it may have escaped some of you but the stratosphere is above the troposphere. they are one dynamic. there may be occasions when events in the upper parts of the strat are completely unrelated to events in the trop (and vica versa given time lags) because of strong mid level vortices not allowing wave energy to make it all the way to the top/bottom. to dismiss the state of the strat and events within it?  you may as well be using seaweed!

i doubt the world meteorological agencies would have spent hundreds of millions of dollars developing better stratospheric modelling if it were just a 'fad'. of course, the modelling could all be wrong because the world might be square and flat  

December successfully negotiated without too much cold, apart from the last couple of days. The forum has wrote of January already......

By the time the parameters for cold get in place the sun will be warming the sky enough to not matter. Result then 

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December successfully negotiated without too much cold, apart from the last couple of days. The forum has wrote of January already......

By the time the parameters for cold get in place the sun will be warming the sky enough to not matter. Result then 

Aye! 2/3 of winter to go then bring on spring!

Looking at CFS LR for around the 20/1/15 looks nippy but a very long way off!

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It's that interesting stage now where the Long Range Forecasts are really tested.
 
When released the models give a fair idea for the first couple of weeks, I.e a wind event, some frosts, cold and snow and most forecasters went with that plus had the me to outlook as a guide too..... Now even that doesn't always go to plan & things often change..

Now let's see how things go from here :)

 

Shall we have a friendly wager on who puts up a Spring Forecast first and then also commits to set dates for such events too :D

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It's that interesting stage now where the Long Range Forecasts are really tested.
 
When released the models give a fair idea for the first couple of weeks, I.e a wind event, some frosts, cold and snow and most forecasters went with that plus had the me to outlook as a guide too..... Now even that doesn't always go to plan & things often change..

Now let's see how things go from here :)

 

Shall we have a friendly wager on who puts up a Spring Forecast first and then also commits to set dates for such events too :D

I disagree with this. A number of the lrfs went for a colder than average December and a few dramatically so. In other words they are already wide of the mark despite having the numerics and MetO guidance. 

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So how are we doing?

According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-

Very mild start.   December may well be snow and frost free in most parts.    Ski resorts worried.   Year ends warmest on record.

However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.

Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.

(issued 13th August)

Well, December has proven colder than expected - certainly not frost free! - though it has been snow free in many parts and will end up milder than average.  And it will be the warmest year on record, as predicted    I am NOT claiming success though.

We now wait to see if we get the cold spell in a few weeks time .....

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I disagree with this. A number of the lrfs went for a colder than average December and a few dramatically so. In other words they are already wide of the mark despite having the numerics and MetO guidance. 

This is where your come into your own then Brian and the cream will rise to the top, I obviously read and take note of the wrong people lol 

Have to say I take them with a pinch of salt but do find them interesting 

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Personally I think it is 'too early' for a cold Uk winter. I love cold and snow so it saddens me to say it but my gut feeling is that this winter won't be all that great in terms of wintry stuff. Maybe a 1 week long 'proper cold spell', but not much more this winter.

I say 'too early' because I think that we will have a much better chance of cold & snow as we reach the end of the current solar cycle.

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I wonder whether people felt the same in 1939-40, 1981-2 and 1990-1? They all occurred just after the peak of a solar cycle.

1947 was just three months before the peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles 

I do know what you mean though. There's a fair list of "Hale" winters to choose from too. Just thought I'd throw those examples out there.

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Hi there fellow somersetian.

Interesting, I hadn't realised those winters were just after a peak. I remember reading that high solar activity can cause SSWs somewhere sometime on this forum, and therefore cold weather (potentially of course). Not sure if that is correct, but if it is then it just goes to show how unbelievably complex our weather is.

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Well Mr Fergusson still says that there is a chance of a pattern change but not till towards the end of January. Before then he says we have some stormy weather to put up with, suppose it's more interesting than a boring bartlett slug.

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Out of curiosity, could someone answer me a little ponderance that popped into my head:

There is talk that good snow cover over Siberia & Scandinavia encourages the formation of high pressure there, connected to the cold airmass above being more stable (have I got this right?)

If that's the case, when then does the theory not work equally across Eastern Canada & Greenland?

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Well Mr Fergusson still says that there is a chance of a pattern change but not till towards the end of January. Before then he says we have some stormy weather to put up with, suppose it's more interesting than a boring bartlett slug.

Well there's always a chance of pattern change. You can say that any day of the year and it's accurate. 

In the meantime it looks rather tedious, albeit at least it's not cold. I do realise I leave myself open here to Gooner posting a line of numbers and telling me it's not beach weather like it usually is in January 

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Happy New Year  to all TWOers!

Ive done a bit of "karten arkive" trawling and the early 1970s winters bear some resemblance to this year, but as so much has changed in the intervening 40 years I'm less well disposed to pattern matching than I once was.

Looking at things another way, there are about 13 weeks between the solstice and the spring equinox.  We are 1 and a half weeks through that 13 week period.  There remain about 11 and a half weeks of winter weather opportunity for severe conditions (March 2013 was a wake up call for many as to just what March can deliver in this respect).

The next 2 weeks are a zonal write off to my eyes, that then leaves us 9 and a half weeks til the equinox.  My view remains that February this year will offer the best opportunity for some widespread lowland snow. Edit - I'm starting see 1983 as a best fit analogue FWIW.

Its going to be another fascinating period of model watching, Im hopeful that a close by Azores high or even Bartlett High over the next couple of weeks can spare me the same battering from gales that I had last winter, as it is looking potentially quite violent, 8-11 January on all the models looks nasty.

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So with near record global temps (due to hot oceans) and DMI80N showing low Arctic temps would that hint at more energy in the weather machine as it fights to even things out?

Until the Arctic is ice free over winter ( and shrouded in fog keeping it warm over the sunless months) a warming planet must surely spawn energetic weather as the difference, pole to equator, increases?

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Well there's always a chance of pattern change. You can say that any day of the year and it's accurate. 

In the meantime it looks rather tedious, albeit at least it's not cold. I do realise I leave myself open here to Gooner posting a line of numbers and telling me it's not beach weather like it usually is in January 

I will save you from that Matthew

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So with near record global temps (due to hot oceans) and DMI80N showing low Arctic temps would that hint at more energy in the weather machine as it fights to even things out?

Until the Arctic is ice free over winter ( and shrouded in fog keeping it warm over the sunless months) a warming planet must surely spawn energetic weather as the difference, pole to equator, increases?

 

You're probably more of an expert than I am, but I thought that it has long been said that the arctic is warming faster than any where else on the planet, possibly reducing the temperature difference pole to equator.

But maybe things have changed recently, pretty sure that the arctic ice extent has risen in the last 2-3 years. Odd.

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So with near record global temps (due to hot oceans) and DMI80N showing low Arctic temps would that hint at more energy in the weather machine as it fights to even things out?

Until the Arctic is ice free over winter ( and shrouded in fog keeping it warm over the sunless months) a warming planet must surely spawn energetic weather as the difference, pole to equator, increases?

😴😴😴

The first half of December will be relatively mild with a chance of a cold snap. Through the second half of December, I think the risk gradually increases of colder weather, with a fairly strong signal for cold at the end of December, into the start of January.

December 2014: Near average rainfall and temperatures. 

I don't think I was far off the mark with my December forecast.  It looks like it ended up a close to average month for temperatures (slightly mild depending on which CET series you use).  It was an average month for rainfall in my location, although it looks like it was a little below average in other areas.    The end of of December cold period perhaps came a little earlier than expected, and finished a little earlier than expected.  So overall, fairly pleased with the forecast so far.  Will just give a reminder of my original prognosis for January & February 2015:

Milder Atlantic air encroaches into the UK at times for the middle two weeks of January.   However, I think there will be much more significant period of cold towards the end of January and lasting until the middle of February. Certainly a strong risk of snowfall associated with this. Probably drier and less cold in the second half of February.

January 2015: Rather cold, near normal rainfall
February 2015: Rather cold and dry, (drier further north, colder further south-east)

 

 

 

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We can't possibly forecast that far ahead and we even struggle to get it right beyond five days.  However, my gut feeling is that we're in another run of mild winters.

My post from 21st August.  Nothing scientific, just a gut feeling and memories of a few decades of weather under my belt.  Even though we've just had a cold snap with snow, I don't think we'll get much more and I still think it will be relatively mild over all. 

I often wonder if humans have, or once had, a gut instinct for weather, like some animals do.  Maybe we do still have it deep down but it's overpowered by our much stronger feelings of wishful thinking. 

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