March to May

Temperature summary

For March-April-May as a whole, below-average temperatures are marginally more likely than above-average temperatures. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for March-April-May will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 20% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 15 and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mam-v2.pdf 

Precipitation

For March-April-May as a whole, above-average precipitation is slightly more likely than below-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for March-April-May will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 15-20% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 25% and 30% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-mam-v2.pdf 

Countryfile week ahead forecast

Monday 5 March—Sunday 11 March

A reduced intensity of cold and snow

With the North Atlantic jet stream still predicted to be displaced well to the south of the UK (over Spain, France and Italy) early next week, we cannot expect a rapid change to mild conditions any time soon. Indeed, temperatures remain below average for early March and further overnight frosts expected, especially in the north. With low pressure areas nearby, further snowfall is expected, especially over northern hills, but the risk is much lower from the Midland southwards. Daytime temperatures should be a little higher than this week, rising to 4-7C quite widely, locally 8-9C in far SW. Winds are unlikely to be very strong and will be much lower than normal in the north.

Low pressure areas will continue to influence the UK during the end of next week, meaning that conditions will remain unsettled. While there is a good chance that winds will pick up at times, after the low wind speeds of earlier in the week, the threat of a strong wind event is low. Temperatures are expected to stay colder than normal for March, especially so over central and northern areas of the UK, with night frosts ongoing. Snowfall can still be expected, particularly on the northern edge of individual low pressure areas, but certainly a lower risk than the past few days.

Monday 12 March—Sunday 18 March

Classic springtime weather - a bit of everything!

The middle part of March will very likely see a real mixture of weather, as high pressure ridges alternate with low pressure influence. However, it seems more likely that the third week of March will be influenced by low pressure on many days, with above normal rainfall amounts, especially in the south. Temperatures struggling to rise above the seasonal average, and snow is still likely to be a threat over some northern hills. However, in the sunshine and out of the wind, it will likely feel quite pleasant and spring like. As we head through to late March, it is more likely that high pressure ridges will develop more widely close to the UK again. This could bring some chilly weather, with frost at night, but in the daytime sunshine, temperatures creeping into the teens.

Monday 19 March—Sunday 1 April

A chillier end to March

As we move towards the end of March, indications are that high pressure should become centred to the west over the mid-Atlantic. This could allow another wave of cold air to sink south across the UK, bringing below average temperatures and a risk of springtime frosts. Rainfall should be near to below normal. The greatest chance of occasional wet weather appears to be across the east rather than the west, but snow should be mostly restricted to northern hills.

Next Update

We will be trying to accurately predict where the high pressure ridges will end up being located during the next few weeks. Wind direction is very important at this time of year for dictating temperature and whether we will see warm sunny days, or cold frosty ones under a high pressure area!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Mar 2018 to Monday 19 Mar 2018:

A very unsettled period, with heavy rain probably moving northwards across much of the UK during the weekend, followed by blustery showers across central and southern parts. There is the low risk of disruptive snow across some northern parts of the UK, which may give some locally significant accumulations, especially over higher ground. Into next week, and it remains unsettled, with further spells of rain, heavy at times, but interspered with brighter and showery interludes. Probably the wettest and windiest conditions likely to be across the south and west. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly on the hills. Probably staying rather cold in the north, but perhaps becoming mild or very mild in the south and east at times. Overnight frost likely in any brief quieter interludes.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 20 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 3 Apr 2018:

A continuation of rather cold and unsettled conditions seems likely to continue through mid-March, with a risk of further snow at times. The snow will mainly be in the north, with the wettest conditions likely in central and southern parts of the UK. It may then stay unsettled and become milder, as westerly or southwesterly winds return. This is likely to bring wetter conditions in the northwest and drier conditions in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around the average for the end of March and into early April. Drier, colder and more blocked conditions could still become re-establised at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Staying unsettled

Spells of wind and rain

Still a risk of snow for Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43281850 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/927537/UK-weather-warning-Met-Office-Atlantic-storm-snow-forecast 

UK Outlook for Sunday 11 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 20 Mar 2018:

A very unsettled period, with rain and hill snow across northern parts of the UK during Sunday, which will be followed by bands of rain and showers, perhaps locally heavy, with the risk of hail and thunder at times. Into next week, and it remains unsettled, with further spells of rain, heavy at times, but interspered with brighter and showery interludes. Probably the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be across the south and west. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly on higher ground. Probably staying rather cold in the north, but perhaps becoming milder in the south and east at times. Overnight frost are likely in any brief quieter interludes.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 4 Apr 2018:

A continuation of rather cold and unsettled conditions seems likely to continue through mid-March, with a risk of further snow at times. The snow will mainly be in the north, with the wettest conditions likely in central and southern parts of the UK. It may then stay unsettled and become milder, as westerly or southwesterly winds return. This is likely to bring wetter conditions in the northwest and drier conditions in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around the average for the end of March and into early April. Drier, colder and more blocked conditions could still become re-establised at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Staying unsettled

Spells of wind and rain

Still a risk of snow

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43310878