Hi Andy J

 

Here is your forecast for 2013-14, which, ended up being pretty wide of the mark.  What changes have you made to your methodologies in the light of your efforts from last year?

 

WI

 MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

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great forecast weather idle, a good read to hope your right

Hi Andy J

 

Here is your forecast for 2013-14, which, ended up being pretty wide of the mark.  What changes have you made to your methodologies in the light of your efforts from last year?

 

WI

 MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

Nice forecast!

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great forecast weather idle, a good read to hope your right

I hope I'm wrong, but there you go!

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In collaboration with Matty here's our LRF

 

 

IT'S ALL B'LLOCKS!

In collaboration with Matty here's our LRF

 

 

IT'S ALL B'LLOCKS!

in that case your end of Nov, beginning of Dec forecast was spot on. Total bollox  

purely for reference purposes:

How anyone can't see the potential for cold towards months end is beyond me, the NH profile is primed for cold being released into the mid latitudes and NW Europe looks to be in a favourable position this time around. The similarities with Novemner 2009 are amazing when viewing the NH charts, it's as rare as hens teeth that I get carried away but barring a complete u-turn the chances for the polar express stopping off at Blighty by the beginning of next month are at least 70:30 in favour. Ramp over!

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in that case your end of Nov, beginning of Dec forecast was spot on. Total bollox  

purely for reference purposes:

 

😂

😂

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In collaboration with Matty here's our LRF

 

 

IT'S ALL B'LLOCKS!

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Hi Andy J

 

Here is your forecast for 2013-14, which, ended up being pretty wide of the mark.  What changes have you made to your methodologies in the light of your efforts from last year?

 

Thanks for your question - I never realised older forecasts were kept on here!!

If I remember correctly, by the time we got to late November last year, I had 1989 as the best match for 2013.  However I think the problem last year was that there were some very contradictory signals, as the top 6 or 7 matches that I'd established for 2013 contained some very contrasting Winters - some very cold (ie. 1984-85) and some very mild.   To be honest, I should've not done a Winter forecast because the signals were too conflicting.

However, this year the top analogues to 2014 suggest to me there is a common theme developing for this Winter.  In fact here are the best matches to Summer/ Autumn 2014 from my own pattern matching technique: 

2009, 1984, 2002, 2011, 1995, 1982

All of the following Winters featured some decent wintry outbreaks in many places, with early Jan and early Feb seeming to be the focal point for snowy conditions.  Hope that's made it a bit clearer!

 

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I remember 2010 winter prospect was the beast from the East which turned out wrong after December. So this year's is covering all angles to keep everyone happy. Who knows what's going to happen. 🙂

CFS is increasingly going for a typical stormy and wet winter... this is Feb:

 

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brian - that was a strange thing to post. the strat thread on NW has been fairly realistic re trop developments as a consequence of strat ones. most idea around any cold around early dec were re the westward movement of the siberian high. what did the failure that have to do with the strat ??

 

Thanks for your question - I never realised older forecasts were kept on here!!

If I remember correctly, by the time we got to late November last year, I had 1989 as the best match for 2013.  However I think the problem last year was that there were some very contradictory signals, as the top 6 or 7 matches that I'd established for 2013 contained some very contrasting Winters - some very cold (ie. 1984-85) and some very mild.   To be honest, I should've not done a Winter forecast because the signals were too conflicting.

However, this year the top analogues to 2014 suggest to me there is a common theme developing for this Winter.  In fact here are the best matches to Summer/ Autumn 2014 from my own pattern matching technique: 

2009, 1984, 2002, 2011, 1995, 1982

All of the following Winters featured some decent wintry outbreaks in many places, with early Jan and early Feb seeming to be the focal point for snowy conditions.  Hope that's made it a bit clearer!

 

Here is some more pattern matching.

The  high autumn temperatures mean we have had three consecutive seasons that  were very warm.

This is highly unusual.In the preceding 141 years there were only four other years that achieved this.They were 1959,1997,2004 and 2005.FWIW the CET anomalies for those years were +0.8,+2.0,+ 1.1 and 0.0 respectively.The sample is too small to be satistically significant but does piont to a good chance of another winter on the warm side

Just a quick insight to what is being forecast for the USA in December according to ABC news.... Above avg temps for most of the states except far south eastern states which will be below avg. Precipitation average for most but above average for california.

 

Here is some more pattern matching.

The  high autumn temperatures mean we have had three consecutive seasons that  were very warm.

This is highly unusual.In the preceding 141 years there were only four other years that achieved this.They were 1959,1997,2004 and 2005.FWIW the CET anomalies for those years were +0.8,+2.0,+ 1.1 and 0.0 respectively.The sample is too small to be satistically significant but does piont to a good chance of another winter on the warm side

Hi Roger, I'm not sure where you drew the line between "very warm" and just "warm".  For me, Summer 2014 was only "warm", according to the Met Office figures, about 0.6C above average.

Having said that, we've now had six consecutive warmer than average seasons.  I wonder how many times that has happened in the past?  And if it has happened before, what did it lead to?

 

 

 

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Hi Roger, I'm not sure where you drew the line between "very warm" and just "warm".  For me, Summer 2014 was only "warm", according to the Met Office figures, about 0.6C above average.

Having said that, we've now had six consecutive warmer than average seasons.  I wonder how many times that has happened in the past?  And if it has happened before, what did it lead to?

 

 

 

Maybe this? http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/Snowball_Earth 

 

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The meto 32 dayer hasnt said anything for ages.  it may as well have just said 'there will be weather in weeks 3 and 4.  nothing too warm and nothing too cold. nothing too wet and nothing too dry.'  if you diont believe me, have a look back in the media thread both on here and on NW !

the fact is that there has been no strong guidance to conditions week 3 and 4. they plumped for a souwesterly flow. we havent really had a proper sustained souwesterly flow

And the man still spouts out the same crap over on twatter.

And the man still spouts out the same crap over on twatter.

He's a reverse Faily Express. 

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