Amazing, didn't realise we were doing quite that well - thanks as always GW
Last night was slightly (around 0.5*C) warmer than the model consensus here with a 15.5*C minimum, and today has already surpassed the 26*C consensus maximum, so the local mean-to-date may well make it over halfway towards 20*C from 19.
A drop is likely tomorrow, though it could be only slight as the arrival of the cooler air has been delayed enough that a very warm mid-late morning, peaking in the mid-20s, is a possibility.
A slightly cooler than average Tuesday will likely push the mean-to-date back into the 18s, though only just.
Wednesday then looks close to average, perhaps Thursday too as a cooler night is countered by a warmer day. Friday sees a tropical maritime flow establishing so not as cool by night but perhaps not that warm by day due to cloud cover.
Overall I'd say a local value in the mid-18s is likely by the time Friday is done.
Then comes a weekend that looks likely to be dominated by a subtropical airmass down this way so the trend in the mean-to-date could well turn back around .
I expect this analysis of prospects is at least loosely valid for much of the CS and SE regions .
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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