Wouldn't extrapolate too much from the MJO in low amplitude phase 7. need it away from that 'circle of doom' to get much influence in my experience.

Although a negative NAO and AO increases the chances of cold outbreaks for the UK, it isn't a definite. Just look at March 1957, the warmest March on record for the CET despite both these values being in the negative and by margin as well.

February 1991, the coldest Feb since 1986, had a fairly positive NAO

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Although a negative NAO and AO increases the chances of cold outbreaks for the UK, it isn't a definite. Just look at March 1957, the warmest March on record for the CET despite both these values being in the negative and by margin as well.

February 1991, the coldest Feb since 1986, had a fairly positive NAO

Correlation between the actual DJF  NAO and CET is 0.66.but forecasting the acual NAO is difficult so if you looked at forecast NAO and CET correlation would be lower.It would be good if METO would release figures showing their  forecast winter NAO and the actual.

The MetO CPF forecast is available for December. January and February. Looks like it's been available for several days but I've just seen it now:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

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The MetO CPF forecast is available for December. January and February. Looks like it's been available for several days but I've just seen it now:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Drum roll please.......... Another pee poor attempt whist sitting on that rickety fence, why don't they  put their resources to good use and come up with forecast instead of a game of probabilities and chance.

Looks like the strat has warmed a bit, this chart illustrates how different it is to last year.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif 

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Drum roll please.......... Another pee poor attempt whist sitting on that rickety fence, why don't they  put their resources to good use and come up with forecast instead of a game of probabilities and chance.

Maybe because there is no proven forecasting method for that range? I guess they could speculate about certain things such as model runs having bias, but that would be daft 

A forecast based on probability rather than some speculative LRF method will be more accurate more often, even if it is a cop out. 

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Maybe because there is no proven forecasting method for that range? I guess they could speculate about certain things such as model runs having bias, but that would be daft 

A forecast based on probability rather than some speculative LRF method will be more accurate more often, even if it is a cop out. 

It hasn't been for the last 4 years.

The MetO CPF forecast is available for December. January and February. Looks like it's been available for several days but I've just seen it now:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

I think that's a very fair assessment of the current situation by MetO in my opinion. Thanks for posting. Perhaps the odd colder outbreak later on but overall a warmer than average outcome is favoured- I can live with that!

:-)

 

I think that's a very fair assessment of the current situation by MetO in my opinion. Thanks for posting. Perhaps the odd colder outbreak later on but overall a warmer than average outcome is favoured- I can live with that!

:-)

Lol, that's because your a mild ramper, but even if it was showing the probabilities for a colder than average winter I'd still be unhappy at the presentation and lack of detail.

I am happy with this forecast Jacko4ever because I just assume the opposite of what they say and in % of the cases I am right so roll on cold winter. In any case in the mountains of Kingston Upon Thames we already 2 hard frosts which is more then we had during the last winter Dec - Mar.

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Lol, that's because your a mild ramper, but even if it was showing the probabilities for a colder than average winter I'd still be unhappy at the presentation and lack of detail.

LOL I don't see how they can add much more detail- do you want them to say what the forecast is for Mrs Pricklepants' sisters birthday party on February 5th tea time in Slough? The point is that's all they can do is talk about probabilities- and even then it's still all up in the air. Be it mild or cold, they are on a hiding to nothing as usual. 

;-)

In any case it is still possible to have a mild winter on average with a few good snowy blasts in between that would have the press talking about it for years.

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LOL I don't see how they can add much more detail- do you want them to say what the forecast is for Mrs Pricklepants' sisters birthday party on February 5th tea time in Slough? The point is that's all they can do is talk about probabilities- and even then it's still all up in the air. Be it mild or cold, they are on a hiding to nothing as usual. 

;-)

😃 No I want a forecast not who may win the 2.30 at Haydock based on probabilities. 

In any case it is still possible to have a mild winter on average with a few good snowy blasts in between that would have the press talking about it for years.

Exactly

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Think I'm getting old, I'm already tired from "hunt the cold" game and its not even December yet! Still ,the watch words are potential or loaded. Ah bless......if I had a pound etc etc

Couple days off away from the models might be a short term cure.

Perspective though some member of the forum suggest that its going to be mild no sign of cold in the next 2 weeks. Its progged for a top temp of 5 or 6 here next week with a keen E wind......that's certainly not mild. Its the little things that get your goat.

I'll get my coat and pop back in at the weekend.

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Think I'm getting old, I'm already tired from "hunt the cold" game and its not even December yet! Still ,the watch words are potential or loaded. Ah bless......if I had a pound etc etc

Couple days off away from the models might be a short term cure.

Perspective though some member of the forum suggest that its going to be mild no sign of cold in the next 2 weeks. Its progged for a top temp of 5 or 6 here next week with a keen E wind...... Its the little things that get your goat.

I'll get my coat and pop back in at the weekend.

Chin up it's not even Winter yet  Mid-Month could well give us a shot at some cold and dare I say a wintry mix.

 

 

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Chin up it's not even Winter yet  Mid-Month could well give us a shot at some cold and dare I say a wintry mix.

Yeap!

Still have a gut feelng for very cold even some snow around the middle of next month.

It has to be or otherwise we won't get our usual wet dull Christmas day

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The other channel going for a coldish winter...........http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2014;sess=

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The other channel going for a coldish winter...........http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2014;sess=

Was just reading that myself, a wetter South is a worry unless it's Snow 

Also the significant wind event in December I presume will be on Christmas Day when far too many sprouts will be consumed across the U.K. 

Key Pointers from the Neighbours Winter Forecast

Overall the key conclusions are that winter will have the following characteristics:

• Slightly colder than average.


• Around average rainfall but conditions favour wetter further south and drier to the north of the UK.


• December likely to be the most unsettled month with the risk of a significant wind event (though less so compared to last year).


• February the most settled and driest month.


• Late December and into January is most likely to herald a significant wintry spell, though other major cold snaps throughout the winter are likely as well.


• Most of the UK likely to see some settling snow at some point.

 

 

These conditions are likely to be caused by:

• A mean negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) throughout winter of around -1


• Positive height anomalies to the north leading to significant high latitude blocking.


• A weakened stratospheric vortex with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) likely around the turn of the year leading to a very disturbed tropospheric polar vortex and negative NAO around this time.


• A southerly displaced jet stream

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-2014;sess=

 

Chop chop Brian..we are waiting for TWOs 

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