The Weather Outlook

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Hungry Tiger
28 September 2017 18:54:42

Tricky temperature details within a relatively easy broader-scale setup developing next week; deep troughs near Greenland look very likely to throw a lot of warm air across N. Europe and Scandinavia at the upper levels, which then slows and takes on a general sinking tendency, promoting extensive high pressure for those regions. A 'Scuero High' as some call it - and something seen all too often mid-late last winter in place of the more effective (for wintry weather) standalone Scandinavian Highs. 

As it is, we're in mid-autumn and so the exact positioning and orientation of the extended ridge will make the difference between an 'Indian Summer' (this now being technically applicable following frosts in some spots earlier this month) and a run of very cool nights and fresh but still potentially very pleasant days (depending on how much of a breeze there is).

Either way, good odds on abundant dry weather which will be a welcome relief for many after a generally damp (in SE) to soaking wet (in N, particularly NW) Aug-Sep period. Assuming, that is, that some ex-tropical feature doesn't come along and upset the whole pattern again...!

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Excellent commentary there - Thanks.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

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Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Sharp Green Fox
28 September 2017 20:09:22

[quote=Hungry Tiger;930917]

 

Excellent commentary there - Thanks.

Agreed

Whether Idle
29 September 2017 19:31:37

A little bit beyond the reliable range, but CFS has a Kettley High with -10 uppers making it into Shetland by Nov 12th:


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 October 2017 06:34:29

Nothing very settled for the next week, with the ,ajor models keeping the NW wet and the SE (mainly) dry. After that, GFS keeps the same pattern but ECM and the link below suggest a wetter period for the whole country

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

All looks a bit different from the extensive warm high pressure cells we were being promised a short while ago


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Chichester 12m asl

Gusty
01 October 2017 07:10:53

The accumulated rainfall for the week ahead suggests a typically autumnal ridge / trough westerly set up. Orographic rainfall for the western highlands in any TM incursions. 

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doctormog
01 October 2017 09:16:46
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
01 October 2017 19:17:46

The Converyor Belt, Hadley Cells are right there in the Middle Lattitudes.

The Mild air is waving across, and there are some cold NW flows on a generally Mobile westerly to east moving trajectory.

Upto next 8 days nothing special is on the cards, this place can rest in peace and a mild Autumn is progressing hey.

There are some shots of cooler NW flows as well for the UK I can see that, next weekend though the mild westerlies and some cloud and wet interludes look like affecting UK and NW Europe again so let's just be kind and enjoy the sunshine and showers hey!.

GFS, ECMWF and the UKMO the big three are throwing us the progressive numbers so all is not lost.

It is threes for now huh!.

 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Stormchaser
01 October 2017 21:00:48

The lower-stratospheric and also tropospheric vortex looks very troubled in the foreseeable with a lot of excess heat over the Arctic finding its way upward to mess with the usual winding-up process.

It all sounds a lot like mid-late autumn last year, and seems to be enough for GFS to keep toying with blocking highs at the high latitudes. While these are unlikely to produce much of great interest in the UK in early-mid October, they do serve to move large areas of cold air out of the Arctic (and mild air into it - a positive feedback!) which look to send considerable portions of N. Asia into an early winter. 

So... we may well find ourselves being teased by cold pools to our east for even longer than usual this later autumn - winter .


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Hungry Tiger
02 October 2017 08:44:34

The lower-stratospheric and also tropospheric vortex looks very troubled in the foreseeable with a lot of excess heat over the Arctic finding its way upward to mess with the usual winding-up process.

It all sounds a lot like mid-late autumn last year, and seems to be enough for GFS to keep toying with blocking highs at the high latitudes. While these are unlikely to produce much of great interest in the UK in early-mid October, they do serve to move large areas of cold air out of the Arctic (and mild air into it - a positive feedback!) which look to send considerable portions of N. Asia into an early winter. 

So... we may well find ourselves being teased by cold pools to our east for even longer than usual this later autumn - winter .

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Good point there James.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
02 October 2017 10:14:30

Now it looks set to be dry with High Pressure ridge or neither pressure in charge over the Weekend, with temperatures around average or slightly above normal for October.

The models are toying with the Idea of a disrupted Polar Vortex, with northern regions in our vicinity being able to toss Low Pressure under these blocking high's, as James has pointed out.

Both GFS and ECMWF and also the UKMO are still going along fine.

Low Pressure and Westerly winds followed by a NW to North Flow this week, and Monday right now has Low Pressure with westerly flow, backing NW later today and on Tuesday, but the next North Atlantic Low pushes this system to our NE over North Europe and North Sea, by Thursday.

The other Low on Wednesday merges together with this Low, and the chilly airmass cross the UK on Thursday and Friday, easing down by Friday, with temperatures tumbling down.

Not bad for the start of October. Good Norway and Sweden High versus Low Pressure battle by Friday to Sunday period later this week etc.

A SE Tracking Low off the NW Atlantic, tracking under the Greenland Blocking High in the following Week is showing up on GFS and ECMWF models, and the track and impact on UK and NW Europe is still in the uncertain (too early to be clear camp!).

 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

Hippydave
02 October 2017 18:49:54

Toppler

 

Just warming up for winter

Both ECM and GFS up to T168 have the HP quickly topple over us and then settle over Europe, leaving us in a broadly West/South Westerly flow. ECM looks a little less settled to me, with HP having less of an influence, be interesting to see where the remainder of the run goes.

With the set up shown the South does best for any dryness, with it turning more unsettled the further North and West you are.

All in all pretty normal for the time of year


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Stormchaser
02 October 2017 19:40:51
Is it winter already? There's been a sudden large swing away from Mid-Atlantic ridging to European 😉

We'll see if it holds. Not a great time for model consistency - perhaps the disturbed vortex is a factor in this?


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T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 October 2017 06:41:47

Both ECM and GFS up to T168 have the HP quickly topple over us and then settle over Europe, leaving us in a broadly West/South Westerly flow. ECM looks a little less settled to me, with HP having less of an influence, be interesting to see where the remainder of the run goes.

With the set up shown the South does best for any dryness, with it turning more unsettled the further North and West you are.

All in all pretty normal for the time of year

Originally Posted by: Hippydave 

Rinse and repeat - looks to be mobile for the foreseeable.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
04 October 2017 06:24:31

Basic westerlies for the next week, but the weekend of the 14/15th looks as if we may get more of a focused hit - ECM just gefore the weekend, GFS just after.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


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Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
04 October 2017 07:03:53

Still time for change but the autumn doesn't look to be playing out like some of the seasonal models suggested. Things seems relatively benign for the time of year.


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Berkhamsted

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xioni2
04 October 2017 07:16:13

Still time for change but the autumn doesn't look to be playing out like some of the seasonal models suggested. Things seems relatively benign for the time of year.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think Oct-Dec will end up quite warm in the UK.

Brian Gaze
04 October 2017 07:41:33

 

I think Oct-Dec will end up quite warm in the UK.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

To be fair there was a strong signal for above average temperatures so to that extent most of the seasonals would be right. 


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Berkhamsted

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Solar Cycles
04 October 2017 07:48:21

 

I think Oct-Dec will end up quite warm in the UK.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Its very, very early days  but up here we're running some 2c below normal and the next seven days are projected to come in around normal or just below.

Brendon Hills Bandit
04 October 2017 19:30:48
I have a (hopeful) feeling that the seasonal models will be wrong, and that autumn into winter will see no establishment of a strong polar vortex! Against the odds, but it wouldn't be the first time it has happened - the winter of 2013-14 was infamously wet, but the seasonal models were generally going for an anticyclonic winter IIRC.
220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
05 October 2017 06:25:02

ECM has it in for us on Thu 12th - 975mb centred over the North Channel, and 516 mb uppers. GFS just keeps the westerlies rolling. But the situation is quite fluid, both these models show quite different timings for disturbances compared to yesterday.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Nordic Snowman
05 October 2017 07:21:55

 

To be fair there was a strong signal for above average temperatures so to that extent most of the seasonals would be right. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think the likelihood for higher temperatures is pretty high (as per the norm) and would suit me fine. The only real question is whether it will be wetter or drier than normal. The temperature front is quite easy to speculate on - with or without seasonal and daily models  The weather has been stuck for ages now and can be summed up very easily and goes something like this: A NW/SE split.... most unsettled in the N and W with the driest and brightest weather in the SE. All very boring but I will be happy enough as long as the temps stay as high as possible (relative to the time of year).


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Stormchaser
05 October 2017 08:57:31

 

Ouch ECM - that's a right pressure gradient you've got going on there! Good thing it's at 9 days range and at a time when GFS has a more amplified jet stream pattern that keeps the low to our NW and allows a nice warm ridge to build across NW Europe. Of course I mean warm relative to the time of year. Also note that 'nice' should only remain applicable to ridges in that location for another few weeks .


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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Hungry Tiger
05 October 2017 12:54:32

 

Ouch ECM - that's a right pressure gradient you've got going on there! Good thing it's at 9 days range and at a time when GFS has a more amplified jet stream pattern that keeps the low to our NW and allows a nice warm ridge to build across NW Europe. Of course I mean warm relative to the time of year. Also note that 'nice' should only remain applicable to ridges in that location for another few weeks .

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

That chart James for the 14th October looks amazing.

 


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 October 2017 06:16:44

Difficult to say anything sensible about the models when every day brings something different. For the coming week, it looks as if we shall hang on to some warmth as the westerlies have an occasional southerly component, and stay fairly dry, bar the NW as most of the LP systems do hang around up there. Some signals for the more disturbed and cooler weather to move south in the second week, but I won't hold my breath.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

Brian Gaze
07 October 2017 06:30:12

The most notable thing I can see is the potential warm up next week. Other than that it's an utter snooze fest IMHO. One of the most boring spells of weather I can recall and TBH there is plenty of competition. 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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