below average again.
9.3C (-0.6) here so far.

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Met Office  Hadley          11.4c.       Anomaly      -0.3c.   Provisional   to  14th.

Metcheck                       10.96c.     Anomaly       0.45c.

Netweather                    11.55c.     Anomaly       1.16c.

Clevedon Weather           12.4c.      Anomaly        1.3c.

Mount Sorrel                   11.0c.      Anomaly        0.6c.

My Mean                         11.4c.      Anomaly        -1.1c.

 

       

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It's falling steadily now. Although if our local weather is anything to go by, the night time minima are being kept up by cloud cover, otherwise it would be falling too quickly for my liking.

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Met Office Hadley          11.2c.          Anomaly        -0.4c.      Provisional 15th.

Metcheck                      10.94c.         Anomaly          0.4c..      Now Reading

Netweather                   11.45c.         Anomaly          1.06c.     Now Reading

Clevedon Weather         12.4c.          Anomaly         -1.3c        Provisional

Mount    Sorrel               11.0c.          Anomaly          0.6c.       Now Reading

My    Mean                     11.2c.          Anomaly         -1.3c.      Provisional 

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The CET is now down to just 10.85C by my calculations.

However, from here on in to the end of the month it looks like temperatures will be a little above average generally. This is largely down to milder nights. So the CET may only drift down to 10.67C by the end of the month, i.e. little change from where it is currently at. If we do see more in the way of clear skies then obviously that number could come down somewhat.

Looking at analogue years the CET continues to track 1957 very closely and has done since around April. We are also tracking 1987 quite closely as well since around April. Both were fairly strong El Nino years, the Nino peaking later in the 1957/8 event than it did in 1987/8. Both were positive QBO winters as well. So a good match for this year. Sun spots were high in 1957 whereas in 1987 they were similar to the current position. However, 1957 saw the colder winter.