Upto 7.0c today maybe...

Met Office Hadley        7.1c.     Anomaly      3.5c.   Provisional to 7th.

Metcheck                    7.92c.   Anomaly      3.76c.

N-W                           7.75c.   Anomaly      3.55c.

My   Mean                  7.2c.

Thankfully (for my prediction!), those look set to beging falling from this weekend.

Met Office Hadley         7.2c.     Anomaly   3.7c.  Provisional  to  8 th.

Metcheck                     7.97c.   Anomaly   3.82c.

N-W                            7.84c.   Anomaly   3.64c.

My  Mean                    7.4c.

Met Office Hadley         7.2c.     Anomaly   3.7c.  Provisional  to  8 th.

Metcheck                     7.97c.   Anomaly   3.82c.

N-W                            7.84c.   Anomaly   3.64c.

My  Mean                    7.4c.

 

So still over 7C

It sure is me haha don't get much time to go on here as I live in New Zealand now, currently in Asia travelling, Vietnam, Cambodia and then Thailand, it's a constant party! no rest for the wicked  Anyway still foresee a change after mid month, probably sometime around the 20th is the best chance for a change to colder and could shift the pattern to colder for the remainder of winter, thought I'd get my name back in circulation! I'm happy with the prediction but reckon I may be half a degree too much we will see!

Tom

It sure is me haha don't get much time to go on here as I live in New Zealand now, currently in Asia travelling, Vietnam, Cambodia and then Thailand, it's a constant party! no rest for the wicked  Anyway still foresee a change after mid month, probably sometime around the 20th is the best chance for a change to colder and could shift the pattern to colder for the remainder of winter, thought I'd get my name back in circulation! I'm happy with the prediction but reckon I may be half a degree too much we will see!

 

Tom

Hey Tom - Good to hear from you. Hope the party continues!

Late on parade today....

Met Office Hadley 7.1c   Anomaly  3.6c.   Provisional Jan CET  3.59 c to 9th.

Metcheck             7.6c.   Anomaly 3.48c.

N-W                     7.54c.  Anomaly  3.34c.

My  Mean              7.3c.     

Ps.. Mountsorrel  CET Tracker is reading      6.68c.

It sure is me haha don't get much time to go on here as I live in New Zealand now, currently in Asia travelling, Vietnam, Cambodia and then Thailand, it's a constant party! no rest for the wicked  Anyway still foresee a change after mid month, probably sometime around the 20th is the best chance for a change to colder and could shift the pattern to colder for the remainder of winter, thought I'd get my name back in circulation! I'm happy with the prediction but reckon I may be half a degree too much we will see!

 

Tom

Hey Tom - Good to hear from you. Hope the party continues!

Agreed - hope you're having a top time, Tom

Thankfully (for my prediction!), those look set to beging falling from this weekend.

Or perhaps not...

It sure is me haha don't get much time to go on here as I live in New Zealand now, currently in Asia travelling, Vietnam, Cambodia and then Thailand, it's a constant party! no rest for the wicked  Anyway still foresee a change after mid month, probably sometime around the 20th is the best chance for a change to colder and could shift the pattern to colder for the remainder of winter, thought I'd get my name back in circulation! I'm happy with the prediction but reckon I may be half a degree too much we will see!

 

Tom

Hey Tom - Good to hear from you. Hope the party continues!

 

Agreed - hope you're having a top time, Tom

cheers guys, completely off topic but I am a bit of a nomad, just have to stay safe and have a crazy time! I have been knocking around here the last 14 years as has quite a few, my best wishes are there for u all  Anyway live the dream, should be allowed back into Aussie land with a kiwi passport in under 3 years!! In Cambodia you would be shocked, there is a place called Sihanoukville, it had me falling back in love with the the UK, they are doing the UK proud there and noone knows about it, dont tell the government hehehe

On topic and I think this winter will end up quite mild, however if the strat warming is able to change the pattern, theres not a lot to switch it back..

take care guys!

Tom

I think the momentum of the situaltion has favoured mild since June last year, what do u think, seems that way, it will change back to colder again at some point!

Tom

I think the momentum of the situaltion has favoured mild since June last year, what do u think, seems that way, it will change back to colder again at some point!

 

Tom

Indeed Tom. The second half of 2013 was the eighth warmest on record in the CET series for the final six months of the year. The year as a whole was slightly below average.

Warmest Jul - Dec periods in the history of the CET

2006 13.37C
1959 12.52C
1949 12.43C
1995 12.40C
1997 12.37C
1983 12.35C
1857 12.35C
2013 12.33C

The first half of 2013 was the 55th coldest in the 355 year CET series.

The difference between the mean CET for the first six months of the year and the mean for the second six months of the year was the third largest on record.

        Jan-Jun  Jul-Dec  Diff

1795  5.57C   11.77C  6.20C
1729  6.47C   12.05C  5.58C
2013  6.81C   12.33C  5.52C

Four other years in recent times have seen a difference of over 5C (1947 5.32C, 1955 5.30C, 1979 5.22C, 2006 5.08C)

Met Office Hadley     7.0c     Anomaly   3.4c.    provisional   to   10th.

Metcheck                 7.54c.   Anomaly   3.39c.

N-W                        7.46c.    Anomaly  3.26c.

My    Mean               7.1c.

The CET should be less warm over the next couple of weeks but still generally slightly above average. Only 2 days are currently predicted to be below average, one of which is tomorrow due to a frost expected tonight.

Overall the CET is currently predicted to be 1.5C above the 1971-2000 mean by 24 Jan

The winter CET is currently standing just under 2C above the 1971-2000 mean. This figure is likely to come down a little over the next couple of weeks but only slowly.

I have added in the 3 warmest winters in recent years to the chart below for comparison purposes. 2013/4 is unlikely to be warmer than any of these years unless we have a very warm February.

Met Office Hadley    6.8c.     Anomaly     3.2c.      Provisional  to  11th.

Metcheck                7.06c    Anomaly     2.90c.  

N-W                       7.04c    Anomaly      2.84c

My Mean                 6.9c.

Mountsorrel             6.42c

Does anyone know if thre has yet been an air frost  in Winchester so far this winter ,or for that matter in autumn as well?

I've been away quite a lot in Nov/Dec but in the times I,ve been around there hasn't  been any air frost.Amazing!

The winter CET is currently standing just under 2C above the 1971-2000 mean. This figure is likely to come down a little over the next couple of weeks but only slowly.

I have added in the 3 warmest winters in recent years to the chart below for comparison purposes. 2013/4 is unlikely to be warmer than any of these years unless we have a very warm February.

Excellent figures there and good points Simon as well.

I reckon we need a February like 1998 to break the mild record.

That will only come about if the Azores high drifts into southern Europe and sets itself up as a Bartlett High, which was what happened in 1998.

I feel sorry for zubzero...

Think what it would take for him to win this month.