Gray-Wolf
06 February 2017 15:51:44

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The Daily Express are strangely quiet of this upcoming spell still nothing in the paper / online


They've had it covered since August Gav!


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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS
Gavin D
06 February 2017 19:33:01
SNOWSTORM WARNING: Polar Vortex sends freezing plume from Siberia and Arctic to engulf UK

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/763843/Snow-forecast-UK-weather-updates-news-polar-vortex-Siberia-Arctic-Britain 
Gavin D
06 February 2017 20:56:51
Early next week

Cold easterly winds
Frosty mornings
Snow flurries

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38888388 
Tractor Boy
06 February 2017 22:14:10

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Early next week

Cold easterly winds
Frosty mornings
Snow flurries

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38888388


 


Very good use of the graphics. Let's hope he's on 21:55 duty more this week.


Dave
Farndale, North York Moors
Rob K
06 February 2017 23:34:24
"A few flakes in the wind" is the sum total of the excitement expected from Tomasz S. Wake me up when spring arrives...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome
schmee
07 February 2017 06:05:23
Local radio "expect snow flurries and showers for the foreseeable".
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
schmee
07 February 2017 06:10:00
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.13&lat=54.56&fcTime=1486425600 
Meanwhile the met office are not prepared to have a flutter with the current prediction. Panic buying etc. I might stock up on soup before it becomes public knowledge.
Observations from around GUILDFORD in SURREY and now Nottingham
Joe Bloggs
07 February 2017 08:50:31

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

"A few flakes in the wind" is the sum total of the excitement expected from Tomasz S. Wake me up when spring arrives...


You missed out his other bit: "we're not sure about snow amounts yet.. it's too early to say.. most of it probably in the east, but for many it will just be flakes in the wind".


CONTEXT Rob! ;-) 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Rob K
07 February 2017 11:16:05

Interesting piece about the lack of snow on the US east coast. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/06/wheres-winter-heres-why-this-season-has-been-so-strange-on-the-east-coast/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.8e99510ce773


 


"Furtado is also cautious to remind us that there have been cold shots on the East Coast, they just haven’t been sustained. That may have to do with what’s going onto our east.


“We’re not seeing blocking in the North Atlantic,” he noted. That’s critical for East Coast winter storms, which almost always require cold air to be “blocked” and held in place over the Northeast by strong high pressure over Greenland.


If there is no cold air dammed up and ready to go, the Mid-Atlantic is simply not going to see that much snow."


 


Seems strange because usually when we have the PV over Greenland and mild mush over here the east coast seems to do OK, so I don't see that Greenland blocking is required for them?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome
tallyho_83
07 February 2017 11:43:36

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Interesting piece about the lack of snow on the US east coast. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/02/06/wheres-winter-heres-why-this-season-has-been-so-strange-on-the-east-coast/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.8e99510ce773


 


"Furtado is also cautious to remind us that there have been cold shots on the East Coast, they just haven’t been sustained. That may have to do with what’s going onto our east.


“We’re not seeing blocking in the North Atlantic,” he noted. That’s critical for East Coast winter storms, which almost always require cold air to be “blocked” and held in place over the Northeast by strong high pressure over Greenland.


If there is no cold air dammed up and ready to go, the Mid-Atlantic is simply not going to see that much snow."


 


Seems strange because usually when we have the PV over Greenland and mild mush over here the east coast seems to do OK, so I don't see that Greenland blocking is required for them?



This is also an interesting article re ice cover over great lakes:


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/great-lakes-ice-cover-practically-non-existent/70000738


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
07 February 2017 11:44:39

Temperatures look set to break the record in Washington DC today reaching 21c:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/washington-dc/20006/daily-weather-forecast/327659?day=1



Compared to what they had last year this is a substantial period of warmer weather for them - at least we are not the only ones suffering from the lack of snow.


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
07 February 2017 11:49:05
A tweet from Matt Hugo:


Matthew Hugo โ€@MattHugo81 ยท 2h2 hours ago

A case of how amplified now by the looks, but phase 8 MJO likely in10 days or so. 10 to 14 day lag = poss blocked/cold regime by late Feb...


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
07 February 2017 13:00:25

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Feb 2017 to Tuesday 21 Feb 2017:


An east to south-easterly wind will gradually bring less cold air to most parts throughout this period. There is likely to be a lot of dry weather around, although it'll probably be rather cloudy. The best of any bright spells will be towards the west and northwest through the early part of the week, whereas some snow showers are likely in the east, with a small chance of these becoming heavier and spreading to central and some western areas. It will feel very cold in the easterly wind with a widespread night frost. Later in the period there is a chance of seeing some rain or snow affecting the west and northwest at times but elsewhere it should stay largely dry with snow showers becoming lighter and less frequent.


Updated at: 1241 on Tue 7 Feb 2017


UK Outlook for Wednesday 22 Feb 2017 to Wednesday 8 Mar 2017:


Through the rest of February, the preferred scenario is for conditions to remain largely settled overall, meaning that our weather will probably stay on the cold side. There are likely to be a lot of dry days and some sunny spells but the nights will be cold, probably with some frost and fog for some. There is a small risk of a few sleet or snow showers in southern and eastern parts, although confidence is low. Occasional but most likely short-lived spells of milder and wetter weather are possible, and these will most likely be in the west and northwest. The weather at the start of March currently looks rather uncertain, but there is a chance it could turn milder and more unsettled.


Updated at: 1214 on Tue 7 Feb 2017


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


warrenb
07 February 2017 14:23:00

A watching brief I would say. Models are wobbling and they are not going to change the text on 1 set of model runs. If the 12z go the way of ECM/GFS mid range, then expect the wording to change tomorrow.
Remember people always say these seem to be a day behind the models, there is reason for that.


Solar Cycles
07 February 2017 14:28:30

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


A watching brief I would say. Models are wobbling and they are not going to change the text on 1 set of model runs. If the 12z go the way of ECM/GFS mid range, then expect the wording to change tomorrow.
Remember people always say these seem to be a day behind the models, there is reason for that.


If they were to take a leaf out of the MOD thread then it would read like a manic depressives daily diary.๐Ÿ˜ฎ

Brian Gaze
07 February 2017 14:37:44

Originally Posted by: warrenb 


A watching brief I would say. Models are wobbling and they are not going to change the text on 1 set of model runs. If the 12z go the way of ECM/GFS mid range, then expect the wording to change tomorrow.
Remember people always say these seem to be a day behind the models, there is reason for that.



Indeed. The other point is the importance of blocking out your own personal weather preferences and looking at what the data actually shows. I'm increasingly of the view that (in general) women find this easier to do than men. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Solar Cycles
07 February 2017 14:48:53

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Indeed. The other point is the importance of blocking out your own personal weather preferences and looking at what the data actually shows. I'm increasingly of the view that (in general) women find this easier to do than men. 


๐Ÿ˜ฎ Sexism rearing its ugly head. ๐Ÿ˜‚

doctormog
07 February 2017 19:05:58

Yet at the end of the forecast on the website, he summarises things with a "cold biting easterly wind, rather cloudy and occasional snow showers".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

A strong emphasis on the cold feel

Friday's snow risk seems to be for eastern parts of N England and parts of E Scotland.


Edit: I have just found the 6:29 forecast and yes he started with that sun starting to feel a bit stronger but the words that preceded it are "it doesn't look as if spring is going to arrive any time soon"


Selective quoting is rather misleading. Judge the forecast for yourself at http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08cw162/bbc-news-at-six-07022017 (26 minutes in). Don't take my word for it.


Gavin D
07 February 2017 21:08:33
Next week

Cold easterlies
Snow flurries
Perhaps less cold later with winds from the south or south-east

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38899042 
PFCSCOTTY
07 February 2017 21:17:28

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Next week

Cold easterlies
Snow flurries
Perhaps less cold later with winds from the south or south-east

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38899042


 


so nothing to exciting for anyone based on that! 

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