BBC monthly outlook
Monday 12 March—Sunday 18 March
Mild, wet and windy mid-week. Colder end.
Mostly cloudy on Monday, with rain over east and south-eastern England early on and then a weak front spreading a new band of rain into western areas of the UK on Monday evening. A short-lived high pressure ridge on Tuesday will bring plenty of dry weather to western areas, but a weak front over central and eastern England will bring patchy rain in the morning and a few heavy showers over the Midlands and East Anglia in the afternoon. Turning wet and windy from the west on Wednesday, with increased probability of strong southerly winds over southwest England, Wales and Irish Sea areas with gusts of 50-60mph possible here. Widespread heavy rain moving slowly eastwards, heaviest in the west. Slight risk of local frost in northeast Scotland on Tuesday morning. Otherwise, frost free.
Low pressure becomes slow moving across the UK through the remainder of the week, as high pressure intensifies over Scandinavia. Mild, especially in the south, until the weekend, with showery conditions, some heavy and thundery. As low pressure weakens, the winds will ease by Friday and the weekend. A trend to colder conditions over Scotland seems most likely during the weekend, with increased risk of widespread frost and some snow showers here. The biggest uncertainty is how quickly the cold air will filter south-west across the UK, with a chance it will be delayed into the following week, if low pressure is more stubborn to decay.
Monday 19 March—Sunday 25 March
A cold spell looms - less severe than previously
The final ten days of March are looking increasingly likely to see a return to more widespread cold conditions. North or north-easterly winds developing as high pressure intensifies to the north of the UK and low pressure areas are more focused over central and south-eastern parts of Europe rather than across the UK. However, it seems very unlikely that a cold spell of the magnitude that we saw in late February and the start of March will develop. That was produced by an exceptional set of circumstances in the atmosphere, which forced bitterly cold air rapidly south-westwards from Siberia, before it had chance to be modified by the milder Atlantic winds. This time, a more typical early springtime cold spell seems more likely, with the northern half of the UK most exposed to more sustained cold anomalies than further south. Because we expect winds from the north-east, and with high pressure closer to Scotland than Kent, then it seems likely the wettest and windiest weather will be found over southern areas, while north-western Scotland enjoys a break from the normal deluges and has some dry spells.
Monday 26 March—Sunday 8 April
A windy, unsettled and chilly start to April.
Into the start of April, the most likely outcome is for low pressure areas to reside close to the UK, while high pressure intensifies over Spain and southern France. This will mean unsettled, windy conditions are more likely than sustained periods of dry and calm weather. Additionally, with the winds blowing from the northwest more often than from the south and southwest, then the number of chilly days will still outnumber the milder days. Not only are the latest weather computer models trending towards this scenario, but our long range forecasters have spent time analysing recent global weather patterns and identifying previous years which saw similar patterns. Their results support the model guidance, which increases confidence in our predictions.
Next Update
The expectation of another cold spell is always cause for interest and concern. While there are certainly signs of something colder to return, after the brief bursts of spring warmth over the next week or so, at this kind of range the forecast is never a certainty! We will be assessing the latest forecast signals to see if the risk of another cold spell has increased or decreased.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook