I can live with a 0.4*C error, two decent months in a row now but will be too little, far too late 

As always, thanks for all the stats compilation and presentation, GW 

Thank you for the stats GW...

I can live with a 0.4*C error, two decent months in a row now but will be too little, far too late 

As always, thanks for all the stats compilation and presentation, GW 

I tanked

Well we have all the final figures for September except the minimum CET for the 25th which is preventing Hadley from publishing a final overall mean figure. Nevertheless I can give you a figure that is virtually the final number by using the provisional reading for the minimum on the 25th combined with the final figures for all other dates.

The provisional CET mean finished at 12.94C. As expected the final figure is much lower after adjustments but not as low as I was thinking it might be.

The final CET comes in at 12.66C. It is possible this might move by 1/100th of a degree in either direction once the minimum for the 25th is confirmed but no more than that. This makes September 2015 the coldest since 1993 when the CET was 12.4C. September 1994 had a CET of 12.75C so 2015 is slightly cooler.

The minimum CET is 1.60C below the 1971-2000 mean and is the coldest since 1986 (incidentally 1986 is the coldest figure in the whole series since 1878). The September 2015 minimum is the equal 10th coldest in the series. 

One other stat for you. Nowhere in the whole UK saw 25C in September. Incredibly the warmest day was the last day of the month when Braemar in the Highlands recorded 24.0C. Highest temperature in England was at Writtle on the 12th with 23.0C.

Braemar also recorded the lowest minimum of the month with -1.3C on the 30th giving a massive diurnal range of 25.3C. An air frost was recorded somewhere in the UK on 5 days in September.

springsunshine wins the competition this month with the closest prediction (12.70C) to the final figure. Congratulations

 

Thanks GW!

How interesting that the last time we had September CET's in the 12'c was when the Atlantic was cold and now the Atlantic is cold again we're in the 12's again.

I think the Atlantic will warm from here over next five years but when we get to the 2020's we should definitively go into the cold AMO so these chilly Septembers might become the norm?

The cool September has knocked the rolling 12month CET back below 10C (9.94) for the first time since Jan 2014

 I was almost a full degree off! 

 I was almost a full degree off! 

I was 2 degrees out ! I'm heading for a bottom place position for sure. 

Some interesting charts for this month from the Met Office

Maximum temperatures below average across England, Wales and Northern Ireland but above average for much of Scotland

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/9/2015_9_MaxTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

Minimum temperatures well below average for England and Wales

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/9/2015_9_MinTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

Similar picture for grass minimums except in Cardiff where someone clearly left the grass thermometer too close to a barbecue!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/9/2015_9_GrassMin_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

No surprise to see sunshine totals well above average in most places and rainfall below or well below average except in the far south-east. Western Scotland was clearly the place to be in September.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/9/2015_9_Sunshine_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/9/2015_9_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

The cool September has knocked the rolling 12month CET back below 10C (9.94) for the first time since Jan 2014

Yes indeed. First time we have been below 10C since Jan 2014. Also now below the 1981-2010 mean of 9.97C.

^^^^^

The drop from 2006's high point to 2010 is pretty shocking!  

Annual CET competition - September update

Here are the latest competition tables. lanky has now built up a substantial lead with a cumulative error of just 0.65C in the past 3 months.

It is very tight for 2nd, 3rd and 4th with just 0.04C separating these places. John S2 is the biggest climber in the top 10 this month rising to 4th place. Caz just clings on to 5th place ahead of Taylor1740.

Plenty of big climbers further down the table. Still time for anyone in the top 30 to make it into the top 10 before the end of the year.

AP Snowman looks odds on for the wooden spoon but even this could change as moomin75 and Gusty are both struggling to pull clear.

Don't forget that for November and December predictions will be made via PM to me rather than posted in this thread in order to minimise tactical predicting as we move into the business end of the year.

Thanks GW!

Nice to see that I'm moving the right way for once.

At the top of the board, going to be an exciting finish. Good luck to all.

Thanks GW, a bit of a disaster for me in September which could carry on in October as well.

Thanks again for running this comp, GW. I thought I'd have sunk further than I did. Just need a scorchio October and I'm back in it

Thanks GW for doing these charts. All downloaded and put in folder.

Thanks GW and well done to Lanky - seriously impressive form there!

Thanks GW and well done to Lanky - seriously impressive form there!

Thanks for the comp GW and thanks for those few kind words Twister

Still riding my 15 minutes of fame and my luck

I have to remember that I have been over 2C out in a single month before now so I don't think the fat lady is singing yet

Thanks GW - a great fun comp

GW, many thanks for all the work you put into this competition.  I really do enjoy it wherever I am on the table, though I'm enjoying a good position this year and I'm really amazed I've clung onto my position, albeit by the skin of my teeth. 

Well done Lanky!  Hang on in there!  Well done to all who take part, wherever you are on the table.