SAI??

Siberian Arctic Index???
Stratospheric Arrogance Incidence????
Slow Autumnal Interest????

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I did notice that the first snow has settled over siberia roughly a week ago and a bit in alaska as well by the look of it, hope springs eternal!!

Yes it's still there as of yesterday.

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

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Surely this Winter can't be as bad as last Winter for the UK, even the Med froze and Saudi Arabia got buried 

 

 

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I did notice that the first snow has settled over siberia roughly a week ago and a bit in alaska as well by the look of it, hope springs eternal!!

Aye, there has been snow in Alaska

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/barrow-alaska-snow-blizzard-warning-20140903

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Love the map Medlock! 

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SAI??

Siberian Arctic Index???
Stratospheric Arrogance Incidence????
Slow Autumnal Interest????

Summer again imminently.

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SAI?? Siberian Arctic Index??? Stratospheric Arrogance Incidence???? Slow Autumnal Interest????

Summer again imminently.

Siberian Autumn Incoming

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Thank you, cc.

AO?

Atlantic Oscillation?
Arctic Oscillation?
Abbreviatory Obfuscation?

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Thanks. I look forward to updates on whether high pressure does show up over the Arctic if October snow cover rapidly increases over the appropriate area of Siberia.

This worries me about the theory though:
"Their findings show the best correlation between the SAI and winter AO is the SAI during October although they do
admit to not being a hundred percent sure why this is."

I'm always suspicious of theories based on arbitrary correlations rather than on a physical mechanism for which researchers have looked for a correlation as evidence. Why October snow cover and not November? With so few years of comprehensive data it's tempting to look for spurious connections.

But, as I said, thanks for bring it to our attention. I'm still interested. Every year gives us a few more ideas to work with, so let's see whether this might be another.

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I find Yakutsk in Russia an interesting place to watch the progression of Autumn into Winter - although this place seems to bypass Autumn and goes straight into Winter!. Whilst right now it's not particularly cold, by the end of September they start to struggle in the low single digits as max temps and by October they get plunged well below freezing as max temps and it pretty much stays that way until late April.

http://askyakutia.com/2009/01/how-do-the-people-of-yakutsk-survive-in-winter/

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/winter-coldest-region-northern-hemisphere-article-1.1269002

http://www.independent.co.uk/travel/europe/yakutsk-journey-to-the-coldest-city-on-earth-771503.html

 

 

 

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My predictions for this winter

1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years


2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen


3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...


4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p

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My predictions for this winter

1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years


2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen


3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...


4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p

If I posted that I'd be told it was poor form 😂

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mSeaInd4.gif

 

Not a huge amount to go on....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euPrecSeaInd5.gif

 

but with precipitation charts it suggests northern blocking.....

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My predictions for this winter

1. The Faily Express predicting an Ice Age and the worst winter for 1500 years


2. Thousands of complex posts on Statrospheric Winter Warmings no-one understands but nevertheless will use to convince themselves point 1 will happen


3. Cold and snowy GFS 12z runs at T+ 240 cause 10 MO pages a minute each of which contians the words'more runs needed' followed by...


4. Shortwaves ruining said cold spell at T+48 leading to mass bickering and hysteria and winter is over and im not doing this again posts

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

I predict that if a Scandi high is threatening, Steve Murr will go into overdrive. The 168hr ECM will come out, he will say 192hr will be epic and when 192hr comes out, it isn't. Amazing the number of times he jumps the gun. It is that or he puts the mockers on it.

Steve Murr law. The greater his certainty, the greater the model's uncertainty becomes.

:p

Very funny but so true.

if you want to find steve murr this winter  try netweather, thats where he seems to post mostly during winter time,

I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.

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I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.

 

I find that with age, time just passes quicker and quicker, so every bloody season soon comes round!

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I notice when the nights become longer than the days (from 26th September) Winter soon comes round.

 

I find that with age, time just passes quicker and quicker, so every bloody season soon comes round!

True, this year is going so fast. Hoping for a decent mild Autumn with plenty of sunshine as we are enjoying currently, then Winter can give us a nice cold blast to clear the air ready for an early Spring :)

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Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!

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Well I hope we get snow over Christmas, nothing quite like it. Better than the disgustingly mild Xmas day 2011 which got up to 12C here! .........had the family over and the ones who smoke had the back door open and it didn't even feel cold with the balmy south/sw wind. Not right for the time of year lol!

Not 'right' yes, but actually more likely than the Victorian Christmas card scene.

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