The Weather Outlook

Remove ads from site

LeedsLad123
Friday, March 9, 2018 11:49:39 AM

 

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/red-alert-in-edinburgh-as-winter-bites-1078785

I think the new (current) system was implemented in 2011.  Maybe that's what they mean so there was a "red alert" in 2010 but perhaps under the old system it wasn't quite so well defined as it is now with the impact matrix.

Originally Posted by: howham 

But a red warning was issued for South Wales in January 2013, and I'm pretty sure there have been red warnings for wind since then too.

Edit: In December 2011, a red warning was issued for the central belt for wind.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
noodle doodle
Friday, March 9, 2018 11:50:34 AM
The met office brought in the colour coding back in 2008

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1582081/Colour-coded-warning-system-for-bad-weather.html 

I suppose they might argue the definitions are now slightly different, more formalised etc but a red warning is still a red warning.

Gavin D
Friday, March 9, 2018 12:14:06 PM
UK weekend weather: Low pressure system pushes WARM AIR to Britain - Sunday to reach 20C

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/929386/Weather-forecast-BBC-weather-warm-Spring-Weekend-weather-Sunday-Saturday 

Joe Bloggs
Friday, March 9, 2018 12:16:22 PM

 

 

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/red-alert-in-edinburgh-as-winter-bites-1078785

I think the new (current) system was implemented in 2011.  Maybe that's what they mean so there was a "red alert" in 2010 but perhaps under the old system it wasn't quite so well defined as it is now with the impact matrix.

Originally Posted by: howham 

This is weird, and yes you're probably right.

There may have been subtle changes to the warning system, but the yellow/amber/red system definitely existed back in 2010. 

Prior to this the worst case scenario was an Exceptionally Severe Weather Warning . Scotland had one in 2001 IIRC, due to really bad snow. There was also some kind of big scary weather warning (either red, or exceptionally severe, for the Feb 2009 easterly).

 

Gavin D
Friday, March 9, 2018 1:38:30 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Mar 2018 to Friday 23 Mar 2018:

Unsettled through next week, with outbreaks of rain at times, heaviest in the west and southwest of the UK, where gales are possible too. There is a risk of snow over northern hills, but temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with a risk of overnight frost at times in the north. The unsettled conditions will probably remain through the rest of the forecast period, with further spells of rain, interspersed with brighter and showery interludes. Snow will mainly be confined to the north of the UK, and will mainly be falling across the hills and high ground, with outbreaks of rain more likely in the south.There is a risk it could turn colder again with a greater chance of overnight frosts and perhaps wintry showers.

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Mar 2018 to Saturday 7 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period, and the forecast may change nearer the time. It will probably be rather unsettled and rather cold with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring wetter conditions in the northwest and drier conditions in the southeast. Temperatures will generally be around the average for the end of March and into early April. However, there remains a chance that drier and colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Friday, March 9, 2018 9:57:44 PM
Into next weekend

Sunny spells

Heavy showers

Mild for many

Turning colder in Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43353058 

Gavin D
Saturday, March 10, 2018 12:31:58 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Mar 2018 to Saturday 24 Mar 2018:

On Thursday and Friday outbreaks of rain are likely to affect some western and southern areas, where gales are possible too. The rain is likely to gradually fragment as drier conditions already in the east and north, spread slowly westwards with time. Over the weekend slightly more settled conditions may develop across the whole country, but with an ongoing risk of rain and gales in the west and south while in the north and east some snow showers are possible. Rather cold for most, though perhaps nearer normal in the southwest at first. There's low confidence in the forecast detail through the rest of this period, but probably continuing unsettled and cold, with further rain or showers in all areas, and a risk of snow and widespread frost at times.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Mar 2018 to Sunday 8 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty throughout this period, and the forecast detail may change nearer the time. Conditions will probably start unsettled and rather cold with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly but not exclusively in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring wetter and windier conditions to the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the drier conditions. Temperatures will generally be mostly below the average for the end of March and into early April. However, there remains a chance that drier and much colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
Sunday, March 11, 2018 12:15:28 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Mar 2018 to Sunday 25 Mar 2018:

For Friday, outbreaks of rain are likely to affect some northern and eastern areas, where gales are possible too. The rain is likely to gradually fragment as showery conditions already in the south and west, spread slowly eastwards with time. Over the weekend slightly more settled conditions may develop across the whole country, but with a risk of rain and gales returning to the west and south, while in the north and east some snow showers are possible. It may become rather cold for most, with frosts possible. It will be drier, although further wintry showers are likely in the east and northeast, and this is likely to continue towards the end of March. It will be mostly breezy, and gales are likely in the northeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Mar 2018 to Monday 9 Apr 2018:

There is a lot of uncertainty throughout this period, and the forecast detail may change nearer the time. Conditions will probably start unsettled and rather cold, with rain or showers for many, and the risk of snow at times, mainly but not exclusively in the north. It may then stay unsettled but become milder, with westerly or southwesterly winds. This would bring the wettest and windiest conditions to southern and central areas. Temperatures will generally be mostly below the average for the end of March and into early April, however, there remains a chance that drier and much colder conditions could still affect the UK at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

doctormog
Sunday, March 11, 2018 12:22:44 PM
So, still no improvement.


Brian Gaze
Sunday, March 11, 2018 12:33:32 PM

Interesting to see the Met flagging up the possibility of snow showers in the north and east next weekend.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gooner
Sunday, March 11, 2018 1:29:07 PM

Good update 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Whether Idle
Sunday, March 11, 2018 2:40:17 PM

Good update 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

I'm also in the market for a late cold hit.  If it misses, I'm also happy with spring-like warmth.  If that misses, then Im after rain for the aquifers. 

Hopefully a bit of all 3 over the next month.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, March 11, 2018 3:00:18 PM

 

I'm also in the market for a late cold hit.  If it misses, I'm also happy with spring-like warmth.  If that misses, then Im after rain for the aquifers. 

Hopefully a bit of all 3 over the next month.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

I would far rather have spring warmth than winter cold now. We are well into March, let's leave winter behind! That said, If we can't have warmth then I would prefer proper cold rather than non-descript chilly cold rain type weather, which I fear we will have this month.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

tallyho_83
Sunday, March 11, 2018 10:22:49 PM
BBC 1 week ahead forecast showed the HP sinking south!? during weekend.
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

richardabdn
Sunday, March 11, 2018 10:42:56 PM

The new BBC forecasts are dreadful beyond words. I thought the old graphics were awful and difficult to interpret and these are even worse. Last week I couldn't differentiate cloud from snow and, either I interpreted yesterdays forecast for today incorrectly or it was just completely useless.

Forecast was for a max of 11C and it looked as though it was going to be sunny all day. STV's forecast on the other hand showed a maximum of 8C with sun during the morning then cloud for the afternoon which was spot on. The satellite images looked exactly as they had forecast.

Something wrong when STV forecasts are more accurate and professional than the BBC. It would be akin to finding higher quality journalism in the Mirror than in the Times. 

 

 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything

2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November

2024 - 2023 without the Good Bits

2025 - The Weekend Curse hell intensifies

johncs2016
Sunday, March 11, 2018 10:53:39 PM

The new BBC forecasts are dreadful beyond words. I thought the old graphics were awful and difficult to interpret and these are even worse. Last week I couldn't differentiate cloud from snow and, either I interpreted yesterdays forecast for today incorrectly or it was just completely useless.

Forecast was for a max of 11C and it looked as though it was going to be sunny all day. STV's forecast on the other hand showed a maximum of 8C with sun during the morning then cloud for the afternoon which was spot on. The satellite images looked exactly as they had forecast.

Something wrong when STV forecasts are more accurate and professional than the BBC. It would be akin to finding higher quality journalism in the Mirror than in the Times. 

 

 

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 

I wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that unlike the BBC, ITV (in this context, we can include STV as part of the ITV franchise since they really go by what the overall ITV network does when it comes to those sorts of issues) still get their forecasts from the Met Office, rather than from some private company like Meteogroup? One thing which I can remember is that whilst the BBC were going through that lengthy process of ditching the Met Office in favour of Meteogroup, commercial TV stations such as Channel Four and Channel Five actually renewed their own contract with the Met Office (which may or may not have been as a response to that). I'm not sure whether or not, ITV did likewise at that time, but I have a feeling that they might have done so.

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

sizzle
Monday, March 12, 2018 8:22:04 AM

BBC WEATHER this week  rain often mild A COLDER WEEKEND ???

Gavin D
Monday, March 12, 2018 10:03:28 AM
BBC monthly outlook

Monday 12 March—Sunday 18 March

Mild, wet and windy mid-week. Colder end.

Mostly cloudy on Monday, with rain over east and south-eastern England early on and then a weak front spreading a new band of rain into western areas of the UK on Monday evening. A short-lived high pressure ridge on Tuesday will bring plenty of dry weather to western areas, but a weak front over central and eastern England will bring patchy rain in the morning and a few heavy showers over the Midlands and East Anglia in the afternoon. Turning wet and windy from the west on Wednesday, with increased probability of strong southerly winds over southwest England, Wales and Irish Sea areas with gusts of 50-60mph possible here. Widespread heavy rain moving slowly eastwards, heaviest in the west. Slight risk of local frost in northeast Scotland on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, frost free.

Low pressure becomes slow moving across the UK through the remainder of the week, as high pressure intensifies over Scandinavia. Mild, especially in the south, until the weekend, with showery conditions, some heavy and thundery. As low pressure weakens, the winds will ease by Friday and the weekend. A trend to colder conditions over Scotland seems most likely during the weekend, with increased risk of widespread frost and some snow showers here. The biggest uncertainty is how quickly the cold air will filter south-west across the UK, with a chance it will be delayed into the following week, if low pressure is more stubborn to decay.

Monday 19 March—Sunday 25 March

A cold spell looms - less severe than previously

The final ten days of March are looking increasingly likely to see a return to more widespread cold conditions. North or north-easterly winds developing as high pressure intensifies to the north of the UK and low pressure areas are more focused over central and south-eastern parts of Europe rather than across the UK. However, it seems very unlikely that a cold spell of the magnitude that we saw in late February and the start of March will develop. That was produced by an exceptional set of circumstances in the atmosphere, which forced bitterly cold air rapidly south-westwards from Siberia, before it had chance to be modified by the milder Atlantic winds. This time, a more typical early springtime cold spell seems more likely, with the northern half of the UK most exposed to more sustained cold anomalies than further south. Because we expect winds from the north-east, and with high pressure closer to Scotland than Kent, then it seems likely the wettest and windiest weather will be found over southern areas, while north-western Scotland enjoys a break from the normal deluges and has some dry spells.

Monday 26 March—Sunday 8 April

A windy, unsettled and chilly start to April.

Into the start of April, the most likely outcome is for low pressure areas to reside close to the UK, while high pressure intensifies over Spain and southern France. This will mean unsettled, windy conditions are more likely than sustained periods of dry and calm weather. Additionally, with the winds blowing from the northwest more often than from the south and southwest, then the number of chilly days will still outnumber the milder days. Not only are the latest weather computer models trending towards this scenario, but our long range forecasters have spent time analysing recent global weather patterns and identifying previous years which saw similar patterns. Their results support the model guidance, which increases confidence in our predictions.

Next Update

The expectation of another cold spell is always cause for interest and concern. While there are certainly signs of something colder to return, after the brief bursts of spring warmth over the next week or so, at this kind of range the forecast is never a certainty! We will be assessing the latest forecast signals to see if the risk of another cold spell has increased or decreased.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

jhall
Monday, March 12, 2018 10:16:05 AM

 

The Met Office definitely issued a red warning in Dec 2010 for Edinburgh. I was living there at the time and remember it well.

They'd also issued one for the Somerset area for snow, a week or so earlier.

I'm confused by this talk of "red warnings for the first time", last week. Not true.

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 

I'm sure there was one issued for the heavy snow in the London area in February 2009.


Cranleigh, Surrey
Sussex snow magnet
Monday, March 12, 2018 11:15:56 AM
Isn't it to do with the comments relating to the current warning system not starting until 2011?
Gavin D
Monday, March 12, 2018 12:25:42 PM
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Mar 2018 to Monday 26 Mar 2018:

Saturday will begin mainly cloudy with further rain in places. Snow is probable over high ground in the northeast and possibly to lower levels. South and southwestern parts may start off with brighter, showery conditions. Through the weekend it will probably become drier and brighter with the best of the brightness in the northwest, although with a risk of snow showers across the east and southeast. It may become rather cold for most, accentuated by the wind, with widespread frosts possible. Very uncertain into the following week, but with a high chance of colder than normal conditions. Probably mainly dry and bright at first, but becoming rather unsettled heading into the week, with snow possible across central and northern areas at times. Breezy with strong winds occasionally possible for all.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Mar 2018 to Tuesday 10 Apr 2018:

There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern appears most likely. This will most likely result in Atlantic systems affecting the southwest at times bringing brief incursions of milder air, with colder conditions tending to dominate across the east and northeast with wintry showers. There is a moderate risk of colder conditions developing more widely for a time, with a low risk of a spell of more significant snow. The wettest conditions are likely across southern and central areas. Any periods of more mobile conditions are likely to last for no more than a few days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gooner
Monday, March 12, 2018 1:09:52 PM

Good update 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



noodle doodle
Monday, March 12, 2018 3:31:55 PM

 

I'm sure there was one issued for the heavy snow in the London area in February 2009.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

 

The metoffice introduced colour coded warnings in 2008

 

The met office brought in the colour coding back in 2008

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1582081/Colour-coded-warning-system-for-bad-weather.html


I suppose they might argue the definitions are now slightly different, more formalised etc but a red warning is still a red warning.

Originally Posted by: noodle doodle 

 

The met office seem to be saying that they tweaked the definitions of those colour codings in 2011 so previous ones don't count?

Which to me seems a bit like saying if the FA tweak the conditions for getting a red card then all previous red cards don't count...

tallyho_83
Monday, March 12, 2018 4:43:18 PM

Good update 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

It is indeed - I have more faith in the Met Office update's than any models - the fact they called a 'blizzard' in their medium range update a week before that easterly arrived end of Feb/early March - the fact they stuck to their forecast of a blizzard for many southern counties and never did shy away from it and that it did come about - i am quite pleased with their forecast outlook especially as it was so far in advance and that storm Emma could have been 100 miles south for instance. - They were spot on with the easterly. Up until the blizzard took place I was always skeptical. But those Met Office update's a week before the easterly arrive was spot on!

Let's hope this one is as well. If not I would be happy with fry and cold - not one day has been dry since storm Emma and another snow event on 2nd March.

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

tallyho_83
Monday, March 12, 2018 4:50:32 PM

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Prime example - issued on the 24th Feb covering from 1st March. - The forecast was correct although the blizzard mainly affected south western area's like Devon that missed out on the snow showers, esp East Devon.

They were late in issuing the red warning though and was correct with that - i didn't think we would see more than a dusting but it became a dump of powder totally up to "6 to 7" ins 16cm to  17cms! Then more snow on Friday 2nd March as forecast above. This was correct as well. Even 5 days out. 

 

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Remove ads from site