July has been a somewhat disappointing month another a promising start. We will end up well below average despite the 1st of July being nearly 10C above average. Southern areas have faired reasonably well until the last few days whereas further north July has been a bit of a shocker. Will August see an improvement or will the north / south divide continue?
Please post your August CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Friday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 August (Sunday).
August historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
We have not seen an August reach 17C since 2004. 2013 was close with 16.9C. Four recent years have been sub 15.5C including last year which was just 14.9C (coldest since 1993). The last really warm August was 2003 with 18.3C. The average August CET for the last 10 years is just 16.0C.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.2C
1981-2010: 16.4C
1995-2014: 16.6C
Here is a chart of the August CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Current model output
The current model output suggests the whole of the first part of August could be fairly close to average overall. Contingency planners forecast is very interesting though and I would agree entirely with what is said.
GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
Looking fairly average as far as 850's are concerned.
Met Office Contingency planners forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/1/A3_plots-temp-ASO.PDF
Suggests either average or slightly below average temperatures. High pressure is expected to be close to the UK for much of the month but likely positioned to the west of the UK much of the time dragging in cooler NW winds. Added to this the SST's in the Atlantic are very cold at the moment so below average temperatures seem likely. This could of course flip considerably if the high were to move further east. The probability of this happening looks rather low.
ECM - De Bilt
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
Also looks very average apart from perhaps a warmer day on Monday
Pattern matching (just for fun)
I don't have much time available this month. But a quick look at years since 1950 with a similar June / July temperature pattern to this year (and also in some cases similar May temperatures as well) shows the following:
5 years with an August CET within 0.5C of the 1971-2000 mean (1958, 1967, 1969, 1996, 2012)
2 years with a very cold August CET (similar to 2014) being 1979 and 1951
Both of the latter 2 years had a weak El Nino event developing (somewhat weaker than we have at present). 1958 and 1969 were also weak El Nino years.
I am also tracking 2009 which is fairly similar to this year and saw a moderate El Nino. August 2009 was very slightly above average at 16.6C.
So the historic evidence points to either an average or cool August. Nothing to indicate we might see a very warm month. Sadly I tend to agree. I am expecting a rather cool August which could rival last year's figure. More likely something in the low 15's.
August CET tracker
Here are the current prediction charts for the first part of August. Looking rather chilly I'm afraid. Well below the seasonal average. The north / south split looks set to continue as shown by the chart. Temperatures for Pershore and Rothamsted are a little below average but not too bad. Stonyhurst looks very chilly.
Edited by moderator
29 July 2015 09:18:37
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Reason: Not specified