The Weather Outlook

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tallyho_83
01 March 2018 10:38:13

 

You're right, I must have looked at the wrong one although I must say that the weather still doesn't seem to be getting any better with that and according to the forecasts which I have seen, that gradual improvement in the weather which we will ultimately get eventually has now been delayed until tomorrow whereas that was previously going to start from later on today.

 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Your red warning expires 10am so you're back to Amber unless you're looking at the new red warning that was recently issued for the SW - where I am) :)


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

johncs2016
01 March 2018 10:47:20

 

You're fed up with the snow really? :P

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Well, I did spend all winter looking for snow but now that it has finally started snowing, it just doesn't seem to want to stop. I guess, that I've probably just fallen that old adage of having to be careful of what I wish for. In the end, I did get what I wished for in that regard but the only problem was that it came too late.

That's just like the same sort of thing which we tend to get a lot with rain because we can get a really dry spell which lasts for long enough for threads to start appearing here in due to concerns about a possible drought. Then all of a sudden, the heavens open, it then never stops raining for quite a long time and then before you know it, there ends up being a lot of flooding.

This scenario with snow is turning out to be no different in that regard.

 

 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Nordic Snowman
01 March 2018 10:48:06

Though some severe and disruptive conditions will no doubt cause misery for many, it is at the same time quite funny. Just the shear number of warning amendments in itself means that in essence, the MET themselves are effectively nowcasting rather than rely too much on model forecasts.

We may as well throw up an open bag of skittles and see where they land.

I bet Portsmouth will get the dreaded green ones at that.


Bjorli, Norway

Website 

tallyho_83
01 March 2018 10:53:32

So we are forecast -Heavy snow, then a blizzard followed by a few hours of freezing rain before more heavy wet snow tomorrow morning with accumulations of 10- 20cms and locally (even at lower level) up to 40 or 50cms over Dartmoor or Exmoor. Temps of -3c and rising to -1c tomorrow morning then up to +1c tomorrow afternoon but windchills of -10c!" - Having looked at the content of the weather over the next 24 to 48 hours! this type of weather (it's contents, temperatures and snowfall amounts) sound like a real nor'easter type weather event you would get up the eastern seaboard of the USA like NYC & DC to Boston etc but in happening in Plymouth, Exeter and Bristol! Classic! - This will be one to remember.

Meanwhile in Montreal Canada, temps are well above freezing:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/ca/montreal/h3a/weather-forecast/56186

 


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Rob K
01 March 2018 10:54:54

 

Amber area now updated to just east of Blackburn 

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Proof the Met Office lurk on TWO!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
01 March 2018 10:57:58

Though some severe and disruptive conditions will no doubt cause misery for many, it is at the same time quite funny. Just the shear number of warning amendments in itself means that in essence, the MET themselves are effectively nowcasting rather than rely too much on model forecasts.

Originally Posted by: Nordic Snowman 

TBH I would much rather they were reactive and fast to amend warning areas "on the fly" as necessary rather than sticking to a forecast even if it turns out to be inaccurate. That way we can refresh the warnings and at least feel like we are kept up to date.

The initial warning area they put out for today, which was back on Monday night I think (?) has turned out to be pretty accurate. Obviously it has had to be refined, but back then some of the models were making it appear to be some kind of joke putting snow warnings for the SW, as they were pushing mild air up towards Scotland!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Crepuscular Ray
01 March 2018 11:02:26

Yes heavy snow in Chelmsford for the last few hours The snow that pushed eastwards and then northwards into France yesterday was quite well ahead of storm Emma. That initial band of snow over France has weakened and dispersed. The "all France" radar does not show the Channel snow properly. What happened was that the leading bands of snow from France moved across the Channel in the small hours and engaged with the remains of the streamer. This has introduced some additional moisture and the band has expanded and "may" become self sustaining and bridge the gap to the main event later today or we may get a lull as it pushes northwards. So look at it as an appertizer before things really wind up later on

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Cheers Polar!


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

LeedsLad123
01 March 2018 11:04:05
Not sure what the amber warning is for? It's not snowing anymore. Is it because of drifting?
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Solar Cycles
01 March 2018 11:18:40

 

Proof the Met Office lurk on TWO!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

😁

tallyho_83
01 March 2018 11:21:33
Well after 100 times I think I can say the Express has it right about "Blizzards!" haha! I don't like to compliment the Express but they got it right after years of guessing! Perhaps 1 in 100 ha! 🙂
Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Maunder Minimum
01 March 2018 11:32:23

Well after 100 times I think I can say the Express has it right about "Blizzards!" haha! I don't like to compliment the Express but they got it right after years of guessing! Perhaps 1 in 100 ha! :)

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

A stuck clock is right twice a day :-)


New world order coming.
tallyho_83
01 March 2018 12:49:35
Who has the latest radar and one that works - i misplaced the link:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ 

even the Met office one is down as well as meteoradar.


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

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Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Brian Gaze
01 March 2018 12:50:12

Who has the latest radar and one that works - i misplaced the link:

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

even the Met office one is down as well as meteoradar.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Working ok:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-rainfall-radar.aspx

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

The JR
01 March 2018 12:53:47
I do wonder about the red warning for Scotland.

It didn't start until 3 pm yesterday although the weather was no better for several hours before that. It ended at 10am this morning yet the showers continue just as often and just as heavy and the wind has, if anything, got stronger which is making the drifting worse. The only positive is the improved visibility in the strong daylight but that been the case since 6.30am. So why pick 10am?

Could there be any element of political/commercial collusion in the timings? It seems to me there is a possibility that there had to be some kind of trade off with public and private sector employers to ensure that working hours weren't too badly affected.

Think about it. Only the red warning actually says do not go out/danger to life etc so the commercial interests know they are on sticky legal ground if they insist and something bad happens. Amber is more ambiguous and suits an agenda to insist people try to make it to work.

Thoughts?

Rob K
01 March 2018 13:01:03

I do wonder about the red warning for Scotland.

It didn't start until 3 pm yesterday although the weather was no better for several hours before that. It ended at 10am this morning yet the showers continue just as often and just as heavy and the wind has, if anything, got stronger which is making the drifting worse. The only positive is the improved visibility in the strong daylight but that been the case since 6.30am. So why pick 10am?

Could there be any element of political/commercial collusion in the timings? It seems to me there is a possibility that there had to be some kind of trade off with public and private sector employers to ensure that working hours weren't too badly affected.

Think about it. Only the red warning actually says do not go out/danger to life etc so the commercial interests know they are on sticky legal ground if they insist and something bad happens. Amber is more ambiguous and suits an agenda to insist people try to make it to work.

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by: The JR 

I think if that were the case they would have ended it well before 10am, as with a red warning in place till 10 most people would already have decided not to go to work/school, even if they were open.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

soperman
01 March 2018 13:11:49

Amber freezing rain warnings throughout northern and mid France now


Happily living by the sea in Brixham......but sad to leave the snowy Chiltern Hills after 35 years!
Gavin D
01 March 2018 13:15:35
Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Mar 2018 to Thursday 15 Mar 2018:

Further rain, sleet and snow are expected at times on Tuesday and Wednesday. Northern parts are likely to see the snow, whereas rain or sleet are more likely further south. It will stay very cold in the north with brisk winds. In the south, it will be less cold, but cloud, mist and fog are likely, which may be slow to clear during the day. During the following week, and into mid-March it is likely to stay cold in the north, but temperatures could return nearer normal in the south, though still below average. Rain and strong winds are likely across the UK, perhaps turning to snow across central and northern parts. The best chance of drier conditions will be in the far north and northwest.

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Mar 2018 to Friday 30 Mar 2018:

The predominately easterly wind is likely to persist for a while across the north with colder than average weather here, but it may be a little milder at times in the south and southwest of the UK. There will continue to be a risk of snow across some central and northern areas, but in the far north and northwest it is likely to be drier. Night frost and ice will continue to occur at times. Later in March it may turn more unsettled and lh milder as westerly or southwesterly winds return. The timing of more Spring-like weather remains uncertain.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
01 March 2018 13:18:44

Worst SNOW STORM in 50 years to hit in SEVEN HOURS - Killer Storm Emma to SMASH entire UK

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/925413/UK-snow-weather-snow-storm-Emma-forecast-Thursday-Friday-latest

UK to run out of gas TODAY: National Grid warns of energy crisis as snow storm Emma rages

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/925663/UK-snow-storm-Gas-runs-out-National-Grid-2018-weather

Gavin D
01 March 2018 13:26:14
Send in the military: Armed Forces are deployed as Britain is put on red alert for the first time as South West faces up to two feet of snow and National Grid warns UK is 'running out of gas'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5448635/Hundreds-drivers-spend-13-HOURS-trapped-overnight.html 

The JR
01 March 2018 13:28:51

 

I think if that were the case they would have ended it well before 10am, as with a red warning in place till 10 most people would already have decided not to go to work/school, even if they were open.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Perhaps  but maybe there was a compromise to at least delay the rush hour? My partner was told yesterday that the council offices would open at noon today but by 11am that was changed to being closed all day. Also it still doesn't explain why the red warning has it ended here. The weather is no better and the amber was extended from 6pm tonight until 10am tomorrow. Just doesn't make sense.

 

Same as the roads that were blocked by jack-knifed or otherwise stuck HGVs. After the episode in Dec 2010 they promised legislation to allow the police to order all HGVs to halt and park up in these conditions but no doubt the road transport lobby manager to get that quietly shelved. Now we have the same again.

Justin W
01 March 2018 13:53:13

Anybody who harboured any hope that the new BBC/MeteoGroup tie-up will live up to the Met Office contract will have had them blown away by the abomination of a forecast on Radio 4 at 12.57. The ghastly Louise Lear failed to give any forecast temperatures, any idea of conditions over the East of England and completely failed to give any forecast at all for London and the South East. It was the worst radio forecast I have ever heard.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
SJV
01 March 2018 14:12:41

Worst SNOW STORM in 50 years to hit in SEVEN HOURS - Killer Storm Emma to SMASH entire UK

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/925413/UK-snow-weather-snow-storm-Emma-forecast-Thursday-Friday-latest

UK to run out of gas TODAY: National Grid warns of energy crisis as snow storm Emma rages

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/925663/UK-snow-storm-Gas-runs-out-National-Grid-2018-weather

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Just read that second article and they have a slideshow of Storm Emma's impacts across the UK. Nice and misleading as it hasn't actually impacted the UK yet 

Downpour
01 March 2018 14:22:36

Worst SNOW STORM in 50 years to hit in SEVEN HOURS - Killer Storm Emma to SMASH entire UK

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/925413/UK-snow-weather-snow-storm-Emma-forecast-Thursday-Friday-latest

UK to run out of gas TODAY: National Grid warns of energy crisis as snow storm Emma rages

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/925663/UK-snow-storm-Gas-runs-out-National-Grid-2018-weather

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

 

The grammar in that piece is concerning. 

 

Met Office warnings predict up to 2 foot [50cm] of snow will fall across the southeast by Friday with Scotland facing similar amounts.

 

Should be two feet

 

The Daily Express is a national embarrassment. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

Downpour
01 March 2018 14:27:17

Anybody who harboured any hope that the new BBC/MeteoGroup tie-up will live up to the Met Office contract will have had them blown away by the abomination of a forecast on Radio 4 at 12.57. The ghastly Louise Lear failed to give any forecast temperatures, any idea of conditions over the East of England and completely failed to give any forecast at all for London and the South East. It was the worst radio forecast I have ever heard.

Originally Posted by: Justin W 

 

Yes, I think we can now safely conclude that the decision to move to a new – presumably cheaper – supplier was deeply wrongheaded. The BBC have been hopeless of late, using model runs when they have real radar data to draw upon (as I think Quantum and The Beast both pointed out last night). I cannot begin to imagine what the great weathermen of yore – the Fishes, Kettleys and MacAskills (RIP) would make of it all. 

 

MeteoGroup's Weather Pro app is, on balance, the best out there for medium range. But for real and present weather events you need a decent weatherman who knows his country and what he is doing.  


Chingford

London E4

147ft

ozone_aurora
01 March 2018 15:44:48

The Met Office text and radar forecasts, and current radar imagery has been down for 3 days.

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